Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Friday's expiration session was greeted by an overnight 30-point rally that tested 2878.50. Its pre-open reaction only threatened the 2860.00-2862.00 support area and never suggested any intent other than resolving up. After only firming into the bias timing window, suddenly surging 15 points fulfilled the rally's 2881.50-2883.50 likely objective. Extending another 10 points higher to 2892.50 defined the session high that held through the noon hour and through the afternoon. A last-minute blip-up attacked 2895.00 but settled back within the earlier range. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) Sunday night's open spiked up almost 18 points to attack 2908.00, and quickly pulled back to 2901.00, forming a sideways range that would persist through midnight. Soon probing fresh highs, the rally extended to greet Europe's opens at 2918.00 and up to 2921.00, now 30 points above Friday's close. A 10-point dip was recovered almost entirely when a headline (Germany stimulus announcement) triggered a surge up to 2923.25. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Regardless of whether the opening print were to gap away from Friday's close, a bearish WedEX influence would be obvious at least coming out of the opening 15 minutes of volatility, if not yet throughout it. Retesting overnight highs would not be necessary before trending back down. Avoiding early bearish influence could trend up through the morning instead, regardless of having rallied overnight by so much already. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2907.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2903.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2698.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2696.00 bias-up signal.

Two bearish setups in the running. The overnight rally eventually got up to 2928.50, probing the 2925.25-2933.00 resistance band that had held prior highs for three days. Its 10-point reaction down attacked 2918.00, retracing enough to greet the open at 2925.25.

So, 2925.25-2933.00 was touched post-open. Not recovering through a relevant window would mean it had held its test. And it wasn't recovered.

The opening 15 minutes of volatility's two lower lows and a lower high qualified as trending down. This keeps alive the bearish WedEX's potential influence for this morning. It also means the relentless overnight trending did not attract reinforcements. And this means the rally isn't likely to resume this morning. 1-minute RSI avoided becoming oversold all the way down to 2915.50. We were expecting that to produce at least a corrective bounce, which is now testing 2922.50. Perhaps it will be even more productive, if only to prevent lower lows. Back under 2918.75 would start to signal lower lows underway.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2928.25 2928.75 ...would target 2934.00 2934.50 Bias-down: under 2920.75 2921.50 ...would target 2914.75 2915.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Can the rally extend? If the bearish WedEX influenced this morning, then it prevented the relentless overnight rally from extending post-open. Pulling back 10 points to 2915.50 from the open was retraced entirely and then some into the bias environment exit, but only retraced. Now this afternoon's 2928.75 bias-up has triggered late. The grace period ended 2 minutes before returning to 2928.75, which would have triggered noN-bias. One difference is that noN-bias would allow trending back under 2928.75, instead of targeting 2934.50. So, a sell signal would be less credible for contradicting the bias-up, but I'm willing to give it some room because of the sub-optimal bias-up. In fact, a sell signal at 2927.25 is being tested now. Back above 2930.75 would signal that only a pullback had tested 2927.25, and that the test was done, being reversed up to fresh highs.

Rallying 38 points overnight to 2928.50 gapped up 30-33 points Monday. Initially retracing 10 points down to 2915.50. was recovered back to the pre-open high during the noon hour. Probing higher to 2932.25 was brief, but its reaction down to 2922.00-2923.00 didn't qualify as rejecting the afternoon's higher high, let alone as reversing the trend back down. Ultimately, the 2925.25-2933.00 range was still being tested until Monday's final minutes, and not rejected. This range recently limited previous rally efforts, and launched steep, deep reactions down. Avoiding the same resolution this time relies largely upon extending higher without delay -- essentially, rallying again overnight to gap up Tuesday. A deeper, steeper reaction down could also be avoided by bottoming at 2911.00 or 2903.00. Holding either level's test would not ensure recovering to higher highs, but dipping to Friday's 2892.50 "lower prior highs" would likely be too deep to be recoverable. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2927.75 2928.25 ...would target 2934.00 2934.50 Bias-down: under 2917.25 2918.00 ...would target 2910.25 2911.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.