Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 05-07-2015

Expert Pre-Open Trading Strategy - 7:54 AM

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

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(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
However Wednesday''s opening test of the prior afternoon''s 2090.75 high were to resolve, it would determine whether Tuesday afternoon''s sellers would be trapped. They had gained traction, and invalidating them would have triggered a squeeze. But the open''s blip-up pierced the 2092.75-2093.50 preliminary resistance and quickly reversed down sharply -- plunging, actually, to 2070.50 which was the morning''s low. Bouncing to 2083.75 failed to invalidate a lower target, which was met during the afternoon bias environment''s slide to 2061.25. The last 60-90 minutes recovered the morning''s low up to 2075.00.

Overnight action''s new info...
Choppy sideways ranging touched as high as 2077.50 after midnight. A 10-point drop to 2067.50 into Europe''s opens was consolidated, but ultimately resolved down another 10 points  to 2057.00. Similar to yesterday, that has bounced to test the overnight drop''s initial low up to 2070.00.

If, then...
Did sellers overplay their hand overnight? Yesterday''s decline didn''t gain traction (because only its 2:30 bias environment exit was bearish). That''s not necessarily bullish, and anyway, the low''s buyers were rewarded fully already -- the late bounce that completed a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the mid-day downleg. The overnight slide''s threat to resume the decline seems to have lacked sponsorship, since it has bounced 13 points, and well back above yesterday''s lows. Nevertheless, the bounce is just touching what is now resistance at this morning''s 2070.00 bias-down signal. Not recovering it through the open can be as bearish as yesterday''s failed opening test of its bias-up signal''s resistance.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2072.25-2073.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2070.00 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2066.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.


Market is Open, Here's What to Expect - 10:50 AM

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Now, about actually getting out of the hole...

The market may have stopped digging itself a deeper hole by triggering no-bias. The 9:45 preliminary recovery above 2072.25-2073.00 made the 2070.00 bias-down signal unlikely to trigger at 10:15. And it did not.

More so, 2070.00 was tested post-open. So, having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2080.50 bias-up signal is in-play.

Recovering 2080.50 remains the critical difference between no longer digging a hole, and actually exiting it. Exiting the hole, by the way, before tomorrow''s Employment Situation report floods it with more sellers.

Timing is critical, since this afternoon''s price action could become paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of tomorrow''s report. So, extending well above 2080.50 through the noon hour would be helpful to allow room for sellers without damaging the chart.

Meanwhile, back under 2070.00 would start to signal the shovel''s are back at work.


Tonight's Market Predictions - 11:59 AM

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THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2091.25
2086.00
...would target 2097.00
2092.00
Bias-down: under 2080.50
2075.50
...would target 2075.00
2069.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.


Daily Spot... Euro target and Bond target both reacting sharply. - 2:38 PM

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A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday''s two attacks on the rally''s 1.1380 target were nevertheless probed overnight before reversing to gap down Thursday morning. Two consecutive closes under 1.1315 would start to deflate the bubble that formed during the past week. The bubble can otherwise further inflate to 1.1545.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
After holding the 1194.50 bounce limit, an aggressive drop overnight through 1187.00 to 1178.00 helped to compensate for Wednesday''s attacks on it that had held. New lows remain in-play so long as bounces now hold 1182.70.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The open''s gap down to 16.15 support reacted up to 16.50 resistance. Each held, with no new signal being generated.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Room for noise under the 154-02 target at 153-10 was tested overnight down to 153-10, and reacted up sharply before the open to gap up and extend intraday to 156-00.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The pullback from having met the 62.45 target extended overnight and Thursday morning down to 58.49. Back above 59.35 would stop the reversal down, which otherwise has no objective, just as there is no outstanding target above.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Although Thursday''s EIA report wasn''t being greeted from a position of weakness, the pattern was still more vulnerable to a corrective dip than to extending the rally. Its 2.63-2.67 pullback potential was hardly attacked by Thursday''s 2071.00 low.


Tomorrow's Day Trading Predictions - 5:03 PM

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. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2091.25
2086.00
...would target 2096.50
2091.25
Bias-down: under 2083.75
2078.50
...would target 2078.00
2072.75
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.