Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday was essentially the third consecutive session that ranged narrowly intraday. Thursday's range was the narrowest, fluctuating around the prior two days' lows before closing at the range's lower-end. This was despite two separate overnight dips well under Wednesday's ~3098.00 lows down to 3064.00 and 3073.50. The morning's 3116.25 bias objective became unfinished business left outstanding above. The final hour's 20-point bounce barely touched its 3106.00 objective before closing back at 3098.00-3102.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The dip into Thursday's close quickly recovered and extended up directly to 3117.00, neutralizing the intraday unfinished business there. Its reaction fell just as quickly down to 3095.00. All before midnight. Narrow ranging around unchanged started resolving up ahead of Europe's opens, extending through the earlier high. Another consolidation has also resolved up to test 3131.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) DID YOU MISS LAST NIGHT'S WORKSHOP? WATCH IT HERE... Friday's quad-witch expiration has likely been inhibiting sponsorship. Last night's trending doesn't ensure a breakout from the ongoing intraday range, having established that disappointing pattern on the two prior nights. And trending up sharply last night just back to the intraday range's upper-end could spend the day reversing back down to its lower-end. Breakout and trending chances improve as expiration moves behind us and into the rear view mirror. Greeting the open any higher, and/or trending up through the opening 15 minutes, would suggest rallying into the weekend. Four Fed speakers, including Fed Chair Powell after noon, should enhance volatility, if not also optimistic reactions. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3111.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3116.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3120.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 3133.00 would be likely to also exceed the 3129.25 bias-up target and renew the bias-up signal.

Room for a deeper pullback? Extending the overnight rally eventually formed an Ascending Triangle that broke higher to attack 3145.00. My pre-open update described the pattern's common resolution of at least retracing the Triangle, if not also reversing it. A simple pullback was likely to test the week's earlier lower prior highs at 3127.00. Trending down through the opening 15 minutes reinforced the pullback playing out, which soon tested my objective by 1 point down to 3126.00. Its reaction has resolved down to now test 3121.50. Threatening the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap supports at 3121.00 and 3117.50, and potentially the 3116.25 bias-up signal itself. None of which would damage the rally's chart, and its potential for resolving up into the weekend. Any lower after the bias-up environment has lapsed would become more vulnerable to trending down sharply.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3138.25 3127.25 ...would target 3152.00 3141.00 Bias-down: under 3119.00 3108.00 ...would target 3108.75 3097.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Expiration paradigm shift. Trending down through the opening 15 minutes on expiration created a challenge to resuming the overnight rally up to 3145.00. An interim pullback to 3127.00 was likely, regardless of the resolution. Its 12-point reaction up was forming the recovery, but for a Florida COVID headline that spiked down to 3115.00. Testing the 3116.25 bias-up signal was not necessarily bearish during a bias-up environment. Testing 3116.25 after the window came within view was no longer required to hold. And after correcting the headline's knee-jerk reaction by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}, the decline resumed. The decline then accelerated into the noon hour as news of Apple shutting stores kicked the earlier COVID headline while it was lying on the ground. Bias-down parameters were broken sharply down to 3078.50. Its reaction up to 3105.00 was retraced almost entirely, renewing the bias-down signal and probing under its 3088.00 renewed bias-down target. So, the risk to extending down deeper today is significant. The next relevant attraction below is sharply lower at 3053.50 or 3045.00. And once expiration gets its teeth into a session, it rarely lets go. Meanwhile, it's also not uncommon for trending Friday mornings to be followed by afternoon sideways ranging -- however choppy. So, I'll expect the latter, but another fresh low would start signaling the former.

Thursday had rallied 20 points in the close, and eventually 40 more points overnight to attack 3145.00. The market had been bursting at its seams to start trending, and probing the multi-session range's upper-end would have targeted last week's Island 45-50 points higher. But the overnight rally had only stretched the rubber band. Trending down through expiration's open added a challenge to resuming the rally, and a significant consequence for failing. Perhaps thanks only to several COVID headlines, selling accelerated into the noon hour's 3078.50 low. Having trended Friday morning, the afternoon was likelier only to range sideways, or else to extend down sharply. It did both. Bounces up to 3105.00 resolved down to lower and lower lows, finally breaking the noon hour low as the post-close expiration phenomenon once again ticked relentlessly through the close. The next lower objective was attacked to within 4 points at 3057.00, 27 points under the cash session close. Friday afternoon's pattern had potential to be bullish. And still does, by gapping enough and rallying through Monday's open. But the pattern's usual bullish resolution would have closed already at fresh afternoon highs. COVID news hasn't been new, only more of the same with a growth rate. Barring any separate weekend developments, Monday should gap up sharply and run if expiration exacerbated Friday's headline reactions. Not immediately rejecting Friday's late collapse could instead gap down sharply to 3053.50, 3045.00, or even to attack 3030.00. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3111.25 3090.25 ...would target 3122.00 3111.00 Bias-down: under 3078.00 3067.00 ...would target 3063.75 3052.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.