Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 05-26-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Friday''s gap down to the recent range''s lower-end ranged choppily sideways, as participation thinned ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. Bounces back to unchanged at 2124.25 held two tests as resistance, with no traction gained either way.

Overnight action''s new info...
Even the holiday''s thinner market environment has shown no shortage of sentiment. Three dips and three bounces, each of significance. Sunday night''s opening bounce feel from 2127.00 to 2118.50 early Monday morning, before bouncing again to 2126.00. Its reaction down Monday evening attacked Sunday night''s low before bouncing to 2124.50 into Europe''s opens. That reacted down the hardest, testing this morning''s 2115.75 bias-down target. Now its reaction up is testing this morning''s 2122.50 bias-down signal as resistance.

If, then...
The likeliest path higher would isolate a sell-off in the Globex-only timing window, to be recovered already into the open. That was my comment Monday morning before Sunday night''s drop had been recovered fully. I did also note that Sunday night''s 2118.50 low could be retested, but last night''s attack to within 2 ticks would have sufficed. The 9-point plunge to 2115.25 may be starting to damage support. We''ll still give the upside every benefit of the doubt so long as bias-down doesn''t trigger, and more so if the open is back in positive territory. But even the plunge low can be probed today if buyers aren''t back in control very soon.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2125.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2122.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2118.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Overly fulfilling one expectation prevented fulfilling the other.

Not already recovering the weekend''s lower probes made the 2113.00 sleeper low''s test likely, indicating an early short-entry. It was tested, thoroughly.

Testing it early could have launched a recovery. But ounce limits held, while producing lower lows and avoiding any higher high. That has extended down to 2104.50.

That''s 2 points under the 2106.50 renewed bias-down target (for not recovering the 2115.75 bias-down target by 10:15). This leg''s next lower objective is 2099.75-2100.50.

Actually, there was an interim renewed bias-down target at 2110.00. Recovering it through 11:30 would seal a bottom. Back above 2108.50 would start to signal 2110.00 will at least be tested.

Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at 2104.50 make its retest likelier. And then likely to be broken by at least 4 points so long as bounce limits continue holding.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2109.00
2106.50
...would target 2114.25
2112.00
Bias-down: under 2103.75
2101.50
...would target 2098.00
2095.50
Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Closing Friday under 1.1095 had triggered an even bigger distributive pattern. Extending down through the weekend and Tuesday morning is already fulfilling much of the 1.0750 target, having tested 1.0870. The decline remains intact so long as 1.0915 now holds as resistance.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Chipping away at 1205.50-1208.00 support meanwhile held tests of 1213.00 resistance to avoid reversing momentum back up. Sliding sharply Monday night tested the next lower support at 1286.00. New lows at 1150.00-1154.00 are likely in-play.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having failed last week''s attempt to recover 16.24-16.35 resistance, resuming the decline Tuesday compensated for the delay. Testing lower prior highs down to 16.65 Tuesday should extend down into the 16.45 area, too, or lower.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The bounce to 154-04/154-16 resistance wasn''t extended before Tuesday''s open, but neither was it rejected. That was exploited Tuesday morning during a broad stock market sell-off, and instead extended the rally back up to 156-10. Back under 154-30 would resume the decline.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night''s dive from testing 59.75 had been retraced Monday, but never reversed. Monday''s night''s dip back down to the low had little chance to recover since a sell signal was already in-play. The drop extended down to test 57.70. Although unneeded at this stage, a lower close Wednesday would help to confirm the trend remains down, and likely targeting 55.00.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jul, which is at a 3-cent premium over Jun] The next lower objective for a pullback was already met during Monday''s Globex at 2.85-2.87. But Tuesday''s open gapped down below it and probed lower. A bounce has room up to 2.90 before signaling that momentum is reversing up.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2109.00
2106.75
...would target 2115.25
2113.00
Bias-down: under 2100.25
2098.00
...would target 2095.25
2093.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.