Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 04-28-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday morning's choppy ranging in negative territory had dipped 10-12 points down to 2076.25, draining the market of optimism ahead of the afternoon's FOMC statement. Its knee-jerk reaction down to 2077.50 stopped short of neutralizing oversold RSIs at the low before reversing up above prior highs to 2094.00. The rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour's high and then trending to fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. A late dip fell to 2088.00. Overnight action's new info... The last-minute dip was gradually recovered entirely, eventually touching 2094.25. The BOJ policy statement took a surprising twist by not increasing asset purchases. The Nikkei crashed 1000 points, while ES plunged 20 points to 2074.00. Bouncing to 2083.00 has resolved down to lower lows at 2070.25. If, then... Only the most die-hard Keynesian still truly believes there is an endless supply of stimulus. Unfortunately, those people tend to work for a central bank where they can keep playing that tune. Well, did their music just stop? BOJ's decision seems truly to be a surprise, less because of the plunge it triggered, and more for coming after yesterday afternoon's buyers had gained traction. So far, only Monday's 2071.00 low is being retested, with room below it down to 2067.00-2069.00. Any lower could get ugly, but rallying back above relevant levels by mid-morning would suggest the surprise had been absorbed. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2080.50 would be likely to hold the 2076.00 bias-down target through 10:15. Exiting the open above 2086.25-2087.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2083.75 bias-down signal.

Opening above yesterday's lows marginalizes sellers. Despite having dipped overnight down to 2070.25, opening above yesterday's 2076.25-2077.50 lows could compartmentalize the bearish sentiment. Proof would come from maintaining that much of a recovery, and then also quickly extending it.

The 2080.25 opening print blipped-down 3 points before surging to and through the 2086.25-2087.00 objective I had described during the pre-market Tour. The gap back to yesterday's 2089.50 cash session close has been filled to within 1 tick.

Only pre-open price action tested the 2076 bias-down target. So, recovering the 2083.75 bias-down signal puts into play an offsetting test of only the 2092.75 bias-up signal. Extending to the 2099.00 bias-up target this morning isn't likely. Possible, but not likely.

Overbought RSIs at 2091.25 require its retest. Traction gained by yesterday afternoon's rally suggest the recovery will extend this morning. Only violating a pullback limit at 2088.00 is creating an obstacle. Actually, the two prior opening patterns are also obstacles to extending higher this morning. Similar to this morning, they also surged post-open, held tests of resistance, and then reversed down substantially. I'll give the recovery credit so long as the 2083.75 bias-down signal holds as support.

And positive territory probed. Holding a test of this morning's 2083.75 bias-down signal through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 2092.75 bias-up signal. This objective has been met. Yesterday afternoon's rally had gained traction for its effort, making this morning likely to trend up. That objective has been fulfilled. An offsetting test of this morning's 2099.00 bias-up target isn't required. Although the 2076.00 bias-down target was tested thoroughly overnight, it was tested only overnight. But the bias environment is now lapsing, so its upper-end need not be defined by the bias-up signal. And there's no bearish reason to have retraced back to yesterday's highs. None of which prevents a reaction down, but any reaction down should be only temporary.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2100.75  2095.00 ...would target  2106.25  2100.50 Bias-down: under  2093.75 2088.00 ...would target  2088.75  2083.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The series of higher lows and higher highs since Monday's low may have come to an end. Thursday afternoon's slide from 2093.50 fell 28 points into the close. A last-minute bounce from 2065.50 finished back above the 2067.00-2069.00 lower target under yesterday's lows. Testing 2067.00-2069.00 could still launch a new rally leg, so long the test held, and so long as the launch was done appropriately. RSIs did diverge negatively at the low, so there is no "unfinished business below." And the sudden relentlessness of the afternoon's slide actually makes it easier to retrace. But the afternoon's downtrend remains intact. The afternoon's sellers gained traction -- they've already been well-rewarded, so gapping up above the bias environment's 2088.00 high could invert that traction. Otherwise, Friday's only other bullish bounce potential is from an early test of 2056.50. Yikes. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2085.50 2079.75 ...would target  2091.75  2086.00 Bias-down: under  2072.00  2066.25 ...would target 2055.25  2059.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.