Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 02-19-2015
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET) Through the prior close... Overnight action''s new info... If, then... First Trade... Another day, another doomed dip. The pre-open Grexit drama had reversed a 6-point surge to 2099.50 with a 9-1/2 point plunge to 2090.00. Room for noise under it to 2087.00 was attacked to within 1 tick during the open''s first several minutes. And held. That helped to suggest the 2099.75 bias-down signal would be recovered through 10:15 to avoid triggering. And it was recovered, triggering "no-bias." Having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2099.75 bias-up signal is in-play. Currently, just filling the gap back to yesterday''s 2095.50 futures close is causing the recovery to hesitate. Getting through interim resistance at 2097.50 would help to confirm the current leg''s momentum remains intact. I would expect any fresh high to also fulfill the unfinished business above at 2101.50. 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap. Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE)) Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) 30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI)) Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) If Friday''s open were to dip... then it would be the fourth consecutive such open. Therefore, it would be unlikely to recover immediately like the prior three opening dips. Also there being three consecutive opening dips, Friday''s open isn''t likely to dip. Pattern points... (Setups and technicals) So, the bias-down wasn''t invalidated, and it''s target wasn''t met. But exiting the bias environment back AT 2095.50 does undermine the signal. Perhaps the 4-point plunge just knocked the wind out of the rally. Perhaps it was otherwise irrelevant expiration position-jockeying. I''m going to ignore it. Three consecutive opening dips have been absorbed, and the last two barely pierced positive territory. That is not excessive optimism. Tuesday afternoon''s 2101.50 bias-up target remains outstanding as "unfinished business above." A downdraft is possible, but it would be unlikely to extend without first recovering to probe fresh highs. Meanwhile, fresh highs remain likely. What''s Next... (Outlook and opportunities) 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.Pre-Open Day Trading Bias - 7:44 AM
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Perhaps it was probably the afternoon''s impending FOMC Minutes release that kept Wednesday morning within a choppy 2089.00-2094.50 sideways range. If so, then the same inhibition prevented the gap down from extending. Extending down wasn''t likely, anyway -- but neither the favorable knee-jerk reaction to FOMC nor its follow-up did more than probe momentarily into positive territory at 2097.00.
Narrow ranging down to 2093.25 plunged ahead of Europe''s opens, probing yesterday''s low down to 2087.25. Recovering back to 2093.25 suddenly surged 6 points to 2099.50 on news that Greece officially requested a loan extension, and that the ECB saw it as a positive sign. Wait, there''s more. Germany rejected the request, triggering an even faster 9-1/2 point plunge to 2090.00. So, it''s going to be one of those days.
The more recent plunge is a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} extension of the original surge''s measurement. It''s calculable support. Not that it must hold, but it allows the reaction down to be only a temporary correction that recovers to higher highs. And, why not, since Grexit may be resolved in principle very soon. Greece seems conciliatory, ECB seems agreeable, and Germany is keeping the tit-for-tat lively. The market had better agree quickly, because the next leg down would be much bigger than 9-1/2 points. Not coincidentally, the plunge''s extremes are defined by this morning''s bias signals, and breaking one would likely trend.
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2087.00 would make the 2090.75 bias-down signal likely to trigger at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2094.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Above 2096.50 would be likely at least to test the 2099.75 bias-up signal, which won''t be any likelier to trigger without also already recovering above 2101.50.
Day Trading Opening Trends - 10:55 AM
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Tonight's Day Trading Strategy - 12:01 PM
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2099.75
...would target 2107.25
2104.00
Bias-down: under 2098.75
2095.50
...would target 2092.25
2089.00
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Daily Spot - 2:18 PM
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Thursday''s narrow ranging didn''t immediately exploit Wednesday''s recovery from having trended down initially intraday. Delaying further improvement at this stage of the pattern is itself potentially bearish. But early strength Friday would be credible for resuming the rally.
The post-close reaction to Wednesday''s FOMC Minutes extended higher overnight to test the 1216.00 bounce limit up to 1223.00. Thursday''s gap up began reversing down immediately to test 1206.50, and to maintain the decline''s momentum, targeting 1191.50.
Thursday''s gap up above Wednesday''s high did not extend higher, and did not reverse the trend up. Its immediate peak reversed down but stopped optimistically short of actually touching Wednesday''s close. That optimism can be bearish from a contrarian perspective
Wednesday''s bounce limit test at 144-30 gapped back down to and through 144-18 Thursday and ranged sideways. No targets or requirements are outstanding.
[Rolling coverage forward to Apr from Mar, 65-cent premium] Wednesday''s post-close reaction to inventory reports was extended overnight. But Thursday''s touch of uptrending support at 49.90 reacted up sharply to fill the gap back to Wednesday''s 52.36 close, maintaining the larger Ascending Triangle pattern resisted by 54.65.
Thursday''s probe of fresh highs was brief before reversing back into negative territory. The reversal was recovered entirely, and a fresh high close remains outstanding.
Day Trading Summary - 5:01 PM
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Thursday afternoon''s 2095.50 bias-down signal was probed during the noon hour, but a 4-point plunge, which ended within 3 minutes, and wasn''t probed any deeper. But it wasn''t recovered in time to avoid triggering at the bias environment''s entry. And it wasn''t recovered in time to be invalidated at the bias environment''s exit.
Friday''s expiration has several unique nuances. One is that trending through the opening 15 minutes is likely to trend in that direction through the day. Friday Factors will also apply, like the morning''s bias signal tending to persist through the noon hour.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Strategy - 5:03 PM
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2099.75
...would target 2107.25
2104.00
Bias-down: under 2094.25
2090.75
...would target 2087.75
2084.25
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.