Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 02-16-2016

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1889.25 1885.00 ...would target  1896.25  1892.00 Bias-down: under  1882.75  1878.50 ...would target  1875.75  1871.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Recall that Friday's gap up had reacted down to test Thursday's "lower prior highs" down to 1834.00. Its test held, and the balance of the session trended up relentlessly to test 1860.00. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open gapped up 5 points and had extended to 1890.00 by Monday morning. Its reaction down to 1880.00 was recovered up to 1885.00 at the noon hour Globex close. Monday night's open rallied again, probing fresh highs up to 1892.75. That, too, reacted down -- testing Monday's reaction lows down to 1878.00, and up to 1885.00. If, then... Friday's buyers had gained traction for their efforts. Sunday night and Monday night's highs could easily qualify as their reward. But will it hold this morning, let alone extend higher? Holiday trading isn't often duplicated on its second day, and Friday's pre-holiday trending is often counter-trend. Nevertheless, not rejecting the interim rally would make higher highs likely, up to 1907.00 and 1920.00 before a new downleg would be credible. First Trade... Bias Parameters have been updated from those published at Friday's close. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1883.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 1878.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1875.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 1889.25 would be likely to trigger the 1885.00 bias-up signal.

Late dip extends well toward bias-down target. The 1882.25 open dipped to 1879.00 but recovered the dip fully at 9:45. The burden of proof was on sellers, they tried, and they failed. That would be bullish if buyers had exploited it by reversing above the open, but they did not. And sellers exploited that. Another dip fell to 1875.50. Reacting up to probed its bounce limit higher than its first 3 minutes. Not by much, not for long, and not without continually overlapping it. All of which sellers exploited by dipping again to 1872.50. Late breaks reflect weak-handed sponsorship. They don't prevent extending down, but that typically ends aggressively back to the upside. Coming within 3 ticks of the 1871.50 bias-down target instead of just 4 would have helped to suggest that sellers are done. Nevertheless, back above the 1878.50 bias-down signal at 10:30 or 11:30 would trap shorts. Otherwise, the 1871.50 bias-down target remains in-play.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1887.75 1883.75 ...would target  1893.75 1890.00 Bias-down: under  1882.25  1878.50 ...would target  1876.75  1872.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Post-open dip recovered and reversed. Nothing about the opening dips suggested that their sponsorship was strong-handed. That doesn't prevent dipping, but the recovery tends to be aggressive. And it was. Testing this morning's 1871.50 pullback limit launched a reversal that probed fresh session highs at 1887.00 going into the noon hour. That was extended up to 1891.50 coming out off the noon hour. Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above 1891.50 would essentially marginalize sellers for the day. Fresh highs targeting 1907.00 and potentially 1920.00 would be in-play. Back under 1886.00 would start to signal no further upside for today, and potentially a slide to the 1873.00 area.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1896.25 1892.25 ...would target  1901.25  1897.50 Bias-down: under  1885.75  1882.00 ...would target 1879.50  1875.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Buyers didn't gain any traction for Tuesday's efforts. That's based on the bias environment's exit still overlapping the noon hour's range, and the final hour's entry overlapping both. And that's surprising, considering their rescue of the morning's dive. The morning's dive was sponsored by weak hands, so its recovery wasn't surprising. Its reversal stopped 3 ticks short of the 1982.75 overnight high, not necessarily due to pessimism, so a higher high isn't required. But it wouldn't be surprising. None of which equates to being a sell signal. But extending higher without one would all but require gapping up, or at least probing higher overnight. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.