Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Market Tour HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Rallying 22 points overnight up to 3717.50 had peaked at Europe's opens. Its eventual reaction into and out of Thursday's open was relatively shallow. Wednesday's high was barely pierced while testing the gap-to-gap retracement at 3702.00 at noon. Another reversal of another gap up. But shallow dips continually recovered to the 3711.50 open instead of extending lower, and rallying through the afternoon recovered 3714.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) That was a fun ride. Trending back down through midnight probed yesterday's lows by 3 points to attack 3699.00. Already reversing up got a boost at Europe's opens, surging back up to yesterday's 3717.00 highs. A spike up to 3723.00 was quickly retraced without forming any complexity, and price continues hovering under 3717.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Several setups are operating as the week's last session approaches. Even if only momentary, fresh highs overnight have once again proved the contrarian bullishness of recent restrained optimism. Another stage I've been describing was to recover from an overnight dip. Well, last night's dip was even more so, probing under yesterday's lows, which makes its overnight recovery even more so, too. The overall range isn't so substantial that the recovery may have rewarded its sponsorship already. Meanwhile, recovering the 3714.75 earlier Globex high can form bullish Globex-flip and Isolation setups. Today being influenced by Friday Factors, expiration no less, quad-witch no less, trending through the first 15 minutes can be very predictive for the day. Somehow not gapping up or quickly extending higher would be problematic, not only to rallying but to avoiding a repeat of last night's dip -- while still awaiting an overt recognition of the cumulative bullishness, so far the only repeating pattern has been the intraday ineffectual pessimism, which may yet repeat again if buyers aren't in control through the open. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Gap up reversed, for now. The ongoing pattern of reversing gaps up kept us keenly aware of its potential for repeating this morning. And for preventing two potentially bullish setups from triggering, making their influence as bearish as they would have been bullish. Globex-flip failed by not maintaining its probe above the 3714.75 earlier Globex high through the first 15 minutes. The Isolation setup failed by not spending all of the first 15 minutes above yesterday's 3713.50 cash session close. Now fresh lows are testing 3692.00. Trending up through the first 15 minutes and/or exiting the first 15 above overnight highs would have signaled expiration's likely intraday direction. Failing to exploit the proximity to fulfilling either setup keeps the door open to intraday volatility. Price action hovered at or under the 3696.00 bias-down target through the bottom of the hour, instead of recovering its 3705.00 bias-down signal to reject both. Only the wild card of this being expiration would add credibility to recovering prematurely. Meanwhile, that ongoing pattern to recover from reversed gaps up keeps the the door open to recovering, prematurely or later. Whatever today's resolution, Friday Factors of the impending weekend illiquidity can exacerbate a move in either direction, or both.

FRI P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3700.50 signal would target 3711.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3684.25 signal would target 3674.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3709.75 3700.50 ...would target 3720.25 3711.00 Bias-down: under 3693.75 3684.25 ...would target 3686.00 3677.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Haven't (yet) recovered this one. Failing to trigger the open's potentially bullish setups had made them as bearish as they would have been bullish. Now their influence has lapsed. Along with the Friday Factor that tends to make the morning bias signal persist through the noon hour. Reversing down from 3721.00 got to 3683.00. Now The 3700.50 afternoon bias-up signal has held its test to trigger no-bias. No offsetting test is in-play, and the 3684.25-3700.50 bias signals should define the window's range if touched. Expiration, or not, Friday afternoon has one more potential setup. Exiting the bias environment beyond the 3691.00-3702.50 range can form the Friday PM Float and extend into the close. The setup is more reliable when it develops in the intraday trend's direction, which is down. Recovering the reversed gap up, which has been the pattern, would be credible. But not reliable, not with the expiration wild card. And meanwhile, Friday Factors may still exacerbate a move in either direction.

The rally had everything in its favor going into Friday, having reversed an overnight probe under Thursday's lows down to 3699.00 to probe new highs up to 3723.00. But the ongoing pattern of failed gaps up repeated its influence, exacerbated by Friday Factors. Sliding to the afternoon's 3677.00 low was interrupted by a bounce to 3702.50. The later low was followed by a surge back up to 3712.00, as expectations for a weekend stimulus agreement were exacerbated by quad witch expiration. The late surge retraced Thursday's 3712.00 futures close, just 6 ticks short of its cash session close. I'm qualifying that as another recovered gap up reversal. Added to the overnight dip's recovery, that's two conditioning lessons in the same day. Extending a gap up can't be much further away. Two potentially bullish setups had formed at Friday's open, the Globex-flip and Isolation. Failing to trigger at 9:45 made their influence as bearish as they would have been bullish. Which they were. But we shouldn't ignore the sponsorship that formed the setups, which might return soon. We'll discuss that potential, and others including the WedEX setup, at this weekend's Saturday Review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS YEAR'S LAST SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3714.50 signal would target 3724.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3698.50 signal would target 3689.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3723.50 3714.50 ...would target 3733.25 3724.25 Bias-down: under 3707.25 3698.25 ...would target 3698.00 3689.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE