Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday night's 21-point dip to 3890.00 was converted into a 20-point gain up to 3931.00 before Friday's open. The intraday range was fully encompassed. The morning's bias-up targeting 3927.50 got to within 4 points of overnight highs before eventually reversing back down to within 6-7 points of overnight lows at 3897.00. No new attractions were left outstanding. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Forming complete pivot reversals during a session's first timing window tend to fail miserably. Sunday night's example gapped up to 3911.50, reversed down to probe under Friday's low at 3984.00, then reversed back up a higher high at 3914.50. That's a bullish pivot reversal when it develops over multiple timing windows. Instead it becomes a continuation pattern, and this one extended down to 3861.00. A bounce up to 3879.00 is still deeply negative and testing 2-week old lows. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Intraday bounces not gaining traction last week never reflected accumulation. Now the overnight slide is confirming that action was distributive, chipping away at support. While often difficult to attract intraday reinforcements, Sunday night trending that extends through the open can extend considerably intraday. And while deep, follow-through so far is hardly excessive. Only prior lows have been tested, with the nearest downside objective discussed Saturday being 3853.50 (then 3833.00 and potentially 3766.00). Already rallying pre-open and not touching prior lows post-open would be credible for rallying intraday. Otherwise, today has more downside ahead. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Recovery attempt comes too late. Market Tour described the only bullish scenario, which would isolate the overnight probe under the 3885.00 prior low by already opening back above it. That was hardly even attempted, but the pre-open comments described the only remaining bullish scenario as exiting the first 15 minutes above 3885.00. That wasn't attempted until after 9:45, when a position of weakness was already established. Barely touching the post-open bounce's 3889.00-3992.00 target range reacted down sharply. Bias-down was renewed. The 3861.00 overnight low stopped short of the 3853.50 likely next objective -- with some interim support at 3867.00. Failing to isolate the overnight lows makes its test likely. One more bullish path would exit the bias window recovering its 3895.00 bias-down signal. Otherwise, today's trend remains down.

MON P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is LATE BIAS-UP BIAS-UP: above 3892.00 signal would target 3901.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3875.75 signal would target 3867.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

Holding up. Opening under 3885.00 and not recovering it through the open had marginalized sellers for the morning. It held. Exiting the morning bias window above 3885.00 would have signaled that selling pressures are done. It held again. Now entering this afternoon's bias window above 3885.00 is no longer sufficient to be bullish. But the 3892.00 bias-up did trigger and its 3901.00 bias-up target is already being attacked up to 3898.00. The gap back to Friday's 3903.50 cash session close could be filled, too. Not rejecting the open under 3885.00 suggests that this rally is coming from a position of weakness, making it likely to fail. At least vulnerable to failing, and sliding to fresh lows. But this rally would be credible for extending back to prior highs, while still being likely to fail, so I'm giving it a benefit of the doubt until disproved.

Sunday night's 3914.50 high had reversed down overnight to 3861.00, the lowest lows in more than 2 weeks. Entering or exiting the open above the recent 3885.00 low would have isolated the overnight extension and allowed a durable recovery. Delaying its recovery only doomed to failure the afternoon's 3899.00 high. Trending down through the bias window exit slid to 3872.00 through the close. Unfinished business was left outstanding at the afternoon's 3901.00 bias-up target. Monday repeated the pattern of an intraday recovery that only reaches relevant resistance. Monday's high filled a gap, as had most of last week's intraday bounces. As a reminder: those bounces have been eking the market lower and lower. A bullish opening setup Tuesday would be credible for rejecting Monday's weakness. Meanwhile, Monday's weakness -- while not actually gaining traction -- has set a distributive tone for the week, especially as Fed Chair Powell's 2-day congressional testimony arrives. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

TUE A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED BIAS-UP: above 3886.75 signal would target 3896.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3869.75 signal would target 3857.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals.