Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 05-18-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Perhaps traction gained during Monday's rally to 2068.50 was useful Tuesday in one sense -- gapping open at 2057.00 exited the morning's bias environment at 2057.00. But the afternoon bias environment's entry found an air pocket under the morning's 2052.50 low. A one-hour, 17-point slide exited the bias environment testing and retesting 2037.00-2038.00. The balance of the session ranged sideways back to 2045.00. Overnight action's new info... Relatively narrow choppiness has remained within yesterday's late range. Only briefly piercing above 2045.00, reactions down have only attacked Tuesday's late lows. If, then... It's important to note that overnight action following Friday afternoon's 20-point slide had also ranged choppily ahead of the next open. That open greeted Monday at the same levels, then surged and extended through the morning and afternoon. Similar setups appearing consecutively tend not to resolve similarly. And the market is running out of bullish excuses to dismiss revisiting the prior Friday's range. Gapping up above 2048.00 and extending through 2050.50 could marginalize sellers again. Otherwise, a morning rally would be unlikely without first rejecting a probe of fresh lows. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2037.25 would be likely to trigger the 2039.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2046.50would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Shallow post-open dip, rushed recovery, target met. If not gapping up, then this morning's only bullish scenario would first reject a probe under yesterday's low. Then the 2039.50 bias-down signal must avoid triggering, putting into plan  an offsetting test of the 2050.50 bias-up signal.

Yesterday's low was pierced by an optimistic 2-tick margin. A buy signal triggered above 2041.50. And the bias-up signal was tested up to 2052.00.

No-bias triggered at 10:15. It was almost invalidated by probing above it. But probing above it was retraced through 10:30. This is a no-bias environment, so its upper-end should be defined by its bias-up signal if tested.

A reaction down was likely to test 2046.00 (now being probed down to 2044.50). Overbought RSIs at the 2052.00 high require its retest, probably by a couple of ticks. But, what then?

Even this morning's most bullish scenario was likely to resolve down. Probing under yesterday's lows was no deeper than necessary to qualify. That's optimism, like the steep recovery resembling impatient buying, which can be bearish from a contrarian perspective. And the bounce's target has been met and held.

Having dipped to 2044.50, back above 2047.50 would signal that a retest of the overbought RSIs is underway. Rallying any higher would be difficult with the afternoon's FOMC Minutes release looming. Regardless, notice that substantial intraday trending range is now coming earlier in the day -- we're obviously back in a very opportunistic environment.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2055.75 2052.50 ...would target  206.00  2057.75 Bias-down: under  2046.00  2042.75 ...would target  2040.75  2037.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bias-up signaled, target met. News dead ahead. Trending ahead of an FOMC event? It's just the Minutes, but still. The morning's 2050.50 bias-up signal's test defined the bias environment's upper-end. Its reaction down to 2044.50 was recovered back to the morning's 2052.00 high. Which was retested again as the noon hour ended. This time it was probed, triggering the afternoon's 2052.50 bias-up signal. Its 2057.75 bias-up target was just touched. That last upleg is odd, developing just an hour before the 2:00pm FOMC Minutes. Probing above this morning's high was unlikely, so triggering bias-up is less likely. The bias-up target's attraction is now neutralized. Yesterday afternoon's plunge has been retraced entirely. It's not actually rejected, so the recovery is still vulnerable to reacting negatively to the FOMC event, especially greeting the news from under 2055.00.

Simultaneously oversold RSIs at Wednesday's 2030.75 low require being retested. More so, that stopped optimistically 1 tick short of touching the two-week old Employment Situation report's reaction. The final hour's bounce was likely premature, and the fast-approaching close inhibited new sellers. Otherwise, Thursday's open will gap up sharply. That's the least likely scenario, and it would suggest a major paradigm shift has somehow developed overnight. That wouldn't effect WedEX's passively bullish signal. But it triggered by a shallow margin, so Thursday's open could turn it into a late actively bearish signal by proxy. Meanwhile, keep in mind what I began describing last week as an opportunistic environment. The growing pool of evidence now includes this morning's surge, being the second morning surge in three days. All that is missing now is a substantial intraday reversal... Oh, wait. Done. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2053.75 2050.50 ...would target  2059.25  2056.00 Bias-down: under  2039.25  2036.00 ...would target 2033.75  2030.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.