Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Finally dipping overnight under Monday afternoon's 3035.00 low down to 3029.50 was one aspect that fulfilled the timing for a pullback Tuesday. The timing didn't prevent a morning surge through Monday's 3042.75 high up to 3046.25. But he balance of the session did probe back under Monday afternoon's low, twice, to as low as 3033.00. Potential pullback objectives were not met. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Narrow ranging hasn't even touched either bias signal. Firming into the Globex open quickly peaked at 3037.50 before reversing back down through the intraday lows by 1 point to 3032.00. The range narrowed from there, as if that was possible. Blipping-up at Europe's opens touched 3036.00, and its reaction back down into the range has now recovered to attack the earlier 3037.50 high. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) So, Tuesday was part pullback, part new high, and then more pullback. But it wasn't a rally, which wasn't likely anyway since Monday morning's excessive optimism had borrowed too much from the next timing windows. Tuesday's rally attempt prevented refueling the rally, which still has room down to 3027.75, 3022.50, and 3013.00-3014.00. But Tuesday's rally attempt also reflects the ongoing optimism ahead of this afternoon's FOMC events. A deeper pullback won't be entirely credible if not preceded by probing fresh highs. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3033.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3031.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3027.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

With a significant detour on the way there. Bouncing from the 3032.00 overnight lows got to 3039.00. Greeting the open at 3038.00 immediately collapsed through Tuesday's 3036.00 close on the way to probing under overnight lows and attacking 3030.00. Consolidating around the 3031.50 bias-down signal might have held on its own. We'll never know. Its reaction was derailed by a trade headline that triggered a plunge to 3023.25. The 3025.25 bias-down target was pierced momentarily. The plunge was retraced entirely, immediately, in time to invoke the grace period.

We'll never know whether the open's collapse would have held its test of the bias-down signal through 10:15. Still overlapping it at 10:30 has triggered noN-bias. Not no-bias, and its offsetting test of the bias-up signal. Not bias-down, and its retest of the bias-down target. But noN-bias, which could do either, or neither.

Back under 3030.00 (being tested now) would suggest the latter, at least a retest of the 3025.25 bias-down signal. Back above 3033.25 (also being tested now) would start to signal a bigger bounce back into the overnight range. Trending beyond either is unlikely before this afternoon's FOMC events.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3039.75 3037.50 ...would target 3045.25 3043.00 Bias-down: under 3027.25 3025.25 ...would target 3020.00 3018.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Awaiting the headlines. This afternoon's FOMC events offer the most opportunistic trading environment. Often, that's plural, offering a volatility in reaction to the 2:00 policy statement, and at 2:30 while the Fed chair holds his Q&A. The events are being greeted by a market that is paralyzed from anxiousness. Except for the brief side trip down to 3023.25, sideways ranging ranging between 3030.00-3034.50 has persisted for 4 hours. Except for the morning's false break lower, no price action is being predictive of the resolution. I'll make signals apparent in the chaRTroom when available.

The rally has reached a fork in the road, not simply for the price being tested but for the path taken to arrive here. Several consecutive optimistic sessions with intermittent shallow pullbacks, neutralizing most upside attractions without putting into play higher objectives. Here's how the market arrived at this juncture, and the two paths out of here...

Overnight ranging into Wednesday's open plunged from 3039.00 back down through the 3032.00 overnight low to 3023.25. A 3029.00-3035.00 range that awaited the afternoon's FOMC events also plunged, stopping optimistically short of the earlier low within 2 points. The balance of the session rallied, eventually retesting overbought RSIs at Tuesday's 3046.25 high up to 3049.00. Monday's gap-and-go rally has now been rewarded for hovering and then absorbing a pullback.

Wednesday's new high close was still overlapping the two prior sessions' highs. Being an Outside Day, closing within the current range is only a missed opportunity to launch a new upleg. This stage of the rally is not very tolerant of missed opportunities. Meanwhile, Monday's gap up above all prior highs has now been retested from below, thanks to Wednesday's dips back into last Friday's range. Newly overbought RSIs at 3049.00 now want to be retested, with room for noise up to 3050.50. Two consecutive higher closes are needed to signal the rally is extending. Conversely, retesting 3049.00 -- whether intraday or overnight, and preferably also visiting 3050.50 -- and closing back under the recent range's 3033.00 lower-end would launch a new downleg. The downside risk probably needs to develop Thursday if it is going to develop at all. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3052.75 3050.50 ...would target 3059.75 3057.50 Bias-down: under 3041.50 3039.50 ...would target 3035.75 3033.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.