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NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday's gap up to 2469.50 was at or above the two prior sessions' highs. It was maintained through the open, but not extended until triggering late bias-up. Extending higher into the noon hour peaked upon touching the morning's 2474.00 bias-up target, which also satisfied an intraday test of 2471.00-2473.50. All of which tracked perfectly against the session's topping template, including a reaction back down into the prior two sessions' range at 2462.50. Headlines prevented the reaction from playing out naturally, which probably prevented the last 60-90 minutes from extending down to fresh lows. WedEX triggered passively bearish. Overnight action's new info... Yesterday afternoon's 2462.50 low was retested soon after the Globex open. It held as the lower-end of a flat-to-higher range. Europe's opens triggered a blip-up to 2468.50, which disappeared almost as quickly as it had appeared. More so, it retraced several ticks deeper than its origin, attacking the overnight and yesterday's 2462.50 low.. then rejecting a 2-point blip up by spiking back down sharply to fresh lows at 2461.00. If, then... Yesterday afternoon's last downleg developed exclusively during the 10-15 minutes when the bias environment lapse comes within view. The actual 2:30 lapse didn't extend the effort that was already underway. This is a bullish setup, essentially a stretched rubber band that snaps back. Which it did, but only to retrace a minimum 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the stretch. A more impressive snap is likely if sellers don't control overnight action. So, are they? So far. Even the blip-up at Europe's opens has bearish characteristics. The best evidence would be in testing the bias-down signal, and then triggering it, or not. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2467.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2471.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2466.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2461.50 bias-down signal. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome it's Thursday it's time for Thursday's Morning Market or the critical question this morning is who owns the night and not decisive but it's not buyers sellers haven't produced a fresh low but they did take price back down here's yesterday's clothes here's yesterday's aloe and the overnight low that tested it read tested it remember this is typically a bullish setup bullish meaning that the selling pressure Lancer the back to hear developed not prematurely but it definitely had potential to be to extend it could only have attracted sponsorship which it didn't did not had not at the right time at 2:30 so it turned out to be not necessarily week and it just fully extended now that did produce a reaction up at 2:30 as of 2:30 no fresh aloe the reaction up measured 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retrace 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the drop so just a healthy constructive corrective bounce not quite the rubber band snap that it could be but it was the bare minimum if it's going to be anything more it's going to be obvious that it's going to be more at the open and that didn't get anywhere that premise didn't improve it all last night tried to here's your UPS opens Market Edmond ranging flat tire off the over of the overnight lows retest yesterday's love the market had been ranging flat tire and then flipped up on Europe's reactions Europe's opens but only temporarily and have disappeared almost as quickly as it had appeared and more so because the origin has been retraced and that's not letting go so again it's not decisive who owned the night but it wasn't buyers and it adds to the bearishness potential bearishness get for the open resumed yesterday's USA afternoons to climb it adds to the bearishness having bounced to retest yesterday afternoon's high without probing above it maintaining the probe above it also adding to this morning if there is any so biosignal but it'll be a helpful indication as to whether sellers are we gaining controller or retaining control from yesterday afternoon's reaction down and explaining that even deeper holding 2463 especially if 6150 had been touched already holding 2463 is probably going to be an indication that sellers art at least not this morning we're gaining or asserting their control so the consequence if sellers do take control through the morning the consequence is to launch a new down like at least a retest Friday's the Gap back to Friday's close the overnight lows do constitute enough of a new trend extreme because there was a trend reversal signal can play so the overnight lows do constitute enough of a trend extreme Globex Trend extreme that that's an attraction to and then of course there's unfinished business below at 2425 this Gap or at least likely attraction to be probed by about four points and a 24-21 so 2421 up to 24 25 and albums it seems more tied to the gyro although it's not producing fresh Lowe's in fact producing a relative high or higher and higher low relative to the euro which is probing lowers we just saw in the extended actually much higher overnight basically 7960 that's not a break out clothes and it's from an island and so we expect the balance to fail 7960 7965 pretty critical area and pretty good candidate for a balance to fail it tested what would be the trigger that would tell us that the bounce it likely failed it is probably not going to be it's really not going to be a good trigger intraday probably not going 1995 to the close is just refueling sellers for the bigger dip update the text of the first Tradepost real quickly and then send out this video but essentially she looks like sellers are decisively in control over night I'd like to see a bounce back up into the range a little bit back up to 63 don't get too carried away otherwise this is going to create a gap down within the range that is difficult to extend out or at least reliable so what it right now to 6461 even gapping Down Under The Lord of the Rings you know if we don't get down under 59 lot of support 59 this is not as yet.

Post-open bounce snaps back down. A lot. The pre-open test of 2459.00 was duplicated at the open. Its 5-point reaction up fulfilled the bounce to 2463.00 described in the Market Tour as being optimal before shorting. Potential for extending higher began deteriorating with every minute that didn't leverage the bounce into a rally. Potential for extending higher disappeared entirely as the 2461.50 bias-down signal failed to hold. Aided by a rumor (yesterday it was a headline) the drop extended down through the 2455.50 bias-down target in time to renew the signal. The renewed bias-down target at 2450.50 was soon tested down to 2449.75. A corrective bounce has returned to 2450.50. Any lower low would essentially confirm this morning's downleg remains intact, and intends to extend down considerably. Yes, this could be one of those days -- relentless downtrending interrupted only briefly by substantial bounces.

Could this be a low, instead? The 2450.50 renewed bias-down target is essentially the halfway point back to last week's lows. That's not often durable. Back above 2457.50 would be more credible. And the gap back to Friday's 2440.00 close wants to be filled, probably down to 2437.50. That doesn't include last Thursday night's lows that are likely to be tested, too, and broken on the way to 2425.24 and 2421.00.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2458.50 2457.50 ...would target  2464.00  2463.00 Bias-down: under  2450.50  2449.50 ...would target 2445.25 2444.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Now retesting Friday's range. The open's drop to 2449.75 had been recovered to test the 2457.50 maximum corrective bounce limit. It was still being tested as this morning's 11:30 bias environment exit came within view 10-15 minutes prior. And then it was being tested no longer. That preliminary window trended down into 11:30, and then trended down more. Strong-handed reinforcements were arriving, helping us to anticipate trending down further still. The noon hour's entry had probed fresh lows, and the noon hour slid through more of them down to 2440.75.

Now the afternoon's 2449.50 bias-down signal has been renewed by not recovering its 2444.25 bias-down target through 1:20. The renewed bias-down targets are 2440.75 and 2437.50. I identified the first before it was met, and price action since then has ranged flat-to-higher.

A corrective bounce could test 2448.00. Exiting the bias environment above the 2449.50 bias-down signal could launch a short-squeeze into the proxy or position-squaring windows. But the gap back to Friday's 2440.00 close will need to be filled, which would make 2437.50 likely to be tested, too. And there's still Thursday night's Globex lows.

Thursday's drop either ended the decline, or took us to the brink of it getting serious. This week's overnight and intraday tests of the 2471.00-2473.50 maximum corrective bounce limits essentially reset last week's drop from its Pivot Reversal session. It was not just one, but two opportunities for the rally's sponsorship to reassert itself. Neither was exploited, so the correction's origin below became the next leg's target. Reacting down Wednesday was almost required. Extending down Thursday was more than required. Now almost any delay to extending down would be considered sellers refueling. No delay is required, not without gapping up above Thursday afternoon's 2445.75 high. Any shallower open -- gapping or otherwise -- would likely resolve down to 2421.11-2425.25 and possibly lower.

There's even potential for gapping down under 2411.00 and extending lower from there. It was the least likely of the three likeliest scenarios we discussed during the Saturday Review. It's still the least likely, but likelier than it was at this price last week. That was after Friday Factors, but now they can help.

Also helpful to the decline is the bearish WedEX that had triggered after Wednesday's close. Whether it plays itself out already Friday morning, or dooms a bounce to failure Friday afternoon, it reqiures fresh lows at some point. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2435.540  2434.50 ...would target  2441.75  2441.00 Bias-down: under  2427.00 2426.25 ...would target  2422.00  2421.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.