VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: MON P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: TUE A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Pre-Open Stock Market Plan - 7:39 AM
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Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Thu night's 3998 high was reversed down sharply to probe Thu's pre-close lows down to 3937. Its reaction formed a bullish Opening Thrust that signaled uptrending into the weekend. But the morning was in no rush, and formed 2 more borderline existential dips, each one recovering in time to isolate its sellers. Trending up through the close extended to 4011.
Overnight price points : Try, try, and try yet again... The 4029 bias-up target has been attacked twice and is now being probed slightly. Sun night's open had immediately extended Fri's rally to within 2 points of the bias-up target at 4027. A dip to the 4011 bias-down signal was retraced into Europe's opens, but that only reacted down more so to 3998. More sharply, and more briefly, already retracing entirely again, and now also probing fresh highs to 4034.
Catalysts : No scheduled influential catalysts.
Setups/Patterns : Globex-flip.
Their influences : Currently only threatened, having probed Fri's highs overnight and then reversed back under the 4007-4021 Globex open range. So, either breaking lower through the first 15 min's, or isolating a similar dip post-open, would trigger the setup and define the morning's direction.
[Here's this week's video of several earnings reaction forecasts.]
Premise : As discussed during Saturday Review, the weekend exit is essentially a singular challenge: Fri fulfilled its intraday upside targets which leaves no nearby unfinished business above to ensure extending Fri's bounce, which had otherwise peaked too low to gain traction for its efforts. And that makes extending the bounce Mon a "make-or-break" proposition. This would also avoid forming (let alone triggering) a bearish Globex-flip and maybe trigger its bullish version, forecasting a morning uptrend. Regardless of a post-open dip, exiting the first 15 minutes above overnight highs should at least marginalize sellers for the morning.
Alternative : Saturday's discussion of possible bullish paths did include a back-and-fill, which probing higher Sun night undermines because dipping now could form a bearish Globex-flip setup.
Levels : UP: 4050, 4092, 4121... DOWN: 3998, 3981, 3952.
Market Opening Thoughts - 11:13 AM
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Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Sun night's open had immediately extended Fri's rally to within 2 points of the bias-up target at 4027. A dip to the 4011 bias-down signal was retraced into Europe's opens, but that only reacted down more so to 3998. More sharply, and more briefly, then also retraced entirely on the way to fresh highs at 4034.
New price points : Reacting down through the open to 4019 was recovered to pierce the pre-open high momentarily, long enough to isolate sellers under the Globex open's 4021 high. That bullish Globex-flip, and triggering bias-up, didn't prevent reversing down again to 4004.
Catalysts : No scheduled influential catalysts.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-UP, TARGET MET... Globex-flip.
Their influences : Having probed above Fri's highs overnight, dipping into the 4007-4021 Globex open range and recovering above it through 9:45 is a bullish Globex-flip. So far, that's only offering context to assume the subsequent dip's recovery.
Triggers/Tactics : Not even testing the pre-open high until after 9:45 would have been bullish earlier. Isolating it after that and before 10:30 isn't bullish. All of which may need the bias window to lapse before resolving back up. And that should resolve up, so long as this morning's pullback holds positive territory. Resolving up should be aggressive, not just reversing the post-open direction, but also changing character from the gradual drip-drip-drip lower and lower.
Alternative : Having already met the bias-up target, exiting the bias window under its 3992 bias-down signal would negate the requirement to at least retrace its 4012 bias-up signal -- let alone any setups that had offered bullish context.
Levels : UP: 4050, 4092, 4121... DOWN: 3998, 3981, 3952.
Tonight's Market Predictions - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4014, targeting 4028.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3995, targeting 3982.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Mid-Day Update - 2:03 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Sun night's dip to 3998 was retraced entirely on the way to fresh highs at 4034, which was retested after a brief post-open dip. The resulting bullish Globex-flip and bias-up didn't produce uptrending.
New price points : The 4003 gap-fill to Fri's cash session close has bounced to attack the Globex open's 4021 high.
Catalysts : No scheduled influential catalysts.
Setups/Patterns : LATE BIAS-UP.
Their influences : - .
Triggers/Tactics : Trending down through the morning nevertheless maintained positive territory throughout. For all of its relentless selling pressure, negative territory wasn't probed. And any attraction to filling Fri's gap was neutralized. No unfinished business below or other attractions, but the late bias-up is not yet being more productive than its temporary follow-through.
Alternative : A deeper pullback or decline could still develop. Gaining almost downside traction would likely be aggressive.
Levels : UP: 4050, 4092, 4121... DOWN: 3998, 3981, 3952.
Bias Wrap - 4:32 PM
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Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Today's price points : Sun night's dip to 3998 was retraced entirely on the way to fresh highs at 4034, which was retested after a brief post-open dip. The resulting bullish Globex-flip and bias-up didn't produce uptrending. The 4003 gap-fill to Fri's cash session close was also probed to 4000. Its reversal triggered bias-up, and retraced entirely from its 4028 target back down to 4003.
Catalysts : Tue -- Pre-open housing reports, post-open Consumer Confidence, SVB causes focus.
Setups/Patterns : Range bound.
Their influences : Essentially all of Mon's timing windows were spent in positive territory without extending higher, which may be the basis for ineffectual optimism. But the A.M. bias window only trended down which is pessimism -- albeit only in positive territory which can make that ineffectual pessimism. So, there is no shortage of opinion or its expression, and gapping in either direction Tue would be likely to extend for the morning.
Premise : Trending down through Mon morning while maintaining positive territory was rewarded by the afternoon's corrective bounce that fulfilled targets at the bias-up target. Closing higher would have gained traction to extend Tue. Instead, the late reaction down must be rejected immediately and aggressively to resume the afternoon's earlier rally. The next higher reward is likely 4041 and potentially 4060.
Alternative : by throughout. For all of its relentless selling pressure, negative territory wasn't probed. And any attraction to filling Fri's gap was neutralized. No unfinished business below or other attractions, but the late bias-up is not yet being more productive than its temporary follow-through. A deeper pullback or decline could still develop. Gaining almost downside traction would likely be aggressive. Mon afternoon's bounce was as high as possible without disproving it was only a temporary corrective bounce. Its late reaction down stopped short of reversing momentum, but gapping down would be vulnerable to retracing much of Fri's rally.
Levels : UP: 4050, 4092, 4121... DOWN: 3998, 3981, 3952.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Strategy - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4018, targeting 4031.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3998, targeting 3982.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.