Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 03-11-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Tuesday''s open gapped down 17 points to a new low, immediately fulfilling the decline''s 2060.00 target. The morning''s extended down to test the next lowest target at 2048.50, which then supported flat-to-lower ranging through the afternoon. That is, until the position-squaring window ended. The session''s last several minutes plunged to 2041.25

Overnight action''s new info...
Immediately rallying until retracing Tuesday''s late plunge then corrected into Europe''s opens. Higher highs reached 2052.25. Its reaction down is now testing the late plunge''s 2048.50 origin as support. By several ticks.

If, then...
Having trended down into yesterday''s close, gapping up above yesterday afternoon''s 2054.25 high would form a "session-long rally" setup. That has been attempted to within 4 points, which isn''t yet close enough to consider a failed attempt. That would invert the potentially bullish setup into being bearish. Meanwhile, 2048.50 and 2056.00 are big lines in the sand that can define whether the decline extends next to 2037.00, or begins a big recovery attempt.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2047.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2053.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2055.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. And exiting the open under 2043.50 would be likely at least to test the 2041.00 bias-down signal.

Down the up staircase?

The 2052.25 overnight high''s retest wasn''t even contemplated by the open, which had pulled back to 2047.00. Choppy ranging back up to 2049.50 finally resolved down. 

Now this morning''s 2041.00 bias-down signal is being probed. It''s too late to trigger, or to invalidate the no-bias signal. Probing under it at this late stage is "no-bias trending" that requires eventually being retraced.

So, probing under it to test the decline''s 2037.00 target would require its complete retracement. Often, that would include the 10:15 print, which this morning was 2045.50.

That''s essentially the only remaining path up today. Regardless of the calculable levels, just closing above this morning''s 2049.25 high would form a bullish Pivot Reversal -- rejecting the intraday new trend low to confirm the gap up. 

Meanwhile, until either testing the 2037.00 target, or at least the 2039.50 low''s oversold RSIs and then retracing the no-bias trending, the decline remains intact.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2052.00
2050.75
...would target 2057.25
2056.00
Bias-down: under 2043.50
2042.25
...would target 2038.25
2037.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Avoiding bias signal tests doesn''t mean no active attraction.

This afternoon''s bias signals weren''t touched. Neither were this morning''s. Triggering no-bias, without even touching a bias signal, is not terribly rare in the afternoon. It is somewhat unusual in the morning. Two in the same day isn''t common.

So, this is a no-bias environment, with no bias requirement. But this morning''s oversold RSIs at the 2039.50 low do require a retest. And its retest is likely also to visit 2037.00. Retesting the lows was always likely, unless the noon hour were entered or exited above the open''s highs.

In fact, while preparing the above, the noon hour''s range broke lower, and the break just touched 2039.50. RSIs are oversold simultaneously again, so bouncing from here would be equally doomed.

2037.00 can be probed intraday without consequence. Recovering it through the close would prevent putting a lower target into play. But not closing today back above 2048.50 to reverse momentum up would keep the door open to extending down anyway.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The next lower target at 1.0590 was fulfilled overnight, and then exceeded intraday Wednesday to test 1.0515. The next lower potential support is 1.0430.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday night''s selling extended Wednesday to fresh lows that tested the 1148.00 target down to 1146.50. The target held as support through the close, which was also testing 1154.00. Back above 1161.00 would be the first suggestion that momentum is reversing up.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The longstanding attraction to probe under December''s 16.50 lows was fulfilled finally on Wednesday morning''s drop to test4 16.25. The decline''s momentum remains intact unless 16.75 were recovered through the close.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing higher to 159-10 Tuesday night could be dismissed as noise before backing-and-filling or reversing down. In fact, Wednesday''s open did gap down to test 158-00. But another flight-to-quality triggered a retest of the overnight highs up to 159-24. Closing above 160-00 would signal the trend had reversed up, and back under 158-00 would target a retest of the lows.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday''s close back under 50.00 was confirmed by Wednesday''s second consecutive lower close, which had recovered back above 48.00 after probing it considerably intraday.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A momentary fresh low overnight was retraced back to unchanged before Wednesday''s open. Then the morning surged sharply, through the 2.77 signal to test the 2.84 confirmation, both of which were tested last week.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2049.25
2040.50
...would target 2053.75
2045.00
Bias-down: under 2038.00
2029.25
...would target 2031.75
2023.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.