Stock Market Trade Signals - 09-21-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Like morning, like afternoon? Tuesday's gap up had failed two attempts to extend above 2143.00, and instead reversed down into and out of the noon hour to 2131.00. The afternoon's weak-handed bounce to 2138.75 failed to gain traction above any relevant price at a relevant timing window. So it was retraced entirely back into the close. The morning's "unfinished business below" at 2128.25 was attacked to within 3 ticks coming out of the close, which was enough to neutralize its attraction. Overnight action's new info... Price was still hovering at Tuesday's lows into the BOJ announcement, which triggered a spike down to 2126.25. It recovered as quickly, and the recovery extended substantially. Probing yesterday's highs by 2 ticks up to 2144.00 finally reacted back down to test yesterday afternoon's 2138.75 bounce high as support by almost 1 point.. If, then... The overnight spike down not only tested yesterday morning's unfinished business, which had been neutralized already, but also oversold RSIs at Monday's low. Now indicated to gap up around 23142.00 for a third consecutive session, overbought RSIs at Monday morning's 2146.75 high are likely to be tested. And it's unlikely to offer durable resistance on the way up to last Monday's highs around 2151.00. But it would have to done quickly this morning, and aggressively, before price action can become paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of the afternoon's FOMC policy statement AND Yellen's quarterly Q&A. Perhaps obligatory resistance around 2146.75 separates the recovery into stages, and still leaves enough time to react down from testing the prior highs. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2139.75 would be likely to trigger the 2136.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2143.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2141.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Opening surge hangs on. The open surged through yesterday afternoon's 2138.75 bounce high on the way to 2142.50. A pullback to 2139.75 held as expected, and resolved up to 2144.25. Although the actual path here was a little different., that's not a new level, not for this week. Monday and Tuesday both gapped up to this area. Monday exceeded it to attack 2147.00, and Tuesday only attacked 2144.00. Both resolved down sharply. Resolving differently today is not ensured. But it's likely. And the more hesitation now to extending higher, the likelier that is ineffectual pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Impending news like this afternoon's FOMC events create anxiousness that could trigger selling. And already extending higher does create more room to expend selling pressure without it impacting the upside. Back under 2140.25 could extend back under yesterday afternoon's high again to 2133.00, and still be likely to recover.

Otherwise, even the most bullish scenario need not resolve up immediately. But ranging flat-to-higher this morning -- perhaps up to 2146.00-2147.00 -- is likelier than reversing down.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2150.00 2142.00 ...would target  2154.75  2147.00 Bias-down: under  2140.75  2133.00 ...would target 2135.75  2127.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bias-down avoided ahead of FOMC events, but not selling. This open's recovery to the 2144.00 overnight high did not extend higher. The 2139.25 open gave way just minutes before coming within view of the bias environment lapsing. No until the noon hour had been entered did its break accelerate, sliding to 2131.50 at the noon hour's low. Exiting the noon hour bounced to 2137.50. Another reaction down held comfortably above the 2133.00 bias-down signal to avoid triggering it. This is a no-bias environment.

While opening strength didn't trend higher, it did hold up high enough and for long enough to create an anchor. The anchor creates context for assuming any subsequent selling pressure is weak-handed, temporary. That selling pressure had room down to 2133.00, which the noon hour held as support. Now a lot of selling pressure has been expended without gaining traction for the effort, and never probing negative territory.

The most bullish scenario would greet FOMC from above 2140.50, but that seems unlikely now. Even that wouldn't necessarily prevent an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down, but the reaction would likely recover. Regardless, not quickly recovering a reaction down would leave upside attractions behind.

2152.25 is the highest calculable retracement of last Monday's consolidation. Room for noise above it at 2153.25 was being overlapped as the positions-squaring window was entered. Not exceeded, but overlapped. Probing any higher, however much higher, would not have any predictive value. In fact, fresh highs went on to probe significantly higher to 2157.50.While a reaction down would be required to retest that high, a reaction down isn't any less likely. A reaction down may even be likelier. That's despite Wednesday afternoon's rally having gained traction by entering the final hour above the bias environment's high, and then trending to fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. Already extending higher has rewarded those buyers. Overbought RSIs at Wednesday's high will require an eventual retest in case of reversing down overnight without yet probing higher. That would be the more bullish scenario, at least near-term to enable a morning rally. But extending the rally is not at all assured, as retesting last Monday's highs has neutralized a great deal of sponsorship. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2168.00  2160.00 ...would target  2173.25  2165.50 Bias-down: under  2156.75 2149.00 ...would target  2150.75  2142.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.