Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Sunday night's gap up had momentarily touched 2980.25 before ranging sideways around 2975.00. A pre-open dip to 2965.00 stretched the rubber band to snap back up into the open. The morning bias environment consolidated again around 2975.00, then broke higher to 2985.00 during the afternoon bias environment. All of which developed within Friday's range, difficult to break due to reduced participation from Rosh Hashanah. But a pullback held 2975.00 and reacted up 11 points to probe earlier highs through the futures close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Monday's late surge was initially corrected down to 2982.25, but eventually rallied 10 points to test 2992.00. The rally tried to resume into Europe's opens, but a blip-up to 2994.50 reacted back down as sharply. And the reversal has now extended down to 2893.00, testing this morning's 2894.25 bias-up signal as support. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Gapping up to and or through yesterday's 2985.00 high would confirm that yesterday's rally wasn't sponsored by weak hands. That's the question about yesterday's inside day sponsorship, which would normally imply that its intraday trending is counter-trend. But lower participation Monday was only a function only of the Jewish New Year observance, which immediately recovering Monday's highs through the open would help to confirm. The result would that a recovery is likely underway, still needing its own confirmation -- like also soon recovering last night's highs. Meanwhile, a bearish setup called Globex-flip is threatening to trigger, rejecting the probe above yesterday's highs by exiting the open back under the 2982.25 earlier Globex low. Rejecting a retest of 2982.25 through the open would instead be as bullish as the setup would have been bearish. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2982.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2984.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2988.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Try saying that three times fast. Last night's probe up to 2994.50 above yesterday's 2985.00 high was almost reversed back under the 2982.25 earlier Globex low. That would have been bearish if maintained through the open. That would have been bullish if the attempt were rejected. But the earlier Globex low was never touched, let alone probed, so it was never actually rejected. Bouncing anyway attacked the overnight high to within 2 ticks at 2994.00. Overlapping the 2991.50 bias-up target into the top of the hour could have resumed the rally, but a 10:00 econ report triggered a reversal. A big reversal. Plunging through the 2984.25 bias-up signal soon extended down to probe the 2967.00 bias-down target to 2963.50. Its reaction up peaked at the 2973.00 bias-down signal and has resolved down to test 2958.00 -- 36 points under the open's high. Back above 2966.75 would start to signal the drop was ending, if not also starting to reverse back up. Its knee-jerk origin nonetheless triggered bias-down, but the original context still suggests that even the most bearish resolution can at least bounce significantly first. Meanwhile, the next lower attractions are 2954.50 and 2949.00. Oversold RSIs at Friday's 2946.50 low are outstanding, but there's no bullish reason at this stage to neutralize that attraction.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2966.25 2966.75 ...would target 2972.75 2973.25 Bias-down: under 2953.00 2953.50 ...would target 2946.00 2946.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Almost too late in the day -- and the range -- for a recovery. 55 points under the 2994.00 post-open high. That's the 2939.25 low of this afternoon's renewed bias-down environment.

Maintaining the decline's momentum through yet another timing window is unlikely. Every timing window has trended down aggressively, reflecting a common sponsorship, which is usually precluded from defining an entire session.

Ranging sideways through the close is unlikely. When early steep trending enters a sideways range through the close, the morning's extreme usually has held. Perhaps the noon hour's extreme. This afternoon's low has already broken under both.

That leaves either reversing up, or extending down more aggressively.

Reversing up would be a reaction to August's "lower prior highs" now being tested as support. Closing above 2951.00 would avoid putting into play the next lower objective at 2916.00. Never dismiss the potential for a bull market to pull itself from the brink at the last possible moment. Is this the brink? Is this a bull market?

Extending down more aggressively, i.e. capitulation, would be attracted to 2916.00, which is actually a more substantive brink for a bull market to rescue itself. Closing above 2951.00 may only delay putting into play 2916.00, while a bull market might be more included to neutralize the attraction as painfully as possible.

All of this is developing not just in reaction to this morning's ISM data, but ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report, and the quarterly earnings onslaught. Also immediately following quarter-end portfolio window dressing. Simply recovering 2951.00 today might be the least convincing bottom, so the balance of the session will be a struggle between momentum and refueling.

Monday's inside day was extended overnight to 2994.50, and held up post-open Tuesday, to probe Friday's 2989.50 high. Any higher any later would have confirmed the trend was reversing up. But a negative reaction to news trended down throughout the day to a very last-minute touch of 2937.00. 57 points under the open's high, the last 13 points being under 2951.00 which had recovered from being probed Friday. Retesting its oversold RSIs could have been more easily absorbed from lower earlier, like Monday morning. But waiting so long and from so high would be difficult to recover through the close. And closing under 2951.00 has now put into play 2916.00. A corrective bounce could test 2967.00-2973.00 while remaining vulnerable to resuming and extending the decline. Not that a corrective bounce is likely as yet another bounce has fallen back down to fresh lows. Wednesday's econ calendar includes the high-profile influential items of ADP and two Fed speakers, so there won't be any shortage of catalysts. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2948.50 2949.00 ...would target 2957.00 2957.50 Bias-down: under 2933.00 2933.50 ...would target 2927.00 2927.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.