Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Rallying Tuesday afternoon without gaining traction for the effort had set a high bar for extending the rally Wednesday morning. But the 3309.50 open had retraced the 3320.00 overnight high back to Tuesday's high. And the open failed to trend up. The balance of the session trended down, negating two no-bias environments, on the way down to 3221.00. The bias environment and final hour entry formed bearish PM Traction. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Ranging sideways since yesterday's close has included 2-3 dips under yesterday's 3221.00 low to 3210.00. Interim bounces have attacked or tested the 3235.00 earlier Globex high up to 3239.25. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) [NOTE: My previous coverage of Corn (C), Soybeans (S), and Live Cattle (LE) is updated at the Market Tour recording's end.] Last night's multiple probes under yesterday's low all stopped at the same spot without actually downtrending. This doesn't itself fulfill the bearish intent of yesterday's strong-handed sellers that produced two invalidated no-bias downtrends (untimely breaks under the bias-down signal). And yesterday afternoon's bearish PM Traction still suggests more downtrending will define this morning's bias environment. But a bullish Globex-flip may be forming. The setup rejects the overnight probe under yesterday's low by exiting the open above the 3235.00 earlier Globex high, and points higher through the morning. Forming the setup without triggering it -- i.e. exiting the open back under 3235.00 -- would be bearish, maintaining the 3208.00 near-term attraction, if not also lower to 3155.00-3165.00. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3241.00 would be likely to trigger the 3236.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3233.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 3225.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 3219.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3215.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

After having tested both bias-down parameters, which are now being retested. Market Tour's discussion of a bearish Globex-flip setup proved moot. The 3236.75 bias-up signal's resistance again reversed price back down. This time more substantially to probe overnight lows down to 3199.50. Pre-open comments located corrective bounce potential up to 3214.25-3217.75. The open tested it up to 3219.25 and quickly reversed to fresh lows at 3198.00. The opening 15 minutes SO FAR had trended down, forming discernible lower lows and lower highs.

Pretty bearish, right? Almost.

The opening 15 minutes was exited by surging back through the window's lower highs, up to 3212.00. This immediately robbed sellers of the their traction, which was exploited by rallying up to 3246.50.

Pretty bullish, right? Almost.

The 3236.75 bias-up signal didn't trigger, putting into play an offsetting test of its 3219.00 bias-down signal. Which was just tested down to 3212.50. Yesterday afternoon's bearish PM Traction should be influential until the bias environment finishes lapsing. Extending lower from there could be substantial. Otherwise, an afternoon bounce / short-squeeze becomes possible, almost likely.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3250.50 signal would target 3260.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3131.00 signal would target 3220.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3261.75 3250.50 ...would target 3271.50 3260.25 Bias-down: under 3242.25 3231.00 ...would target 3232.00 3220.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Capitalizing on a bias-up. The post-open 48-point rally up to 3246.50 peaked at the morning bias environment entry. Yesterday afternoon's bearish PM Traction influenced the bias environment back down to 3212.50. Narrower ranging started rallying, but not until the bias window had come within view of lapsing. Extending higher through the noon hour had held its 3260.25 bias-target too late to renew the bias-up signal. But it's still a bias-up environment, and not requiring it to extend hasn't prevented higher highs now testing 3268.00. Renewed bias-up targets eventually include 3277.00 and 3281.00. RSIs just simultaneously diverged negatively, that might depend heavily on extending higher without delay. Nothing about the pattern prevents another deep downdraft under 3250.50.

Flat-to-lower overnight ranging had rejected a bullish Globex-flip setup above 3235.00 in time to greet Thursday's open at fresh lows testing 3200.00.  The open's lower low at 3198.00 was recovered to probe briefly above the overnight high. But Wednesday afternoon's bearish PM Traction kept the morning under pressure. It barely lapsed before the recovery extended higher to the afternoon's 3268.00 high. Collapsing down to 3219.00 was reversed at the 3:37 Position-Squaring window -- back up to the pre-open Globex-flip's 3235.00 missed trigger. Contained in that description are relevant levels from intraday and overnight Wednesday. Probes under Wednesday's low were recovered, and probes above Wednesday night's highs were rejected. The last weak-handed effort was a bounce from Wednesday's low to attack its overnight high. Resuming the decline Friday is possible. But the effort probably won't allow more than one attempt. Friday Factors include the Opening Thrust setup, and holding an opening test of support can reverse price up through the afternoon. Meanwhile, Thursday's rally effort gained not traction, so a durable morning rally must gap up above a relevant high, which is essentially Thursday's much higher afternoon high. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3245.50 signal would target 3257.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3226.50 signal would target 3213.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3256.75 3245.50 ...would target 3268.50 3257.25 Bias-down: under 3237.75 3226.50 ...would target 3224.75 3213.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE