Stock Market Trade Signals - 10-31-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Friday's session had recovered from probing fresh lows overnight down to 2116.00. Potential to 2137.50 was attacked to within 5 ticks when the FBI headline triggered a 23-point plunge to fresh lows at 2112.50. Bouncing choppily into the last half-hour attacked 2128.00, retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the plunge. No "unfinished business" was left outstanding but it was the fourth consecutive lower close and lower intraday lows. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open blipped-down to 2114.75 and bounced quickly into a 2119.00-2122.00 range. An eventual breakout rallied up to 2130.50, 7-8 points back into positive territory. Its retracement has been attacking 2124.00. If, then... The origin of Friday afternoon's plunge was a little premature. But not by much and not at all unexpected -- the overnight low's retracement was likely. The plunge's 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement also tested "higher prior lows" before the close, fulfilling a correction. Bouncing overnight doesn't preclude launching a new downleg, not this shallow of a bounce, not without also gapping up above Friday afternoon's highs (currently 11 points higher). Four consecutive lower closes all but require at least an intraday fresh low before any recovery would be credible. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open under 2127.75 at 9:45 would be unlikely to trigger the 2131.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2121.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2117.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2116.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

lede . The pre-open 5-point bounce up to 2129.00 was retraced almost entirely to open at 2125.25. Flat-to-lower since then has attacked 2121.25, whose test early enough could have been predictive. It's still support, which is why attacking it just reacted up to 2125.25. But its test was too late to reveal whether sellers are weak-handed, or gaining sponsorship. This are is also unchanged. Unchanged, compared to both Friday's cash session and futures closes. So, it is natural support, and it's not being challenged with any momentum that might better enable breaking through it or snapping back from it. That suggests a "dry cleaners morning," which is either unlikely to trend or will fluctuate unpredictably. The likely resolution is down, but a bounce is possible while awaiting sponsorship's arrival. There is meanwhile room to fluctuate between the 2117.50 and 2131.00 bias signals, both of which were tested or attacked overnight.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2134.75 2128.75 ...would target  2140.00  2134.25 Bias-down: under  2127.00  2121.25 ...would target 2121.25  2115.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Dry cleaners morning seems to contagious. This morning's bias environment suddenly plunged from 2125.25 and tested 2120.00 several minutes later. That ended quickly, as the balance of the window firmed back up to 2125.25. Then an interesting thing happened: The bias environment began lapsing by surging to fresh post-open highs. That ended quickly, too, retesting the morning's "lower prior highs."

Interesting. Productive sponsorship between timing windows is rarely overwhelmed. So, surging to fresh highs as the bias environment began lapsing should have extended. But it did not. Even knowing the likely resolution is down, and that fresh lows must precede any credible rally -- something interesting was attempted.

I'll have to dismiss it for now. Its inflection point was validated by immediately extending at least 5 ticks. But its 3-minute high never improved. And now another timing window's entry has signaled a reversal down. So, the noon hour's probe down to 2123.50 is being retested by 1 point as the afternoon's bias environment begins. It's triggering "no-bias" without either bias signal having been tested. Trending out of the bias environment lapsing would be credible again. That late would be difficult for a rally today to reverse back down today, but no rally should be durable without first probing under Friday's lows.

Hay, made it through the entire day without a single spooky Halloween reference! Oh, wait. Darn... Still hovering at the morning's low without rejecting it suggests at least an obligatory break lower is coming. Having hovered there for so long without yet breaking, more than just an obligatory break may require a shallow bounce, first. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2131.25 2125.50 ...would target  2137.50  2131.75 Bias-down: under  2123.50  2117.75 ...would target  2117.00  2111.25 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.