Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Two separate headlines had triggered overnight trending down to 3327.50. The Employment Situation report's knee-jerk reaction blipped-up to unchanged at 3345.00, which was retraced entirely through Friday's open. Support at 3325.25 held two 1-point tests, but wasn't rejected, dooming to failure the morning's bounce up to 3340.00. Trending back down through the afternoon's no-bias window probed fresh lows at 3320.75, closing 4-6 points higher. Unfinished business was left outstanding at the afternoon's 3332.75 bias-down signal. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night's volatility was foreshadowed by its first 3 minutes, which blipped-down and then blipped-up in a 10-point range between 3319.50-3329.25. That wasn't much compared to the next half-hour's 26-point collapse touched 3303.50. The first hour's wide swings was outdone by the next 3 hours, rallying 34 points up to 3334.50. Sunday night's volatility slowed by midnight, and narrowed, centered around Friday's close and between the bias signals. Gradually drifting lower through Europe's opens has twice tested 3319.00-3320.00, both times reacting up to 3329.00-3330.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Overnight swings got high enough to neutralize Friday's 3332.75 "unfinished business." Extending Friday afternoon's drop was next targeting 3308.00-3311.00, but did Sunday night's brief collapse neutralize its attraction, too? Possibly, if Friday's 3320.75 low is also this morning's post-open low, forming a bullish Isolation setup. Recovering through the open from an Opening Thrust under Friday's low could also be bullish. Unfinished business above at Wednesday night's 3357.75 "new Globex trend extreme" would be in-play. But failing to hold 3316.50 and 3313.00 through a relevant window probably won't stop at 3308.00-3311.00, which already held an overnight support test Wednesday morning. The next lower objective would be 3275.00-3280.00. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3316.50 would be likely to trigger the 3320.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3313.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3314.25 bias-down target at 10:15, next targeting 3308.00 Exiting the open above 3327.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 3320.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3333.00 would be likely to trigger the 3329.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Gap down reverses the Opening Thrust's paradigm. Overnight action had been ranging back down to this morning's 3320.75 bias-down signal as support, and resisted by the 3329.75 bias-up signal. Breaking under the range's lower-end tested the 3313.00-3316.50 area before the open. Exiting the opening 15 minutes of volatility at 9:45 under 3313.00-3316.50 would have been bearish. Recovering through the open from a post-open dip to 3313.00-3316.50 would have been bullish. Starting at 3313.00-3316.50 not only held, but recovered positive territory through the open. Where the open was greeted by attacking the 3314.25 bias-down target, it was exited back above the 3320.50 bias-down signal. And the first half-hour extended through the 3329.75 bias-up signal to attack 3334.00. Being a bias-up environment, the 3329.75 bias-up signal as support should define the bias-up window's lower-end if tested, but its 337.00 bias-up target need not define the window's upper-end. Already testing the 3337.00 bias-up target by 1 point, while both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are overbought at resistance. This is not a sell signal, and only creates more vulnerability to a pullback but probably not to a reversal.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3342.25 3341.25 ...would target 3348.50 3347.50 Bias-down: under 3335.00 3334.00 ...would target 3328.75 3327.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS. TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Stuck. This morning's recovery from its 3316.50 open got up to 3341.50 during the bias environment. Ranging sideways entered the noon hour on a pullback that attacked 3333.00. That was a close call. Under 3332.50 would start to signal a deeper retracement underway, if only to 3327.00. Resuming the rally would be very credible until exceeding 3343.00 -- but it would be rewarded by a retest of last week's 3358.00 highs. Meanwhile, no resolution today is required, and buyers won't gain traction without already probing fresh session highs.

Extreme volatility Sunday night isn't so unusual, not when reacting to a headline catalyst. No weekend headlines seemed sufficient to take credit for Sunday night's immediate 10-point swing, 26-point collapse, and 31-point rally -- all well before midnight. Intraday volatility Monday was all but assured. Eventually retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the 3303.50 low's 3334.75 recovery greeted Monday's open at the relevant 3316.50 support. Its reaction surged back into positive territory above 3325.25 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility marginalize sellers. The morning's 3341.50 highs were retraced 8 points through the noon hour to trigger no-bias. Already rallying into the bias environment's exit was extended to a new high close testing 3353.50. The rally gained traction for its effort, but not based on the bias environment exit which was at or above the noon hour's high. The final hour's entry and proxy window each had trended higher. That's not optimal, nor is already extending 7 points above the proxy window's high. But the rally is still likelier to trend higher Tuesday morning. Presumably that would neutralize the attraction to last week's 3357.75 new Globex trend extreme requiring intraday retest. Which potentially would allow another reversal down. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3355.25 3354.25 ...would target 3363.00 3362.00 Bias-down: under 3347.00 3346.00 ...would target 3338.00 3337.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.