Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday's open stretched the rubber band. Just a little, immediately fulfilling the morning's 2741.50 bias-up target. Then it snapped back down. Just a little, filling the gap back to Monday's close, which was at the upper-end of last Monday afternoon's 2725.00-2732.00 consolidation. That stopped short of retracing the entire overnight rally. But the afternoon bias environment's exit at 2737.50 made up for the delay, sliding through the close down to 2721.50 support. Bouncing through the close touched 2727.25 resistance, but didn't recover it. Overnight action's new info... Extending down without delay was likely, as we discussed at yesterday's close. Satisfying an objective but not yet retracing its last support (or resistance) tends to invite reinforcements. Last night's action fulfilled this setup, eventually resuming the decline to test fresh lows at 2717.00. Bouncing ahead of Europe's opens (NO defensive posturing) resolved down sharply, resuming the decline to 2704.50. If, then... 2704.50 is an important area. Its test formed the week-old low that ended the prior drop from 2741.00. Now yesterday's retest of 2741.00 has formed a Double Top, making the 2704.50 area its interim low. After correcting the pattern with a drop targeting 2675.50-2677.25, the rally often resumes. Not always -- a Double Top can be durable. Resuming the rally before fully probing the Double Bottom's interim low can make its eventual top more durable. The downside can quickly unfold if post-open bounces hold Thursday-Friday's 2712.00-2713.00 "higher prior lows" as resistance. Otherwise, any bullish scenario at least requires recovering 2717.00. Meanwhile, the impending 3-day holiday weekend's seasonal bullishness (i.e. flat-to-higher influence) makes today THE day for bigger money to position during maximum liquidity. So, holding or breaking the interim low's test today would likely dictate price action into the weekend. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2711.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2713.00 bias-down target through 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal.

Overnight drop finds post-open buyers. My last comment before the open was that it's being greeted not between a rock and a hard place, but above it. The overnight dip to 2704.50 had bounced back to 2711.00, where a post-open surge touched 2714.00. Overlapping dips up to 2716.25 eventually broke higher to 2721.25. That's right. Yesterday's low. Natural resistance. Overlapping the 2718.50 bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period ultimately retraced it to trigger late bias-down. Already, its reaction down is 2 ticks away from fulfilling room for a retracement down to 2711.00. Holding an intraday test of 2704.50 would be a lot more bullish than avoiding its test altogether. Recovering 2717.00 through the close would be a lot more informative than the open. More predictive, too. Meanwhile, the 3-day holiday weekend's influence doesn't even begin until today's close.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2721.25 2720.75 ...would target  2727.75  2727.25 Bias-down: under  2712.00  2711.75 ...would target  2704.75  2704.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Early swings narrow into and out of the lunch hour. The open's 10-11 point surge up to natural resistance near yesterday's 2721.50 low was reversed down to 2708.50. A lot of that was recovered up to 2720.00 through the bias environment lapsing. Another 2-3 swings have narrowed around 2715.00, triggering the afternoon's no-bias. FOMC Minutes is due at the top of the hour. Not yet extending the rally when the bias environment lapses might still attempt it, but not very credibly. Simply resuming the rally would be more credible for resuming the decline -- and the most credible alternative to not improving the recovery.

Haven't seen a "Wreversal Wednesday" in awhile. Maybe we didn't see one this week, either. Usually the initially compelling leg is developed during the morning, before reversing more substantially into the afternoon. Wednesday's decline developed overnight, and the entire session was spent retracing it. We'll still give it a benefit of the doubt and expect some upside follow-through. That is, unless Thursday's open is weak and weakens. A weak open in itself would still be entirely capable of retracing and reversing up to extend Wednesday's recovery. But opening lower and extending down could instead start rejecting Wednesday's recovery. Reversing down has room down to 2713.00-2717.00 while still being recoverable. The 3-day holiday weekend's flat-to-higher influence makes trending any deeper difficult. But not impossible. Especially since Tuesday night's drop suggests overnight sponsorship is both productive and bearish, and the 3-day U.S. holiday increases the Asian and European influences. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2732.50 2732.00 ...would target  2737.75  2737.50 Bias-down: under  2721.00  2720.75 ...would target  2713.00  2713.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.