Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday morning's open was the market's version of "bait & switch." After only ranging sideways Sunday night, Monday's open was greeted flat with Friday's close. But all of that complacency suddenly gave way to a post-open decline. Attacking the morning's 2906.00 bias-down signal to within 1 tick through 10:15 didn't trigger it, but it was invalidated by breaking lower through 10:30. Sellers were rewarded down to 2900.50, taking 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs simultaneously oversold. Bouncing out of the noon hour retested Friday's 2910.00 gap up, which was still being tested at the close. Overnight action's new info... Monday afternoon's recovery continued without delay at the Globex open, but incrementally, which still qualifies as relentless. A blip-up attacked the 2914.50 prior night's high and retraced back down to 2910.00. Another blip-up after midnight to 2916.50 was retraced back down to 2913.00. Having chipped away at resistance, Europe's opens was soon followed by a surge to 2920.00-2921.25, which has been fluctuating around the 2919.00 bias-up target for several hours, forming a "new Globex trend extreme" that is often retested the same day. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Monday morning's collapse stopped short of touching last week's "lower prior highs" at 2898.00 and lower. This disqualified the afternoon's recovery from neutralizing Friday's 2910.00 open above all prior highs. So, a downleg wouldn't yet be credible for extending. Meanwhile, the shallow dips reflected that optimism remained high. No matter how bearish that is from a contrarian perspective, impatient buyers are often rewarded anyway --- just not by nearly as much as anticipated. So, probing fresh highs had become likelier before first dipping any deeper, having stopped short twice Friday afternoon and Monday morning. Fresh highs remain vulnerable to rejection, although gapping up does make that window brief again like Friday. Unlike Friday, the overnight rally should resolve in one direction or the other immediately and/or more substantially. I describe these routes specifically in the Market Tour recording. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2920.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2919.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2926.50-2928.00. Exiting the open above 2915.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2913.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Post-open buyers are scarce. The overnight rally up to 2921.25 had ranged sideways for 5-1/2 hours into the open. The series of higher highs and higher lows was maintained, so the overnight in its entirety still qualifies as trending. Relentless trending. But its sponsorship was ready to pass the baton. Fluctuating sideways around the 2919.00 bias-up target through the opening 15 minutes of volatility wasn't itself predictive. No pattern was formed, other than the inability to extend above the bias-up target. Overnight sponsorship wasn't attracting intraday reinforcements. Price began slipping and has tested the 2913.00 bias-up signal down to 2911.50. Its test should define the window's lower-end, this being a bias-up environment. Probing under it before the window lapses would require its retracement. Already having been met, the 2919.00 bias-up target won't become unfinished business if left outstanding. But the 2919.25 opening print and the 2921.25 "new Globex trend extreme" both want to be retested intraday. Back above 2915.50 would start to signal their tests underway.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2912.50 2916.75 ...would target 2917.75 2922.00 Bias-down: under 2903.75 2908.00 ...would target 2896.75 2901.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Another gap up being used for distribution. Unfinished business above remains outstanding at the 2921.25 "new Globex trend extreme," which requires intraday retest, often the same day. The 2919.25 opening gap above all prior highs wants to be filled, too. Neither is required to be tested within any particular time frame, and a deep reversal down could develop in the interim. A deep reversal down is trying to develop now. At least, it tried to develop this morning. Post-open action dropped 7 points from testing the 2919.00 bias-up target's resistance to test the 2913.00 bias-up signal's support. While 2913.00 defined the window's lower-end as advertised, it has continued defining the noon hour's lower-end, too. Now no-bias has triggered, and the next 45-60 minutes should be range bound. That range includes the afternoon's 2908.00 bias-down signal, which would fulfill a probe into negative territory. Unfinished business above wouldn't prevent extending lower, but would inhibit it anyway. Otherwise, back above 2915.50 would start to signal the unfinished business may be in-play, first.

Paraphrasing, "Behind every higher high there stands a gap up." Lately, at least. Tuesday's gap up was the product of relentless overnight trending. Often enough, intraday reinforcements aren't attracted to replace the relentless overnight trend's retiring sponsorship. Similar to the overnight trend's two higher highs that were retraced to their origins, Tuesday's gap up to 2919.25 was retraced to pierce 1 tick under Monday's 2910.00 close. That was the minimum structural likelihood for a reversal. A calculable objective at 2908.50 was probed down to 2904.50 when plunging into the position-squaring window. Its reaction recovered to test Monday's 2910.00 close -- which was still being overlapped up to 2912.00 at the close. So, in addition to maintaining the pattern of selling intraday bounces and gaps up, overnight rally gained no traction for its effort. Meanwhile, the Dow outperformed ES again overnight, extending its overnight rally to within one hour of the open, while ES continued ranging sideways. Dow also outperformed when the afternoon collapse barely pierced the morning's low, while ES made decisively fresh session lows. However, NQs also outperformed both ES and the Dow, neither of which probed fresh post-open highs as did NQs. So, day-two of the comparison wasn't equally bearish, but we'll be extra interested on Wednesday ahead of this week's expiration. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2910.25 2914.50 ...would target 2917.25 2921.50 Bias-down: under 2902.25 2906.50 ...would target 2895.25 2899.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.