Just a quick heads-up about an indicator that warns equities markets may be approaching a correction. The "cover story jinx" signal just triggered today. A quick heads-up is about all the warning this indicator deserves. But that's still more than a coin-flip deserves -- even best two out of three. The new Barron's issue is available today, and its cover story promotes the potential for "Dow 30,000." That's not actually very sensational, being only another 652 points higher than Friday's 29,348 close. For perspective, the Dow just rallied that much in the past 8 sessions. And 3 times that in the past 6-1/2 weeks. Just another 652 points? Don't accuse Barron's of being the financial industry's National Enquirer. The real story is the legendary "cover story jinx." The jinx is a contrarian indicator, meaning it reflects a sentiment that is already so well developed that it is about to peak. So, today it means Barron's editors believe their readership's biggest common interest this week is the Dow's next milestone. Extrapolated, this means a majority of investors have already done their part to fuel the rally. I know less than a little about the print publishing business, but I know there's a lag. I'm always happy to give journalists my projections for a market, but it's dicey knowing my quote might not appear for days or even for weeks (when my projection is already met, right?). So, I also know Barron's editors probably pick their next cover story 5 days earlier. Way back then the 30,000 projection was almost 4{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} higher. Today it is 2.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}. So, the editors are probably right about their readership's interest. But they were more right last Monday -- which the article essentially acknowledges in its lead paragraphs. The "cover story jinx" honor isn't exclusive to Barron's, and is sometimes earned by Forbes, or Fortune, or Businessweek (pre-Bloomberg, of course). Topics selected as a cover story require a lot of evidence, persuasion, and consensus. All of which takes time, and meanwhile the rally ain't getting any younger. As a contrary indicator, majority agreement eventually runs out of new money to fund the trend.

The jinx isn't known for having immediate impact or for being precise. The greater question is whether the optimism for continuing an aging rally already needs another pullback to refuel.

Personally, I would have gone with "Dow 33,000" for at least some sensationalism. What's the difference, at this pace and at these heights? Surely this minor edit occurred to Barron's editors, so perhaps their own caution represents enough pessimism to dilute the jinx. For now.