Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) The likely response to Monday's Gap-and-pause setup (previously called gap-and-go) was a pullback day, which Tuesday fulfilled. Not before probing Monday's 3350.50 high up to 3363.00 overnight, but then trending back down through the noon hour exit to 3316.50. Tuesday morning's slide was also influenced by the open's bearish Gap-and-go setup (still called gap-and-go) that would lapse with the bias environment exit. The afternoon bias environment's bounce up to 3339.50 was consolidated through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Last night's debate was greeted back at yesterday afternoon's 3339.50 high. Price powered higher to test 3358.00 until the debate ended. And then the stretched rubber band snapped, as price dropped sharply, eventually attacking 3291.00 at Friday's late high. Bouncing through Europe's opens tested yesterday's lows up to 3319.50, which is now being probed up to yesterday's 3325.00 cash session close. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Pullback done? Yesterday's pullback day was productive enough before extending lower overnight. And now it has extended overnight. Recovering to greet the open unchanged won't ensure rallying, let alone rallying without delay. Remember that rallying at all is to reward a weak-handed Gap-and-pause setup, which can be overcome by a stronger-handed bearish setup. Like another Globex-flip, which is reversing last night's probe above yesterday's intraday high back under the 3328.00 earlier Globex low. Gapping down under yesterday's lows would also qualify as a stronger-handed bearish setup, which is also being threatened right now. Avoiding an opening bearish setup would be credible for rallying to fresh highs for the week, however temporarily. There's still a lot of room for volatility -- not only following yesterday's 46-point wide session, but now also following the overnight 66-point wide range -- through the close with influence fro quarter-end portfolio window dressing. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3343.00 would be likely to trigger the 3341.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3331.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 3325.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 3320.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3317.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Bullish Gap-and-pause rewarded. The overnight drop from 3358.00 to 3291.00 was recovered into positive territory, above both Tuesday's 3325.00 cash session close and also its 3334.00 futures close. Surging from the 3332.00 open quickly tested the 3341.00 bias-up signal, and its consolidation resolved up. Sharply. The 3353.50 bias-up target was exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 3366.00 (now being met) and potentially 3370.50. Monday's intraday and overnight highs is are currently being probed up to 3367.25. Probing Monday's 3351.00 high rewards Monday's bullish Gap-and-pause setup and Tuesday's pullback day. Probing higher after the 10:15 bias signal already fulfills the minimum usual reward. Trending up throughout the bias window would fulfill the maximum usual reward. Back under 3355.00 would start to signal momentum reversing down. The bounce is free to reverse down at almost any time. Extending higher is still possible. But if the rally from Friday intends to reverse down sooner rather than later, than it is likely to reverse down from pretty much here, and pretty much now.

WED P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3379.25 signal would target 3391.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3361.50 signal would target 3347.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3389.50 3379.25 ...would target 3401.75 3391.50 Bias-down: under 3371.50 3361.50 ...would target 3357.00 3347.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Other influences. The bullish influence from Monday's gap-and-pause setup was at most likely to influence price action through this morning's bias environment. Fresh highs into 11:30 peaked at 3372.25. It reacted down to 3363.00. That influence has been replaced by optimistic word from Covid-stimulus negotiations fueling the market higher. Higher highs during the noon hour attacked this afternoon's 3379.25 bias-up signal, which reacted down to 3363.00. And now a higher high during the no-bias environment is probing the bias-up signal up to 3383.00. Which is no-bias trending, and required reacting down to the 3379.25 bias-up signal -- now fulfilled as the bias environment comes within view of lapsing. A reaction down must be even deeper to avoid qualifying as a breakout above the two-day range. The optimal window for reacting down was at the morning's bias environment exit. Reversing down now would likely be very aggressive, and very deep. Any later or shallower reversal down would be likelier to extend higher Thursday.

Tuesday's pullback day that had been dictated by Monday's Gap-and-pause setup had extended down sharply overnight to attack 3291.00. But Wednesday's 3332.00 open had recovered positive territory. The influence of Monday's bullish setup persisted until the morning's bias environment exit. The afternoon eventually probed sharply higher anyway, getting to 3384.00 before Covid-stimulus headlines triggered a collapse down to 3329.00. The 3347.00 cash session close back under Monday's highs prevented a breakout -- futures extended down to 3334.00. The headline reaction's late timing usually scares away counter-trend sponsorship because of its proximity to the close. Wednesday offered another example as the initial 27-point drop doubled. Quarter-end portfolio window dressing was expected to create last-minute volatility. That influence both explains and dismisses the last half-hour's 35-point bounce and its 30-point collapse through the futures close. A breakout would have suggested the Fri-Mon rally was extending higher, regardless of its weak-handed sponsorship. The rally may yet extend anyway. But the door meanwhile remains open to beginning the rally's retracement, if not also its reversal back to June's complex Ascending Triangle. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3360.25 signal would 3374.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3333.00 signal would target 3320.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3370.50 3360.25 ...would target 3384.25 3374.00 Bias-down: under 3343.00 3333.00 ...would target 3330.75 3320.75 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE