Stock Market Trade Signals - 09-15-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday's open had been on-track to be greeted by a narrow overnight 2492.00-2494.00 range. Then rumors of an impending N. Korea missile launch triggered a plunge to 2487.50. I'd already described a retest of Wednesday's 2489.00 low as the only weakness worth buying, not even imagining a headline would trigger its test. A pre-open bounce back to 2492.00 almost prevented exploiting it, but the open dipped back down to 2489.00. The morning's bias environment recovered to fresh highs at the morning's 2496.00 bias-up signal. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower down to 2492.50, still inhibited by the pre-open rumor. Overnight action's new info... The other shoe finally dropped when N. Korea launched another missile over Japan. Its reaction was slightly deeper, down to 2487.00. The balance of the night worked its way back up to within 3 ticks of yesterday's 2494.50 cash session close. Currently a reaction down is testing 2490.50 as support. If, then... Recovering yesterday from the post-open 2489.00 test had left no bullish reason for its retest. Last night's test doesn't qualify. But that exemption is now unavailable to a pre-open test. Its retest would just as likely launch a corrective leg, potentially targeting 2477.00 (+/- 2 points). That might be difficult to fit in ahead of this afternoon's passively bullish WedEX influence. Meanwhile, this being expiration, trending through the opening 15 minutes of volatility is often predictive of the session's overall direction. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2490.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2488.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2495.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2496.00 bias-up signal. Phonetic dictation... Uber home from where right good morning it's Friday time for Friday's Morning Market or its expiration we have a passively bullish wed x passably bullish wed x influence for Friday afternoon or Monday morning. For this morning doesn't mean it's irrelevant for this morning because what that passively bullish afternoon influence of hits in if it is possible to be anticipated does for the morning is limits the options are opportunities the actual templates that we can apply so that basically makes it difficult to put in a significant drop another words we've been talking about a pullback potential to 2779 there's pretty much equal opportunity for each of those we've been talking about and it took last night at the open another the action of the rumor that had triggered the pre open plunge yesterday the actual flying to trigger drop yesterday and some classes 9450 this recovered within three tix at 9375 someone impressive but at the same time little Eerie that's kind of lot of optimism really a lot of optimism there and ineffectual as well since it hasn't recovered entirely just too with it three tix so I just to be on guard there's really nothing about this pattern that says we can't head lower especially if 2489 is touched or probe or broken through or at any other time then the opening 15 minutes of volatility and again that takes down too bad here if that could get done and have time to stabilize a head of the afternoon and the bullish wed x influence would be that much more credible it's tough to see tough to see that happening at could certainly invert which is something we'll talk about this morning if the potential is there remember there's even potential like that what if we do get something going to the downside if not then 2477 area down to the 63 61-63 area so it's not that there's no downside and it's not that the bullish FedEx Canton vert but difficult to get any higher if either of those were put into play meanwhile gone launched that headline seemingly not going to pop up in the next 24 48 72 hours that may clear the way for probing higher getting up to 2,500 and we really don't have a good long after signal yesterday yes they are willing if we were willing to take her seriously yesterday's pre-open Bank of England comments that a company that's policy statement Trigger 2 Gap up that's really tough to reverse you can see why they're does extending even more sharply higher overnight and then the Aussie which get this done and he really has its trying it has no unfinished business below and now an opportunity to retest basically the 81 area gold didn't get to 1318 which was basically targeting after a couple days of lower lows 13 1852 1320 did get to 1320 actually 1950 in the wake of all that news yesterday morning closing about 1334 5034 basically would be bullish does attempted after he has closed its attempt it overnight third time's a charm there anyway 1334 it from covered says that the pool back is done silver has been trying to get out of 1790 was a little late it's only one time one attempt and now it's threatening to do with it had a lot of trouble doing on its own previously and that is actually test 1770 but we've got here is just basically 1788 1795 signal there is no unfinished business even though so at this point what at least trigger another dip back down to 295 tomorrow we have the Saturday review at 9:30 right now we've got a couple hours or an hour I'll see you then good luck today .

Almost a "dry cleaners morning." The pre-open attack on 2489.00 nearly tested it as support, and nearly tested it post-open. Both were avoided, and so was an increased likelihood for trending down. Surging into and out of the open touched 2439.50. Reacting down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility touched 2491.50. A second opportunity to collapse was avoided. This is a no-bias environment. And having avoided a touch of either of the 2488.75 and 2496.00 bias signal, no offsetting test of the other bias signal is in-play. But testing a bias signal should define that end of the window's range. Until the bias environment begins lapsing.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2499.75 2497.50 ...would target  2505.75 2503.50 Bias-down: under  2484.50  2492.25 ...would target 2488.75  2486.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

How passive can passively bias be? This morning's no-bias environment probed fresh highs up to 2496.75 high. Testing this morning's 2496.00 bias-up signal defined the window's upper-end. Price action since then has been contained within a narrow 2-point range down to 2494.25. Now the afternoon's no-bias has triggered. Friday afternoon's are more notorious for no action than for suddenly trending when there hasn't been any. Absent another missile threat, the session's only remaining potential influence is the passively bullish WedEX. Its only qualification is to recover any dips, and not necessarily to trend up. Meanwhile, the no-bias environment should be contained within its 2492.25 and 2497.50 bias signals. Until the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30, or that comes within view 10-15 minutes earlier, which would be free to trend either way.

Thursday's post-close plunge was "the other shoe to drop." The session had been greeted by N. Korea preparing a launch, so it was a nicely book-ended by the actual launch. Friday's open was greeted with almost a complete recovery of the second plunge. It was extended back to prior highs during the morning, and to new highs into the close. The new high close fulfilled the minimum requirement that was created by Tuesday's confirmed breakout, which had required an eventual higher close. It was barely replaced by a new trend high close on a Friday, a setup that also requires an eventual higher close. Expirations don't normally coincide with trend changes, anyway. Meanwhile, the passively bullish WedEX was influential Friday afternoon. So, it's likely to be influential Monday morning, too. We'll discuss the specifics of that setup, and other analytical observations, during this weekend's Saturday Review at 9:30. ITS URL IS CHANGING, so be sure to login from the email you'll receive in the morning. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2502.50 2500.25 ...would target  2509.25  2507.00 Bias-down: under  2493.50  2491.25 ...would target 2490.25  2486.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.