Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) the UP/DOWN-CRASH setup's 10th-11th day had begun surging Thursday afternoon at 3233.25 to -3254.00 its overnight, and then collapsed at Friday's open back to 3238.00. Instead of the setup usually fizzling out, a final bout between opposing sponsorship seemed to be developing. Correcting the post-open collapse up to 3247.50 had begun resolving down, accelerating through the final hour's own collapse to fresh lows at 3235.50. The session ended at Thursday's 3237.50 "lower prior highs." Friday's close may have been the DOWN-CRASH snapping back down, which would make Thursday's surge the final rubber band stretch, and not the UP-CRASH exploding higher. Regardless, a "new Globex trend extreme" was left outstanding. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) A smaller-scale version of Thursday's surges and Friday's collapses has developed overnight. Sunday night's rally got up to 3244.25 by midnight, which Europe's opens recovered from an interim 3-point dip. All of which was then retraced back down to 3236.50. Its reaction is now within 1 point of retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back to overnight highs. Its resistance is reinforced by also being Friday's 3241.50 cash session close. Not yet either resuming Friday's collapses or rejecting them, it's still possible for the UP/DOWN-CRASH to fizzle out. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Friday's three bearish factors are awaiting their reward: rejecting a probe of positive territory, finishing at intraday lows, and twice testing the upper-end of Thursday's range as support which is usually one time too many to hold. Retesting its "lower prior highs" at Monday's open will have a brief window to react up again, like Sunday night's open, and at least detour from breaking lower. Testing Thursday afternoon's 3233.00 last relative lows could be the last line of defense against melting down. Meanwhile, the earlier threat of gapping up above Friday afternoon's highs into a "session-long rally" now seems very unlikely, which makes extending down eventually likely. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3243.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3245.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3237.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3232.00 bias-down signal.

DOWN-CRASH resumed at the open. The 3-hour pre-open bounce had extended up to 3243.50 had softened back to 3241.50 at the open. Prior highs were holding, so no early buy signal could be calculated. But an early sell signal under 3239.75 was identified as being immediately credible whenever triggered. And it was triggered almost immediately. The open's noise touched the 3243.00 preliminary bias signal, but only collapsed. Almost 3 minutes later, the 3-hour pre-open bounce had been retraced entirely. The 10:15 bias timing window was entered at 3217.25, 26 points in 45 minutes. 3217.25 has since held for another consolidation. Although improving, 3-minute RSI remains persistently oversold. A corrective bounce could test 3226.50 and still be very likely to resolve down. Back under 3218.00 would signal the decline has resumed already. Under 3214.50 through a relevant window would confirm.

The post-open collapse picks up the narrative where it was left at Friday's close. Multiple separate bearish factors were each likely to be rewarded in any environment, while a DOWN-CRASH was potentially unfolding. The bearish factors are now rewarded, so extending down would likely be a product of the DOWN-CRASH, confirming itself.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3229.50 3230.50 ...would target 3235.75 3236.75 Bias-down: under 3221.00 3222.00 ...would target 3213.50 3214.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Post-open collapse now corrected. The 10:15 bias timing window continues to define the collapse's 3217.25 low, and also for the session. Its corrective bounce targeting 3226.50 defined the morning bias environment's recovery high. Trending back up relentlessly through the noon hour got to 3232.00. 3232.00 retraces 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back up to the 3241.50 open, a common measurement for temporary corrections. The correction's room for noise extends up to 3238.00, but doesn't require being tested. The bounce barely attacked the 3233.00 lower-end of Thursday afternoon's range. Resuming the rally requires not only probing it, but also recovering the 3238.00 upper-end of Thursday afternoon's range, which now coincides with the corrective bounce's room for noise. Currently, the noon hour's exit is 10 points lower, testing a sell signal at 3227.25. Entering and exiting the weekend with collapses suggests the DOWN-CRASH template is developing. Resuming the decline remains likely. Without closing back above 3238.00, no bullish scenario is in-play.

It turns out that Sunday night's choppy ranging and its late bounce up to 3243.50 were only marking time. The delay ended suddenly when Monday's open immediately began collapsing 27 points down to 3217.25. Where Friday's collapses had held tests of Thursday afternoon's 3238.00 upper-end, Monday's collapse probed under the prior Friday's 3219.25 low. Retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the collapse up to 3232.00 resolved back down to the morning's low. Not quite all the way, or durably, but close enough not to be noise. Accelerating the decline at Monday's close would have confirmed the DOWN-CRASH continues to develop. Absent that bearish feature, Monday's late action is relevant for still overlapping the prior Friday's lows. Price action through the close was in-line with a decline being underway, despite the open already having fulfilled Friday's bearish sponsorship. So, if Tuesday doesn't produce another accelerated intraday collapse, then the DOWN-CRASH setup would be undermined. But an ongoing decline remains likely unless Tuesday's open were to gap up sufficiently. Meanwhile, 2019's last trading day is full of wild cards, from portfolio window dressing and tax maneuvers, to market-to-market and Wednesday's illiquidity. Whether or not triggered, intraday vulnerability to steep, brief moves is high. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3227.50 3228.50 ...would target 3233.75 3234.75 Bias-down: under 3216.75 3217.75 ...would target 3210.00 3211.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.