VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: FRI P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: MON A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Pre-Market Open Predictions - 7:22 AM
Edit
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Trending up through midnight and Europe's opens to 4001 was consolidated widely until trending back up through the open. Initial corrective targets were exceeded to attack 4040 at the A.M. bias window's high. Trending back down through the afternoon retraced it all on the way down to test and retest 3949, reacting up to 3992-3995.
Overnight price points : An initial dip to 3971 was recovered through Europe's opens to the 3998 bias-up signal, which reacted down sharply to the 3963 bias-down signal. That broke lower to probe the bias-down target and Thu's late tests of 3949 with tests of 3942, and lower to 3940 despite RSIs diverging positively.
Catalysts : Durable Goods, PMI flash, Bullard, More bank slides, FOMC/Yellen fallout.
Setups/Patterns : Channel test, Friday Factors.
Their influences : The week+ old uptrending channel is testing its lower-end, following FOMC day's test of the channel's upper-end... Friday morning's bias signal tends to persist through the morning.
Premise : Assuming no deeper or durable lower lows, the open has potential to isolate a test of yesterday's lows. And that could be bullish for the morning/day if reversed up through the open. Just avoiding a bias-down -- now testing both bias-down parameters -- would earn a bounce. Much depends not only on the pre-open econ report and on what Bullard says, but on the market's initial reaction, i.e. does it want to interpret new info bullishly.
Alternative : A probe maintained under 3940 would signal a deeper drop underway, confirmed by renewing bias-down.
Levels : UP: 3999, 4018, 4040... DOWN: 3940, 3888, 3852.
Stock Market Morning Strategy - 11:22 AM
Edit
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : An initial dip to 3971 was recovered through Europe's opens to the 3998 bias-up signal, which reacted down sharply to the 3963 bias-down signal. That broke lower to probe the bias-down target and Thu's late tests of 3949 with tests of 3942, and lower to 3940 despite RSIs diverging positively.
New price points : A choppy open has contained multiple setups -- beginning with the pre-open last-minute surge to a fresh extreme which is usually unsustainable weak-handed optimism. Reversing it 27 points attacked pre-open lows before recovering to at least invoke the grace period. An extra dip was recovered in time to trigger late bias-up. Nevertheless, extending to fresh highs at 3974 is attacking earlier lows down to 3943.
Catalysts : Durable Goods, PMI flash, Bullard, More bank slides, FOMC/Yellen fallout.
Setups/Patterns : LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS PARAMETERS... Opening Thrust, Friday Factors.
Their influences : Exiting the bias window under its bias-down target would invalidate the original signal. The first half-hour recovered from probing fresh lows, and then the first hour had extended higher, which on Fridays often dictates the balance of the session... Friday morning's bias signal tends to persist through the morning.
Triggers/Tactics : So many bullish inputs through the first half-hour, first hour, and bias signals, all pointing higher -- albeit no necessarily in a straight line. None of which suggests buying too deep of an interim dip, but probes back above earlier highs as the bias window lapses should be expected to be very productive.
Alternative : So many bullish inputs, and still challenging the lows, at least probing both bias-down parameters. Exiting the bias window under its 3948 bias-down target (now being tested) would invalidate the otherwise bullish no-bias, if not reverse its implications and resume the decline.
Levels : UP: 3999, 4018, 4040... DOWN: 3940, 3888, 3852.
Tonight's Day Trading Strategy - 11:59 AM
Edit
BIAS-UP will trigger above 3985, targeting 4001.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3964, targeting 3951.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Market Mid-Day Predictions - 2:09 PM
Edit
Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : An initial dip to 3971 was recovered through Europe's opens to the 3998 bias-up signal, which reacted down sharply to the 3963 bias-down signal. That broke lower to probe the bias-down target and Thu's late tests of 3949 with tests of 3942, and lower to 3940 despite RSIs diverging positively. A last-minute surge to a fresh extreme signaled unsustainable weak-handed optimism at Fri's open that reversed down 27 points. An extra dip was recovered in time to trigger late bias-up.
New price points : NewSummary.
Catalysts : Durable Goods, PMI flash, Bullard, More bank slides, FOMC/Yellen fallout.
Setups/Patterns : NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP... Friday Factors.
Their influences : Slow-playing the noon hour's strength until the bias window starts lapsing would leave no unfinished business below if the last 60-90 minutes surges.
Triggers/Tactics : So many bullish inputs through the first half-hour, first hour, and bias signals, all pointed higher. Challenging earlier lows was ultimately contained to be proved just more of the same post-open selling that had yet to be absorbed. Aggressive probes back above earlier highs as the bias window lapsed offered the last available confirmation that the selling is absorbed.
Alternative : Not trending up to fresh post-open highs as the bias window starts lapsing, if not already as it comes into view, would again suggest another round of selling.
Levels : UP: 3999, 4018, 4040... DOWN: 3940, 3888, 3852.
Bias Wrap - 4:32 PM
Edit
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Today's price points : Overnight's 3998 high reacted down sharply on the way to retest Thu's late lows at 3937. Its reaction produced a last-minute surge to a fresh extreme that signaled unsustainable weak-handed optimism at Fri's open. That was the first of 3 borderline existential dips, each recovered in time to avoid sellers gaining traction. Trending up through the close extended to 4011.
Catalysts : Durable Goods, PMI flash, Bullard, More bank slides, FOMC/Yellen fallout.
Setups/Patterns : Fri PM Drift.
Their influences : Exiting Fri's P.M. bias window above the noon hour high all but marginalizes sellers through the close.
Premise : Sellers through a lot at Fri morning's market, and each timing window absorbed it, even the least often used window that immediately follows the bias signal's trigger. But their required resolution and likely behaviors developed as the weekend was greeted above overnight highs, rejecting the interim probe under overnight lows.
Alternative : Fulfilling upside objectives intraday means none was left outstanding as unfinished business. And not closing above resistance like a prior intraday high means no upside traction was gained. Extending higher Mon morning requires gapping up, while any shallower open -- let alone gapping down -- would be likelier to resume the decline.
Levels : UP: 3999, 4018, 4040... DOWN: 3940, 3888, 3852.
Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 4:56 PM
Edit
BIAS-UP will trigger above 4012, targeting 4029.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3992, targeting 3978.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.