NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
[NOTE THE LOGIN URL HAS CHANGED] Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.Pre-Open Day Trading Bias - 7:57 AM
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Expert Pre-Open Trading Strategy - 8:34 AM
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Market is Open, Here's What to Expect - 10:27 AM
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In fact, gapping up above 2392.00 extended immediately and relentlessly until touching last week's 2400.00 high.
Hesitation at 2400.00 is probably only obligatory. Although 1-minute RSI is diverging negatively, 3-minute RSI is persistently overbought, which often produces at least one more fresh high print.
That's one more fresh high print for this leg, but probably not ultimately. The prior high's retest should visit 2405.00, and probably also 2415.00 to compensate for the delay.
A new high close remains outstanding as 'unfinished business above." Even the open's relentless surge doesn't ensure closing higher today, so we'll continue monitoring for a possible short-entry.
Tonight's Day Trading Plan - 12:01 PM
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Mid-Day Market Thoughts - 1:27 PM
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Day Trading Summary - 4:32 PM
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Tomorrow's Day Trading Predictions - 5:55 PM
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
There is an issue with the chaRTroom link that was in the First Trade blog post. Please CLICK HERE instead. Thank you!
Quick rally retests the high.
If the gap up were going to extend, it was going to extend quickly. That was the Market Tour's expectation, and the reason for being inclined to get long early.
MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2404.50
2401.00
...would target
2409.50
2406.25
Bias-down: under
2400.00
2397.75
...would target
2395.25
2392.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Sitting at the highs.
This morning's rally extended up to 2402.25. Coincidentally, that was the first bar both printing a fresh high and not touching the 2401.00 renewed bias-up target. Its extreme sentiment didn't attract reinforcement, and price retraced 4 points.
1-minute and 3-minute RSIs aren't simultaneously overbought at the high, so its retest isn't required. But the pullback is relatively shallow. The rally may have corrected through the passage of time, instead of the more traditional retracement.
A fresh high would have been credible for resuming the rally if preceding a bias-up triggered by 1:20 above 2401.00. But no-bias triggered, so anything above 2401.00 during a no-bias environment would be doomed to failure.
None of which prevents testing 2405.00, anyway. But under 2398.00 would extend the dip.
Monday's new high close closed at the 2400.00 prior intraday high, after probing above it intraday. Reversing down immediately would not leave "unfinished business above" outstanding. Back under 2397.00 would at least suggest a detour underway.
Reversing down immediately is a vulnerability, but it isn't likely. At least intraday probing of fresh highs remains likely, presumably including 2405.00, if not also 2415.00.
Only eking out the new high close, and sliding post-close, suggests that pessimism remains alive and well enough. Which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Another new high close isn't required, but neither is it prohibited.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2404.25
2401.00
...would target
2409.50
2406.25
Bias-down: under
2395.00
2392.75
...would target
2389.75
2387.50
Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.