Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Mon's late surge back up to 4151 resistance was consolidated shallowly until firming through Europe's opens, and attacking 4168 resistance into CPI. Plunging to 4132 reversed up sharply to fresh highs at 4186. Sliding to 4114 through the open reversed up sharply to 4170. Yet another collapse to 4104 support was retraced through the noon hour up to 4155, ranging sideways through the close.
Overnight price points : Drifting straight down turned shallower through midnight as it approached the 4121 bias-down signal. Eventually testing it by another point began surging out of Europe's opens up to the 4135 bias-down signal. And now a consolidation there is suddenly breaking higher to 4142.
Catalysts : Retail Sales, No scheduled Fed speakers, earnings ongoing, WedEX.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : No active setup.
Their influences : - .

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : I had suggested stalking Tue's post-open action for even nominal strength that would reject the close under Mon's ~4150 highs and launch an overnight upleg. But another dip into WedEX's position-jockeying couldn't be dismissed -- the close's deficit was instead embraced as the afternoon range broke the other way, and its fall can't seem to get back up. Creating a pivotal low before midnight (by already rejecting the 4120 subsequent low back above their 4131 interim high) forms backing-and-filling, not trending. Greeting pre-open Retail Sales from such defensive posturing doesn't necessarily signal a favorable reaction but it makes a favorable resolution likelier to extend more substantially.
Alternative : Sellers didn't gain traction from yesterday's close either, which requires them to maintain a gap down to influence this morning. Triggering bias-down would confirm, and suggest the afternoon also intends to greet Thu's pre-open PPI from even deeper defensive posturing... Meanwhile, this knee-jerk reaction up has created a critical support at 4136 that would pierce the bullish template if greeting the news from below it, or without recovering back above it.
Levels : UP: 4168, 4200, 4231... DOWN: 4124, 4104, 4080.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Drifting straight down from Tue's 4146 close turned shallower through midnight as it approached the 4121 bias-down signal. Eventually testing it by another point began surging out of Europe's opens up to the 4135 bias-down signal. A blip-up to 4142 was reversed back into the earlier range.
New price points : Wed's pre-open econ report triggered a fresh low at 4116. Several bounces through the open back to the 4135 bias-down signal's resistance have been reversed to lower and lower lows at 4113.
Catalysts : Retail Sales, No scheduled Fed speakers, earnings ongoing (CSCO SHOP ROKU), WedEX.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : BIAS... Opening thrust.
Their influences : Lopsided sponsorship concentrated at the open's test of a relevant level, i.e. sellers at the 4121 bias-down target, which held through the first 15 minutes volatility. But that window and the setup's next two at 10:00 and 10:30 never reversed back above a relevant resistance to isolate sellers.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Breaking higher to 4142 while recording the Planner video had injected last-minute optimism ahead of Retail Sales. It was too late to be a reliable contrarian indicator, but already snapping back down may have discounted some of the report's bearish influence. At least, relevant support continues to hold. Rallying out of the bias window back above its 4135 bias-down signal would be likely to fill the gap back up to yesterday's 4146 cash session close, and credible for extending to yesterday's 4156 highs.
Alternative : The open's range has persisted at its lower levels, keeping the door open to fresh lows that would target 4107. While that could be a detour that stretches the rubber band for an afternoon recovery to 4146-4156, any lower would next target 4098.
Levels : UP: 4168, 4200, 4231... DOWN: 4124, 4104, 4080.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

WED P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 4151, targeting 4168.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4133, targeting 4122.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.