Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday's post-close surge up to 2939.00 was also Friday mornings bias-up target, and it held. It was tested briefly a couple more times overnight, before being probed more substantially at Friday's open. That was also brief, but its reaction back down to the morning's 2933.25 bias-up signal also held. The noon hour probed higher highs that attacked the afternoon's 2945.00 bias-up target, and its reaction back down to 2935.00 missed the 3:10-3:20 Proxy Window that would have given sellers downside traction. Although that setup would have melted down into the close, it didn't require the opposite -- a melt-up. But just firming through the 3:37-3:52 position squaring window did melt-up, surging to 2955.25 through the close. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's gap up to 2970.00 quickly extended up to 2977.50, then retraced to 2963.00 -- nowhere near Friday's last-minute highs. The reaction was gradually recovered to greet Europe's opens at 2980.50, hovering since then back down to 2973.00. This has formed a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring intraday retest, usually the same day, although the last one waited weeks. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) REMINDER: I'M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS THIS AFTERNOON. There's nothing predictable or predictive about re-balancing or other one-off events. The rally was already required to exit the weekend in rally mode to avoid trending back down. But what happened Friday was astounding. While it created more room to expend selling pressure before signaling the trend has reversed back down, the overnight extension has also removed the rally's safety net. The confluence of influences cuts both ways, and now the rally truly can't afford more than the briefest and/or shallowest retracements to avoid a much deeper downleg. The next two higher interim objectives at 2973.00 and 2979.75 are met, and already influential -- in fact, they are defining the current range at overnight highs. their influence should be temporary on the way to ultimately attacking 3000.00. And there's still only a brief window before Wednesday's early close for the market to trend sharply and to resolve whatever its objective. The window isn't so brief that it can't include a corrective dip down to 2951.00-2953.00, so long as that's underway soon after the open. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2960.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2957.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

But that doesn't prevent a retracement. Pre-open ranging between 2973.00-2979.75 formed an Ascending Triangle. It wasn't required to break higher, or to reject a break higher, but it did both. It did both, but not until forming an anchor to help ensure that a reaction down would recover and resume the rally. A reaction down is testing that anchor. It tested support at 2973.00 while RSIs both diverged positively. Recovering was possible, and it was attempted, but only up to 2978.00 before retesting 2973.00 and breaking lower. There is potential down to 2951.00-2953.00 as described during the Market Tour. Interim support at 2964.00 and 2960.00 could prevent that. Currently a 4-point bounce from 2967.00 is underway.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2969.25 2973.00 ...would target 2976.00 2979.75 Bias-down: under 2956.75 2960.50 ...would target 2949.25 2953.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

No credible aggressive buy signal before the bias environment lapses. This morning's decline entered the noon hour probing fresh session lows. An ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs kept the downtrend intact. The decline's sponsorship was rewarded with fresh lows fulfilling the lower likely target at 2960.50. And lower. This morning's 2957.50 bias-up target defines the session low, so far. Both RSIs did just diverge positively, but the downtrend remains intact, so far. That's 24-25 points under the overnight high -- a lot of selling pressure to expend with barely threatening negative territory this late in the day. Back above 2965.00 would start to suggest the pullback is already done. Otherwise, extending lower would next target 2951.00-2953.00. REMINDER: I'M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS THROUGH THE CLOSE.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2969.25 2973.00 ...would target 2975.00 2979.75 Bias-down: under 2960.50 2964.25 ...would target 2954.75 2957.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.