Stock Market Trade Signals - 09-06-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Friday's gap up from 2166.00 quickly extended to probe Monday's 2182.00 prior high by almost 2 points. Reversing back down 12 points through the noon hour still remained more than 5 points into positive territory. The balance of the session was influenced by the lack of influence, being a Friday afternoon, and price drifted back up to 2179.00 into the close. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open resumed Friday afternoon's upward drift back up to 2182.00. That held through the night, before reacting down to 2175.00 during the Labor Day holiday morning. Monday night;s action has drifted back up to test 2182.25. If, then... Last week crossed its hump without breaking under prior lows, despite a couple of attempts. Now the holiday is being exited without yet converting the tests of support into a break above resistance. An early rally attempt would be more credible for extending higher than would a delayed attempt, but an early rally attempt would still be vulnerable to failure. Retracing Friday's gap up could occur on any timetable. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2183.50 would be likely to trigger the 2182.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2180.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Opening surge slingshots back down. Rallying this morning had to begin immediately to be credible. And even then, immediately rallying would be vulnerable to failure. Reversing down did not require any particular timing. Firming to open at the 2182.00 bias-up signal added 3 ticks quickly and then lost them quicker. The first half-hour only overlapped 2180.50, continually. But it finally broke lower, triggering no-bias. An offsetting test of the 2174.25 bias-down signal has been fulfilled already. Probing it down to 2173.00 was recovered through 10:30 to avoid invalidating the no-bias. So, this is likely to morning's low. The open's continual overlap of 2180.50 makes it a candidate for attracting price back up to it. Breaking under 2174.00 would make fresh lows likelier -- "no-bias trending" if broken too early, and less able to extend down.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2185.00 2183.50 ...would target  2190.50  2189.00 Bias-down: under  2178.50  2177.00 ...would target 2172.75  2171.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Support test produces resistance test. I noted during the pre-market Tour that direction wasn't the only question to answer this morning. Trending, at all, was still not assured. In fact, this morning's drop to the bias-down signal has recovered to retest its opening peak, and Friday's highs. Trending beyond Friday's range has yet to develop -- let alone, to be indicated. This morning's 2182.00 bias-up signal held its test and tested its 2174.25 bias-down signal. Now this afternoon's 2183.50 bias-up signal has been tested, and back under 2180.50 would start to signal another downdraft underway. The range need no t break either way today. But trending after the bias environment start lapsing would be more credible for extending.

Tuesday afternoon's narrow ranging between 2180.50-2181.50 finally broke out. But not until the position-squaring window had begun lapsing at 3:52. And it didn't extend above the noon hour's 2183.50 high until having come within 3 minutes of the cash session close. Not to mention that the narrow ranging didn't gain any traction. None of which precludes extending higher. Or extending higher without first gapping up. But extending higher from this base would be very vulnerable to the same rejection as prior probes of the area above. More so, extending higher without gapping up. Gapping down deeply enough would be bearish. Having trended up into Tuesday's close, gapping down Wednesday under Tuesday afternoon's 2180.50 low could form a session-long decline. While that would marginalize sellers for the day, it could be contained by the gap back down to Thursday's 2166.00 close. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2190.25 2189.00 ...would target 2196.75  2195.50 Bias-down: under  2179.00  2177.75 ...would target 2173.75  2172.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.