Stock Market Trade Signals - 12-20-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Monday's overnight rally to 2261.00 had been largely retraced before the open, and then fully retraced to Friday's 2254.00 cash session close right after the open. That's a lot of selling pressure to expend without yet even turning negative. In fact, it was all available selling pressure. Bullish WedEX's influence exploited the vacuum and launched a surge back to the overnight high. Then another surge probed higher to attack 2264.00. A pullback into noon was largely recovered throughout the afternoon bias environment. The recovery seemed poised and even intent to resume the morning's rally, when headlines triggered a complete retracement back to the morning's low. Overnight action's new info... Already bouncing through 2259.00-2260.00 through the cash session and futures close, Globex immediately firmed further to 2262.00. A narrow 2-point range broke higher at Europe's opens, soon blipping-up to attack 2265.00. Its reaction down to 2262.00 has recovered to now probe higher up to 2265.50. If, then... The rally's excuse for delay Friday afternoon was the president's press conference stealing focus. Its excuse Monday afternoon was headlines of terrorist actions around the globe. The validity of either of these conditions is irrelevant, so long as this is true -- Much has been thrown at this market since last Tuesday's 2273.00 high, and yet it is repeatedly attacked to 5-9 points. This price proximity alone is enough to be confident in the high's retest. That's only helped by Tuesday's proximity to the weekend holiday's seasonal bullishness. Not already rallying at Tuesday's open would have been vulnerable to at least attempting a deep corrective dip. But the open is indicated to at least test yesterday's highs, if not also surge higher. A post-open reaction down may be the only path lower before next week. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2264.00 would be likely to trigger the 2262.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2259.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Gap up extends. Reacting down pre-open from testing the 2267,25 bias-up target greeted the open with a blip-down to 2264.00. Its reaction was quick, and quickly extended up to 2269.50. That's the highest level since last Wednesday afternoon's initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to the FOMC statement. It didn't last this morning, either. The reaction down to 2265.75 only overlapped the 2267.25 bias-up target at 10:!5, instead of exceeding it to renew the bias-up signal. It's still a bias-up environment, with room back down to the 2262.00 bias-up signal just as noise. Back under 2265.00 (being tested now) would suggest a dip to 2262.00 is underway. Having dipped to 2265.00, back above 2267.25 would start to signal the rally is extending. It's too late to renew the bias-up signal, but extending higher anyway would target a retest of last Tuesday's 2273.00 high. And the longer that takes, the less time available for a reversal to begin by Wednesday afternoon, when strong hands will already be positioned for the weekend holiday.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2272.00 2268.50 ...would target  2277.00 2273.50 Bias-down: under 2266.50 2263.00 ...would target 2259.75  2256.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Hovering at fresh relative highs. The overnight rally began with Europe's opens triggering a break above 2262.00. It ended with the open's surge up to 2269.50. That was the open. the balance of the morning worked its way back down to 2263.50. Firming through the noon hour is retesting what had been this morning's 2267.25 bias-up signal. Its resistance was obviously influential then, and it/s clearly influential now. Its test is also not reversing down. RSIs are stuck and not reflecting any sponsorship. This hesitation isn't so close to the 2273.00 high to be labeled "pessimism," but it is bordering on being "complacency." Still not rallying out of the bias environment would try attracting strong buyers below at 2260.50-2262.00.

Tuesday left "unfinished business below" from oversold RSIs at 2262.25 coming out of the afternoon bias environment. The dip at that time was seeking strong-handed buyers to sponsor resuming the rally -- they weren't attracted by gapping up and extending higher to 2269.50, so a pullback was attracted down to 2262.00. The dip stopped optimistically short before bouncing to 2267.50 into the close, too late to be strong-handed sponsorship, and too little to prevent a deeper overnight dip. The afternoon bias environment had already peaked there, so only returning to it did not reflect strong-handed buyers. Gapping up Wednesday above Tuesday's 2269.50 high could prevent a deeper dip, and already be back on-track to probing the new highs above 2273.00. Otherwise, breaking under Tuesday's 2262.25 low would have only a brief opportunity to snap back up, or else start seeking buyers below 2260.50. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2272.00 2268.50 ...would target  2277.25  2273.75 Bias-down: under  2265.50  2262.00 ...would target 2260.00  2256.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.