Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) A 30-point overnight collapse down to 3350.00 had demonstrated the vulnerability of no unfinished business above. Its recovery struggled to maintain positive territory above the 3368.00 prior close. The pre-open bounce reacted down from 3370.00, the noon hour attacked 3373.00, and the afternoon got to 3373.50. The afternoon slid to fresh post-open lows at 3356.00, where a last-minute blip-up to 3368.00 reacted down once again. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night's open was flat with Friday's 3368.00 cash session close. Trending up probed Friday's high by 2 points up to 3375.50 before midnight. Ranging choppily sideways since then has included a blip-down to 3365.00 at Europe's opens, and then a blip-up to 3376.50. But the pre-midnight range persists. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Closing within the orbit of Friday morning's range had made its 3377.00 unfinished business likelier to be retested sooner rather than later. Attacking it to within 3-6 ticks can neutralize it, and it was just attacked to within 2 ticks. Its intraday test isn't required, but still likelier than not if the open is also within the orbit of Friday morning's range. That could be the catalyst needed to break the rally out of its stall. Reversing down into negative territory through the open would otherwise be credible for trending down this morning. Meanwhile, last week's first three intraday slides were reactions to intraday rallies, and the last two intraday slides developed without first rallying. The overnight rally makes another intraday slide already credible if it were going to develop at all, and especially credible for extending if developing through the open. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3366.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3372.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3377.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Pre-open extension hanging on to its gains. Fluctuating overnight around this morning's 3372.50 bias-up signal broke higher up to 3379.00 just before the open, and briefly extended up to 3381.00. Its reaction down to 3374.00 held well above the 3372.50 to cleanly trigger bias-up. Its 3384.25 bias-up target is in-play. Fresh highs are already attacking 3383.00 -- probing new recovery highs. Meanwhile, 3 of the first hour's 5 15-minute checkpoints have overlapped the 3388.75 open. This would signal a Dry Cleaners Morning if developed between bias signals. It doesn't prevent extending to a target, but keeps the burden of proof on buyers to gain traction. Just coming to within 3-6 ticks of a target can neutralize it, at least to disqualify it from becoming unfinished business. Triggering a sell signal into a Monday afternoon after rejecting fresh highs can be a very powerful reversal.

MON P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3383.50 signal would target 3393.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3370.50 signal would target 3360.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3388.50 3383.50 ...would target 3398.00 3393.00 Bias-down: under 3375.25 3370.50 ...would target 3365.00 3360.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Holding up, and holding out. Consolidating today's gap up at or under last week's highs has formed a narrowly ranging session. No intraday trending, while repeatedly fluctuating around the 3379.00 open. This morning's 3384.25 bias-up target was never touched. But attacking it to within 3-6 ticks disqualified it from becoming unfinished business. 3384.25 may yet be tested as sellers miss multiple opportunities to reverse momentum down. This afternoon's 3383.50 bias-up signal could be probed in the process. Probing higher during the no-bias environment would require being retraced, but not very much. Although reversing down has become less likely until a fresh high were probed, reversing under 3377.00 would have room down to this afternoon's 3370.50 bias-down signal before suggesting something more substantial underway.

Sunday night's flat open improved to fluctuate all night around Friday's ~3373.25 highs. Improving pre-open gapped up Monday to fluctuate all day around last week's ~3382.50 highs. And narrowly, with only a couple of interim dips. There is nothing predictive in gapping up to hover narrowly under prior highs through multiple timing windows. This is underscored by closing the cash session flat with the 3378.75 open. Overbought RSIs require the morning's 3382.75 high's retest. Oversold RSIs all but require the afternoon's 3375.25 low's retest, already attacked to within 1 tick post-close. Monday morning's 3384.25 bias-up target similarly all but requires a test, already attacked to within 6 ticks at the morning's high. Nothing requires resolving in either direction, but extended narrowing ranges do tend to break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. The past week of chipping away at 3383.00 makes at least a momentary probe above it increasingly likely. The bearish scenario would either take the probe as a stretched rubber band to snap back down. Gapping down first would be credible for extending down, but probably not durably. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

TUE A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3383.50 signal would target 3393.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3370.50 signal would target 3360.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3388.50 3383.50 ...would target 3398.00 3393.00 Bias-down: under 3375.25 3370.50 ...would target 3365.00 3360.25 Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.