Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 05-15-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Thursday''s gap up to 2109.00 reacted down immediately as the cash session crowd''s pessimism was allowed to interfere. But the morning''s 2105.00 bias-up target held as support, renewing the bias-up signal, and quickly producing fresh highs. The rally extended higher through the afternoon to fulfill its 2117.75 bias-up target, 2 points short of touching the 2119.75 prior high, and 3 points short of my longstanding target for its retest. Extending the open''s gap up served by proxy to trigger a late bullish WedEX.

Overnight action''s new info...
The rally eventually resumed, surging to 2122.75 ahead of Europe''s opens. There has been no improvement since then, as price ranges choppily sideways above yesterday''s highs. The new high was produced by a single surge from under yesterday''s high, and it has yet to be probed, so it is NOT a "new Globex trend extreme" that would otherwise require being retested intraday.

If, then...
This being Expiration, there are a couple of extra features to the usual Friday Factors. The most important is that gapping open is vulnerable to being the session extreme. So, ticking down immediately at the open and trending down overall through it would warn that WedEX is inverting to bearish. WedEX triggered late, so it remains vulnerable. Avoiding those two conditions -- tick/trend higher post-open -- would diminish the WedEX inversion vulnerability. Whether inverting down or not, trending is likely today.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2123.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2120.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2115.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Shallow blip-up into a post-open downtrend.

The pre-open pullback managed to touch 2117.75, which was yesterday afternoon''s bias-up target, and its last-minute high. All of that support mustered only a blip-up to 2120.50, stopping 1 tick short of my bias-up signal.

The balance of the opening 15 minutes trended down. So did the 45-minute bias timing window. Being expiration, this could signal a downtrend for the day. 

But the blip-up undermined that setup. And not actually touching the bias-up signal prevents actually targeting a test of the 2109.00 bias-down signal. There is room down to it, but no requirement to get there.

On another note, the late WedEX signal is much less vulnerable to inverting. Exiting the bias environment back above 2117.00 would further decrease that vulnerability.

Meanwhile, a fresh low at 2111.75 could end this morning''s selling. Under it could extend to 2109.00.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2124.00
2120.00
...would target 2129.75
2126.00
Bias-down: under 2113.50
2109.75
...would target 2108.00
2104.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday to Thursday''s intraday low was recovered back into positive territory, probing above Thursday''s high. Closing under 1.1380 would start signaling momentum reversing down, but there is no other signal meanwhile.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Trending down overnight to 1210.60 bottomed upon gapping down Friday, with its reaction soon filling the gap back up to Thursday''s 1224.80 close. The 1232.00 target remains intact.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight backing-and-filling to 17.25 support barely registered by Friday''s open, which further formed an Ascending Triangle while retesting Thursday''s highs.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday''s high didn''t hold. The 154-16 bounce limit didn''t hold. Wednesday''s test of the bounce limit up to 155-02 didn''t even hold. Friday''s open gapped up and ran intraday to attack 156-00, which was literally off of the chart for the pattern I was tracking. Nevertheless, potential to new lows remains intact because of the gap left outstanding back to Thursday''s close, and its eventual test will target 150''25. Meanwhile, closing under 154-30 would signal the bounce had failed, and above 156-04 would be bullish for extending higher.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Lower lows retested the 58.65 pullback limit Friday morning and reacted back up to test 59.30 resistance. That''s not bearish, and it''s potentially bullish to the degree that an opportunity to slide was avoided.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
No unfinished business above going into Friday''s session allowed early weakness, but it was recovered to fresh highs intraday above 3.03. Now the rally''s momentum remains intact so long as 3.91 holds as support.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2127.00
2123.25
...would target 2132.50
2128.75
Bias-down: under 2115.50
2111.75
...would target 2109.50
2105.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.