Day Trading Pre-Open Plan - 7:19 AM

Edit
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday's flat open had improved markedly from attacking 2731.00 at the overnight low. The post-open then surged another 9 points to attack 2760.00, before collapsing back down to 2738.00. Still, the first hour ended with another surge to fresh highs attacking 2764.00. The balance of the session was no less choppy as it worked back down probe overnight lows under 2729.00. A last-minute surge ended the cash session at 2743.00 before taking futures up to 2749.50. Gapping down under prior lows had been avoided, but the session closed negative and under the open. Overnight action's new info... Monday's last-minute surge initially extended to attack 2756.00, just short of an intraday spike's knee-jerk reaction to a Fed speaker. Its retracement touched 2744.00, yesterday's cash session close equivalent, and natural support. The next two reactions were a lower high and higher low that formed a Symmetrical Triangle, which Europe's opens triggered. Its breakout has extended back up to yesterday morning's high testing 2764.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) PROGRAMMING NOTE: I'M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS THROUGH THE OPEN UNTIL 11:00 ET... Yesterday's close maintained the template that suggests the environment is prone to substantially wide-ranging. More so, already having ranged widely Monday, Tuesday becomes more vulnerable to a singular substantial trend. That would reinforce the open's indication of gapping up to and through Monday afternoon's 2757.00 high, which could form a bullish "session-long rally" setup. Keep in mind that hurdle will include any prior high tested at the open, which could be yesterday morning's 2764.00 high. Also, attempting to form a bullish setup, but failing, can be as bearish as it would have been bullish. So, failing to fully form the session-long rally could instead trend down substantially to 2725.25-2727.75, next. [Please watch the Market Tour video's first several minutes to see these opening permutations described visually.] First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2761.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2757.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2750.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2749.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Stock Market Opening Signals - 10:54 AM

Edit
Session-long rally setup triggered. The overnight test of yesterday morning's 2764.00 high was exceeded to 2772.50 pre-open. Its post-open reaction down to 2764.00 nevertheless overlapped Friday morning's 2769.50 high at 9:45 -- at least not rejecting the prior high's test -- to form a "session-long rally" setup.

The session-long rally setup expects all but one intraday timing window to probe its prior timing window's high. Already, the open's 2774.50 high has been probed up to 2780.50 during the bias environment.

The noon hour might probe the bias environment's high, unless the noon hour is the one exception, in which case the afternoon bias environment would likely probe the noon hour's high. And so on.

Presently, a Close-quarters Double Top at 2780.50 (circled red) has reacted down to its ~2773.00 objective (circled green). Back above 2776.25 (now being tested) would start to signal the rally is resuming, or at least that the pullback has ended. A fresh low under 2771.75 would start to signal a deeper detour underway. Any pullback must hold above the prior timing window's low to maintain the uptrend, or else the setup is failing.

Tonight's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 11:59 AM

Edit
TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2792.50 2792.75 ...would target 2798.50 2798.75 Bias-down: under 2784.25 2784.75 ...would target 2778.00 2778.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Day Trading Mid-Day Update - 1:48 PM

Edit
Held up, but holed up. Surging into this morning's bias-environment had formed a Close-quarters Double Top at 2780.50 which reacted down to its ~2773.00 pullback objective. The rally was likely to resume, which it did, almost immediately. That quickly wasn't required, so optimism is high. Extending higher filled the gap back up to Thursday's 2789.25-2790.50 close. Its resistance was corrected down to 2785.00. But no lower, which would have been acceptable. So, optimism is high. Still extending higher during the noon hour pierced 2795.00. That's often the timing window a "session-long rally" doesn't include. But not this time, despite already gapping up and rallying so sharply. So, optimism is high. Now fresh highs testing 2795.50 are probing above this afternoon's 2789.25 bias-up signal. It's too late to trigger, or to invoke the grace period. It's also too late to invalidate no-bias, but probing a fresh high tried that anyway. So, optimism is high. A high degree of optimism is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective, but not a sell signal. Not, yet. The afternoon bias environment has now produced its own probe above the prior timing window's high, if only by 1 tick. The final 60-90 minutes is very likely to be the session-long rally's exception, trading flat-to-lower... if not lower. Meanwhile, this is a no-bias environment, so trending in either direction beyond the 2785.00-2789.25 bias signals during the noon hour would likely retrace.

Closing Thoughts - 4:32 PM

Edit
Tuesday's gap up above Monday afternoon's 2757.00 highs followed Monday's downtrend into its 2728.75 low, which qualified as downtrending into the close (ignoring its irrelevant last-minute surge). Prior-prior highs up to 2864.00 were also recovered through the open, or at least not rejected, forming a "session-long rally." Every timing window is expected to probe its prior timing window's high. Usually there's one exception, and usually it's the noon hour. Tuesday's exception was the position-squaring window, which could hardly wait to lapse before also probing fresh highs. And by then the setup expected that not trending down would default to rallying sharply. The likely objective was "higher prior lows" at 2807.00. Thehe position-squaring window's exit surged through the prior window's 2797.50 high to 2805.50 at the close. Some follow-through into the next morning is usual, but not necessarily maintained nor immune to reversing down. Beware the latter, reversal-down risk, after so much intraday optimism comes into resistance on the week's most liquid session. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Tomorrow's Market Predictions - 5:55 PM

Edit
WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2807.25 2807.50 ...would target 2815.50 2815.75 Bias-down: under 2798.00 2798.50 ...would target 2792.00 2792.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.