Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... The decline was free to resume at any time following Wednesday's inside day. Its late 17-point drop from 2897.00 had started the ball rolling. Thursday's open was greeted under Tuesday's 2862.50 prior low, on the way down to 2837.00. It held a retest at the bias environment, snapping back up to attack 2875.00 during the noon hour. Another 2 points higher into the bias environment exit was reversed by a 17-point drop -- a little earlier than Wednesday, leaving plenty of time for recovering back up to 2876.00 before the close. Overnight action's new info... An encouraging Trump China trade tweet triggered an early evening surge to 2889.00. A volatile range erupted but never improved. And the lack of any follow-up finally sent price down to 2858.00 before midnight, then down to 2852.50 after midnight. Interim double-digit bounces made the drop seem more substantial than it was. But it wasn't quite the blowout feared, and it has been retraced. Bouncing up to 2875.00 into Europe's opens has since ranged sideways around 2867.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) With the tariff hike priced in and hopes still high for reaching a deal, price action may be very volatile within a wide range. Another rally effort would likely test 2892.00-2894.00, or probe above it, but probably only briefly as Thursday's pattern wasn't accumulative. The potential retest of Thursday's low didn't begin from hiking tariffs, so its eventual test could be more organic and bearish. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2869.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2864.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2862.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2875.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2880.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2883.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

After testing both bias-up parameters overnight. Regardless of its catalyst being artificial, yesterday evening's surge had peaked upon testing the 2888.00 bias-up target. Its reaction down through midnight's tariff hikes held several tests of the 2857.25 bias-down target. Bouncing 22 points had resolved down to fresh lows at 2849.00. That's quite an overnight range, and still the open was greeted at 2860.00. That pre-open recovery extended through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to 2867.00, poised to avoid triggering the 2864.00 bias-down signal. But it triggered, easily, while renewing the signal under its 2857.25 bias-down target, also easily. The minimum objective structurally for resuming the decline is to retest yesterday's 2837.00 low; done The minimum calculable objective is to test its room for noise down to 2833.00; done. Both objectives were fulfilled by the same leg, an aggressive collapse to 2828.75. That's a lot of pessimism AFTER already having fallen so deeply. A 9-point bounce to 2837.75 is possible without yet signaling the decline's momentum has lapsed. But extending down would next target 2813.00-2819.00.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2843.50 2845.00 ...would target 2850.25 2851.75 Bias-down: under 2826.50 2828.00 ...would target 2820.00 2821.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Twice over. Oversold RSIs at this morning's 2826.00 low will require its eventual retest. Consolidating back up to 2840.00 into the noon hour might have resolved down already, if not for a favorable China trade headline. Its rally is testing the 2867.00 post-open high by 2 points. The rally peaked upon entering the bias environment. The 2851.75 bias-up target was easily exceeded to renew and doubly-renew the bias-up signal. That creates a lot of room below to test the 2845.00 bias-up signal, while still honoring the bias-up environment. Sellers are essentially marginalized, except for that downside potential during the bias-up environment. They're unlikely to gain traction for any effort, not until the bias-up environment lapses. Meanwhile, extending higher could probe the overnight highs up to 2892.00-2894.00.

Friday's 11-13 point gap down to 2860.00 bounced momentarily at the open up to 2867.00, but the balance of the morning fell to fresh lows at 2826.00. The drop's last couple of minutes fulfilled both minimum structural and calculable objectives at 2837.00 and 2833.00. While also exceeding them. Capitulation while measurably fulfilling selling pressure. It's not necessarily a buy signal -- in fact, the consolidation that followed was likelier to break lower. But the consolidation's 2839.75 inflection buy signal triggered first, thanks to a favorable China trade headline. Being a Friday, two days of impending illiquidity can exacerbate normal behaviors. The usual knee-jerk reaction became a relentless rally into the last half-hour. Its minimum structural objective to retest the 2889.00 overnight high and minimum calculable objective to test 2892.00-2894.00 were fulfilled at 2893.00. The last half-hour dipped back down to 2874.00. A couple of anchors were left outstanding at the low. Simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs require a retest. And maintaining fresh trend lows through the morning bias environment usually establishes the trend. That makes Friday afternoon's rally "refueling sellers." Which could be very bearish, greeting Monday's open low enough. Otherwise, there's still room above for more refueling. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2892.50 2894.00 ...would target 2899.25 2900.75 Bias-down: under 2875.00 2876.50 ...would target 2869.50 2871.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.