Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 05-21-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
The air is thin up here. Wednesday''s opening drop bottomed upon neutralizing "unfinished business below" at 2119.25. Consolidation through the noon hour finally surged to 2132.25 in reaction to FOMC Minutes. The likely 5-point correction doubled, ending the day back at 2122.50 support.

Overnight action''s new info...
Holding 2122.50 through Wednesday''s close didn''t prevent extending through it into the Globex open, which tumbled to 2115.00. Flat-to-higher ranging reached 2120.00 ahead of Europe''s opens. A 3-point pullback has now recovered to attack 2121.00.

If, then...
Wednesday''s probe above the two prior sessions'' highs originated from under their interim low. The probe was retraced entirely, back down to what had been the interim low. Avoiding a lower close didn''t prevent extending down, 7-1/2 points. Isolating that to overnight action would keep alive potential for attacking or probing the highs Thursday. But gapping up to reject Wednesday''s close does seem to be off the table. Meanwhile, participation will begin evaporating as the three-day weekend draws nearer. This environment enables a sudden, steep trending -- and not necessarily in one direction or the other.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2122.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2119.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2117.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Post-open rally is attacking resistance.

The very late pre-open surge to 2122.00 was retraced entirely by the first two post-open minutes. That pessimism kept optimism in-check, and price has trended higher since then. This morning''s 2128.00 bias-up signal was just touched.

Being a no-bias environment, a test of the bias-up signal should define the range''s upper-end. It didn''t require being tested (the 2119.25 bias-down signal wasn''t actually touched). And it doesn''t require holding precisely (it can be probed, either to 2129.00 or to 2130.25). 

Any probing above 2128.00 before the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30 should be retraced. And meanwhile, back under 2126.00 (now being tested) would start to signal momentum reversing down, probably to 2123.25, if not also to 2121.00.

Not dipping, and also not extending before 11:30 comes within view, would allow the recovery to extend. But there''s no requirement for that today.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2134.00
2131.00
...would target 2139.75
2136.75
Bias-down: under 2127.50
2124.50
...would target 2123.00
2120.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Ranging narrowly Thursday essentially confirmed that Wednesday''s session did not fulfill the required third lower close outstanding. It also did not fulfill the required third lower close outstanding. Lower lows remain in-play..

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-lower ranging Thursday continually overlapped 1205.00 whose break would signal momentum reversing down. Back above 1208.50 and 1213.00 would signal the pullback had ended, and targeting a retest of the recent 1232.00 high.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging narrowly between 17.00-17.25 avoided extending the decline or recovering it, still needing a break either way to signal the next leg.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday''s optimistic low  may require being retested, but Thursday''s bounce widened the gap well above the 153-02 bounce limit to test 154-16. A reaction down has room to 153-30 before suggesting momentum is reversing down.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Thursday and extending higher retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the drop from recent highs back to 60.80. Another downleg targeting 55.00 would be triggered under 59.75. There is otherwise no bounce limit in-play.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday still reacted favorably to the EIA report. That reaction was retraced back to the open''s gap up, sapping momentum from the pattern. But an attraction back up to 3.08 remains intact.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2135.75
2133.00
...would target 2142.00
2139.25
Bias-down: under 2126.00
2123.25
...would target 2120.50
2117.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.