Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Overnight ranging up to 3006.00 and down to 2993.00 -- from one bias signal to the other -- foreshadowed Tuesday's inability to trend. The open's range was also contained, and warned of a Dry Cleaners morning. Afternoon ranging was slightly more pronounced, but mostly narrower. The position-squaring window finally launched a singular 8-1/2 point leg up to 3009.00. The late short-squeeze suggests the intraday pessimists were moving to neutral or long, becoming potential sellers that can help to pressure price back down. Probing above Mon-Tue 3005.00 highs began too late to be strong-handed sponsorship. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Further proving that Tuesday's late surge to 3009.00 was only a short-squeeze, it didn't advance by a single tick after the close. The Globex open immediately began retracing to it, soon probing back into Mon-Tue range, and greeting Europe's opens from 3002.50. A bounce to 3007.00 has been retraced entirely down to 3002.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Anxiousness ahead of this afternoon's FOMC events wasn't likely inhibiting yesterday, but it is usually a factor once this morning's volatility subsides. Vulnerability to intraday testing 2988.00 remains, along with attractions under it to 2980.50 and 2975.00. None of which is required, so potential to rally first can't be ignored -- especially the longer that a break lower is delayed. Yesterday's late squeeze recovered back into Friday's range, requiring even more so to greet Wednesday higher if the morning intends to rally. Otherwise, the short-squeeze's late test of resistance and neutralized sellers is vulnerable to greeting Wednesday's open back within Mon-Tue's range, if not on its way lower. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3004.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3010.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3001.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2999.50 bias-down signal.

Flat-to-higher, but how much higher? More proof yesterday's late surge was only a weak-handed short-squeeze: The overnight pullback from 3009.00 got to 3000.25. And more: Its reaction up to 3005.50 was retraced by a post-open dive to 2997.50. That tested the 2999.50 bias-down signal. It also threatened my pre-open warning that signals aren't likely to produce more than several points. But the bias-down signal held and the 3004.50 opening high has been retraced. Having held a test of the 2999.50 bias-down signal through 10:15, an offsetting test of the 3010.50 bias-up signal is in-play. While its eventual test is likely, generating sponsorship ahead of FOMC events can be difficult. Potential for a bigger pre-FOMC bounce doesn't prevent an interim drop, even below the open's 2997.50 low -- even by a lot, while still being likely to recover. Back under 3000.25 would start to suggest the detour is unfolding, instead of first testing the bias-up signal.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3002.00 3005.00 ...would target 3007.50 3010.50 Bias-down: under 2995.00 2998.00 ...would target 2987.75 2990.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Last-minute pessimism ahead of the news. An offsetting test of this morning's 3010.50 bias-up signal was left outstanding, so it became "unfinished business" above. The first hour's bounce up to 3004.50 has only trended back down, first to the  morning's 2998.50 bias-down signal, and now lower to 2995.00. From a contrarian perspective, last-minute pessimism ahead of news can be bullish. Not necessarily immediately -- bad news still deserves an initially negative knee-jerk reaction. But triggering this afternoon's 2998.00 bias-down signal doesn't prevent detouring up before meeting its 2990.75 bias-down target. Interestingly, five consecutive bias environments have essentially ranged narrowly sideways, overlapping each other. Greeting FOMC news in this setup tends to attract the close back into the same range. We'll revisit that potential before the close, but meanwhile interim price action can be very volatile.

Wednesday's open was greeted back at the upper-end of the 2996.50-3005.00 range. That defines the bulk of intraday ranging since Monday's gap down. Sunday night had probed under the range down to 2983.50, and Tuesday's close had probed above it up to 3009.00. But the range persisted, and the morning's bias environment overlapped Monday and Tuesday's bias environments. Multiple consecutive overlapping timing windows is an interesting setup into FOMC policy statements. The range tends to probe -- and not necessarily just one end of it -- but the close tends to return to the within the prevailing range. The knee-jerk reaction to Wednesdays FOMC blipped-up to 3005.00, then began trending down through 2996.50. An intraday test of 2988.00 was finally produced, along with its next lower objective at 2980.50 (to within 1 tick) while the bias environment lapsed. The balance of the session rallied until meeting the morning's unfinished business above at 3010.50. The FOMC setup makes a convincing trending attempt likely to retrace back within the prevailing range. Only the trending attempt below the range was retraced. The later probe above it avoided a 3006.00 sell signal targeting 2999.75-3001.50. Its test isn't required, but its break would suggest that strong-handed buyers still haven't arrived. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3009.25 3012.25 ...would target 3016.50 3019.50 Bias-down: under 2999.50 3002.50 ...would target 2993.50 2996.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.