Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Sellers had missed the opportunity for rejecting Thursday morning's rally, by closing 2 ticks above the 2867.25-2872.25 range. They missed another opportunity by not maintaining Friday's gap under Thursday's 2860.00 open. The consequence was a morning surge to 2887.50, which ignored the 2873.00 bias-down signal's resistance. Its required retracement was fulfilled during the noon hour drop. Overbought RSIs left outstanding at the high could have attracted price during an otherwise listless Friday afternoon. But a China trade headline ambushed the unsuspecting market, which collapsed back down to 2860.00. Overnight action's new info... The origin of the China trade headline is usually retraced, and that was Sunday night's first order of business. But its 2876.50 high didn't extend, and price ranged flat-to-lower down to 2867.50 and 2866.00 through Europe's opens. In the absence of breaking lower, a bounce eventually emerged to 2872.25. And just as quickly submerged. A collapse to 2855.00 was consolidated back up to test 2860.00 before collapsing again to attack 2845.00 -- under Friday's lows. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Thursday morning's rally is important because it was a breakout from the 2-3 prior sessions' range, and also for having once again tested 2892.00-2894.00 resistance. Its breakout wasn't confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Friday, but neither was it rejected. The next opportunity to reject it by proxy would exit today's open under 2850.50 -- which is being threatened now. The potential bullish WedEX influence will absorb the threat and reverse price up through the open, or else that influence is moot. Reversing up should be rewarded at least by retesting overbought RSIs at Friday's 2888.00 high, and then probably extending to fresh highs at 2917.00-2919.00 or higher. Otherwise, maintaining an open under 2850.50 would likely extend to at least attack last week's lows. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2850.50 would be likely to trigger the 2854.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2867.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Met, and probed significantly. The overnight drop had extended significantly, touching 2836.00 before the open. That was already well under the 2847.50 bias-down target. An inverted Head & Shoulders had formed while RSIs diverged positively. This is a reversal pattern, but its reversal tends to be temporary. The pattern's 2843.00 objective was met, allowing a 2841.75 reversal signal to trigger. Its collapse to fresh lows at 2833.00 fulfilled the pattern's temporary bounce characteristic. Potential for extending down was ignored by a bounce back up into and through the Head & Shoulders. That has extended to 2855.75, testing the 2854.75 bias-down signal which should hold as resistance during the bias-down environment. And which it seems to be doing. Its pullback limit is violated, and a sell signal under 2849.75 is being probed. The 2847.50 bias-down target is offering support, but breaking under it would likely test 2842.50. The next lower objective would be fresh session lows targeting 2825.25-2828.00.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2852.75 2853.75 ...would target 2859.00 2860.00 Bias-down: under 2841.50 2842.50 ...would target 2836.00 2837.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

No takers. The reaction up from the open's 2833.00 low got to 2855.75 as the bias environment began. The balance of the window reacted back down to 2843.50. The noon hour ranged sideways back up to 2854.00. The reaction's low was tested down to this afternoon's 2842.50 bias-down signal, which didn't trigger. The noon hour's high had touched the afternoon's 2853.75 bias-up signal. Neither triggered, so this is a no-bias environment -- either signal should define the window's range if retested. Probing either end of the range when the bias environment begins lapsing can extend in that direction. Buyers were only so enthusiastic this morning, while buyers have been more patient. Neither forecasts the range's resolution. But a break lower is still likely to probe fresh session lows and lower.

Monday's gap down exited the open under 2850.50, finally serving by proxy to reject Thursday morning's 2860.00-2894.00 rally. Other than overbought RSIs outstanding at Friday morning's 2888.00 high, buyers get no benefit of the doubt. And sellers do. But that will require resuming the decline Tuesday morning. Already, the minimum requirement to resuming the decline Monday was met, at least structurally probing the open's 2833.00 low. The calculable objective is 2828.00 down to 2825.25. Rallying Tuesday morning would be credible for retesting Monday morning's 2855.50 high. Only its recovery through a relevant timing window would make a recovery any likelier. There's otherwise no bullish reason to probe much deeper than 2825.25, certainly not through a relevant timing window, which could instead signal the decline resuming. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2845.75 2846.75 ...would target 2852.75 2853.75 Bias-down: under 2835.25 2836.25 ...would target 2829.75 2830.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.