Stock Market Trade Signals - 11-09-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... The reaction to Fridays' pre-open payrolls report had plunged 12-17 points down to 2082.00. Recovering most of it through the open nevertheless reacted down to fresh lows at 2077.50. The balance of the session ranged choppily higher to attack 2094.00, repeatedly overlapping the critical 2088.00 level, while still within Thursday's range. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's flat open soon probed fresh highs at 2098.00. That was brief, and retraced entirely, then reversed into negative territory at 2087.00. That's essentially this morning's bias-down signal, and several hours have ranged there sideways, touching 2086.00. If, then... Not rejecting Friday's probes under 2088.00 kept the market vulnerable to probing even deeper, like to the 2070.00 area. Gapping up could serve by proxy as the rejection that Friday failed to produce. But the overnight slide is more in-line with the rally still needing to launch from a lower level. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2091.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2087.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2085.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Doubly renewed bias-down. The overnight slide had greeted the open at the morning's 2087.25 bias-down signal. Post-open action blipped-down 4 points momentarily, but its reaction up to 2088.00 was retraced even more aggressively. And much more substantially.

The 10:15 bias timing window renewed the bias-down signal by exceeding the 2082.25 bias-down target. The first hour has extended down to the 2072.50 minimum lower objective.

Objectively, by probing under Friday's low, the market has fulfilled the minimum consequence to Friday's failure to reverse up from probing under 2088.00. Structurally, by testing the 2072.50 "throat" of a recent "V" bottom, the market has tested a relevant support. Calculably, potential for testing the 2070.00 area now relies on maintaining the downward momentum. And that's being threatened -- at least 1-minute RSI just diverged positively at 2071.75, before reacting up to 2075.50. I'm not looking for a durable bounce this morning, and probably won't chase a buy signal without the market forming a bottoming pattern. Potential to extend down remains intact, but no longer required.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2076.00 2070.50 ...would target  2081.25  2075.75 Bias-down: under  2066.00  2060.50 ...would target 2061.00  2055.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning's slide hasn't resumed. The decline's potential to 2064.50 was fulfilled down to 2062.00. Bouncing there through the noon hour touched this afternoon's 2070.50 bias-up signal. The signal's touch pushed back. Dipping back down to 2064.50 has avoided triggering bias-up signal. The 2060.50 bias-down signal isn't triggering, and its offsetting test isn't required during the afternoon. But the level is relevant support. And exiting the bias environment under it would be likely to trend down for awhile. An afternoon recovery would be difficult if the bias environment isn't already chipping away at the resistance of its 2070.50 bias-up signal.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Narrow ranging Monday up to 1.0785 resistance didn't duplicate Friday's initial decline, but neither did it confirm its break as requiring any lower objective to be in-play. Extending the bounce has room up to 1.0865 before suggesting momentum may be reversing up. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Monday's narrow ranging didn't yet extend the decline, which is next targeting a test of 1082.00. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Trending down into Monday's open extended lower intraday to test two-month old prior lows at 14.45. Closing back above 14.70 would trigger a corrective bounce that might begin forming a bottom, but the downtrend isn't otherwise likely to reverse up very soon. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) A fresh low overnight at 152-10 did not extend intraday, but neither was it recovered as the session ranged narrowly at a several-tick defecit. Interestingly, this was while stocks fell, a relationship that suggests the low isn't in. Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) The drop extended further toward its objective of retesting prior lows. Testing 43.65 intraday Monday now requires that bounces hold any test of 44.95 to maintain the decline's momentum. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Two consecutive sessions of probing above 2.31 without extending above 2.37 led to Monday's dip back under 2.31. Momentum did not reverse down, so another early surge through 2.31 would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Monday's least likely scenario was a last-hour rally. But entering the final hour at 2068.00 support only attacked 2065.00. That reacted up sharply into the position-squaring window, and through it, probing fresh afternoon highs at 2077.50. The afternoon's pattern had formed an Ascending Triangle up to 2072.00 capable of launching the final hour's rally. But it broke lower instead, under 2068.00 down to 2065.00. That did not qualify as fulfilling the break, so rallying already was premature -- this construct is what I'm referring to as an unstable base. The final hour's rally can resume Tuesday, if it extends higher overnight. The bias environment exit and final hour's entry didn't gain traction, so new sponsorship forcing a gap up is the only way to avoid probing under Monday's 2062.00 low. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpkhyv

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at: non-xp ilinc

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2086.00 2080.50 ...would target  2093.00  2087.50 Bias-down: under  2073.50  2068.00 ...would target 2068.25 2062.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.