Stock Market Trade Signals - 11-11-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday's wide-ranging choppy morning had remained range bound, narrowing between 2065.00-2075.00. Firming into the final hour hovered above the morning's high, but didn't improve above 2079.00. The morning's 2062.75 bias-down target was left outstanding below. Overnight action's new info... Perhaps it's a slow news day due to the holiday. But price has only ratcheted higher in stages. One leg up consolidated off of testing 2080.50, and another timed to Europe's opens peaked at 2084.50. Its reaction down tested 2080.50 as support, before surging to fresh highs that blipped-up momentarily to touch 2087.00. If, then... 2080.50 is this morning's bias-up signal, and 2086.00 is its target. Both have been tested overnight. Impressive, but less relevant than their post-open disposition -- especially after singularly-minded overnight trending. Recovering both to renew the bias-up could marginalize sellers for the day, as counter-trend sponsorship is inhibited by holiday-depressed volume. But while countering a trend is difficult, so is getting it started. Holding one or both bias-up parameter's test could put into play a lower objective. And that same counter-trend inhibition could facilitate the influence of lower attractions. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2083.50 would be unlikely to exceed 2086.00 bias-up target at 10:15 whose recovery would have renewed the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2088.75 would be likely to renew the bias-up. Exiting the open under 2076.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2080.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Sliding sharply into and out of the open. The overnight rally's risk was that it had priced out buyers, while becoming attractive to sellers, which would point down. Actually, a greater risk was to retest the 2086.00 bias-up target post-open before reversing down. But the reversal down greeted the market under 2082.00. Extending through the 2080.50 bias-up signal failed to trigger it. An offsetting test of the 2071.25 bias-down signal is in-play. The bias-up target was not tested post-open, so an offsetting test of the 2065.50 bias-down target isn't in-play. Not officially. Nor is yesterday morning's 2062.75 outstanding bias-down target. But their tests are likely until signaled otherwise.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2084.75 2079.25 ...would target  2090.00  2084.50 Bias-down: under  2078.50  2073.00 ...would target 2072.75  2067.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Noon hour's bounce reverses. Again. The morning's drop fulfilled its 2071.25 objective -- testing the bias-down signal to offset that the 2080.50 bias-up signal had held its test as resistance. An inverted Head & Shoulders formed there. The pattern proved very powerful, launching a rally to 2082.50. But, wait, there's more... The afternoon's 2079.25 bias-up signal held its test  to trigger no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2073.00 bias-down signal. And that has been touched. This is still Veteran's Day, but the market won't care after the no-bias environment starts lapsing. That's when price action starts discounting the next session. And this wide range -- perhaps also including yesterday morning's unresolved wide range -- would be vulnerable to breaking either way.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Wednesday's holiday trading was almost imperceptibly flat-to-higher, still neither confirming the decline's momentum remains intact, nor rejecting it. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Very narrow ranging Wednesday maintained the attraction below to 1182.00 and eventually 1174.50. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Firming overnight was retraced and rejected to probe fresh lows Wednesday. A weak open Thursday that were to recover firmly into positive territory at this stage of the pattern would be credible for extending higher intraday. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Flat-to-lower ranging kept alive the decline's momentum targeting fresh lows, ahead of what is likely to be headline-rich session -- Thursday is littered with Fed speakers, and includes the monthly 30-year auction. Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) The outstanding 43.00 target was met Wednesday and ranged around. Probing it next down to 41.00 is possible so long as bounces were to hold any test of 43.45. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Dipping back under 2.31 overnight still tried recovering into Wednesday's close, but failed, as the balance of the session drifted lower. The setup remains intact for a same-session recovery of both 2.31 and 2.37 to launch a new rally leg.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2079.25 2073.75 ...would target  2084.25  2079.00 Bias-down: under 2073.25  2068.00 ...would target 2068.25  2062.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The afternoon's slide consolidated down to the 2070.00 area for Wednesday's final hour. That is, until the final minutes. Then it finally resumed the decline into and out of the close down to 2068.00. Its timing wasn't optimal to signal hold-short, but lower lows remain likely, down to 2062.75 if not also through it. The break's timing also wasn't early enough for an optimal "session-long rally" setup -- this would reject the last downleg by gapping up Thursday above Wednesday afternoon's ~2078.00 high. But both setups are credible. The most bullish scenario is neither of the above. Extending down overnight to probe Monday's 2062.00 low early, and then reject it through the bias environment, would still be the most impressive bottom. Not holding the bottom would be bearish. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpkyzw

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at: non-xp ilinc