Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Fed Chair Powell's comments were released prematurely -- an hour before Wednesday's open instead of at 10:00 ET -- triggering an 18-point gap up to 2994.50. That was under last Wednesday and Friday's highs, and also under what had been the rally's 2997.75 target that had yet to be broken through the close. Wednesday's close held 2997.75, too. Not before the 2007.50 intraday high fulfilled the required retest of last week's "new Globex trend extreme. And not before the post-open 19-point retracement down to 2988.50 fulfilled a negative reaction to Fed Chair Powell's day-one of Congressional testimony. No further "unfinished business" was put into play, but potential for retesting the morning's high was left outstanding. Overnight action's new info... Wednesday afternoon's recovery attempt had reached a crescendo in reaction to FOMC Minutes. Its blip-up to 3003.75 reacted down 10 points, which the Globex open soon retraced. The morning's 3007.50 high was attacked to within 3 ticks at 3006.75 by midnight. Ranging sideways since then down to 3001.00 has returned to 3006.75, again stopping pessimistically short of yesterday's 3007.50 high, and now back down again  to 3001.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Overnight highs might have neutralized the potential retest of Wednesday's 3007.50 high. But the attempts do seem a little too pessimistic, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, and would still likely visit 3011.00. Regardless, since yesterday's rally gained no afternoon traction and held 2997.75, resolving in a deeper reaction down would have potential to 2962.00. Meanwhile, day-two of the semi-annual Congressional testimony can offer predictable setups if price reacts similarly to no more than a repeat of day-one statements or posturing. That can begin when opening remarks are revealed, in which Fed Chairs traditionally try to walk-back or reinforce the prior day's comments, if the market response seemed either tepid or overdone. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3004.00 would be likely to trigger the 3003.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2999.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Pessimistically short, and no pessimistically shorter. Overnight highs had peaked before midnight, stopping pessimistically short of yesterday's 3007.50 high. Overnight characterizations are less relevant, but a later pullback that resolved up also stopped pessimistically short of yesterday's high. Post-open strength stopped pessimistically short of touching the 3006.75 overnight high. The 3003.75 bias-up signal didn't trigger. And the reaction down is extending to 2996.50. Being a no-bias environment, its 2992.50 bias-down could be tested as only noise. The selling comes after a firmer open, which was blind-sided by Trump's negative China trade comments. Back above 3000.00 and 3001.50 should be part of a bigger recovery leg suggesting the knee-jerk reaction is down. Fed Chair Powell is now testifying, and could be a catalyst, too.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3002.25 3006.00 ...would target 3007.25 3011.00 Bias-down: under 2993.00 2997.00 ...would target 2986.75 2990.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

But that isn't preventing no-bias trending. Initial post-open strength up to 3006.25 held a test of this morning's 3002.75 bias-up signal, putting into play an offsetting test of its 2992.50 bias-down signal. It was only attacked to within 3 points before recovering back to the open's high.  So, 2992.50 becomes "unfinished business" below that requires an eventual test. Now this afternoon has triggered no-bias. But that's not preventing probing under the 2997.00 bias-down signal to fresh lows at 2993.75, on simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs that require its retest. Another couple of ticks lower would neutralize the unfinished business below at 2992.50. No lower level is required to hold. But this afternoon's 2997.00 bias-down signal must be retraced when the bias environment is lapsing, or its retest will become unfinished business above. Yesterday's 3007.50 high has yet to be retested intraday, but its not required.

Day-two of the Fed Chair's semi-annual Congressional testimony usually offers 1-2 easy fading opportunities, as he reinforces and/or walks-back the prior day's posturing. That was limited Thursday to trapping early buyers that were expecting the market to repeat Wednesday's performance. But Thursday was ultimately only an inside day. It started out promisingly. An early overnight rally had twice stopped pessimistically short of touching Wednesday's 3007.50 high, albeit coming to within 3 ticks. This is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, but the post-open gap up also stopped short of prior highs. So did a late-morning recovery from probing negative territory, stopping 3 points short of the 2992.50 no-bias objective below. At least all of that bullishness helped to recover from the morning's interim dip, and from the afternoon's lower low that touched 2992.50 to neutralize its "unfinished business." Exiting the afternoon bias environment under the noon hour's low was never extended to gain traction. The day ended fluctuating around unchanged -- and around 2997.75 -- surging to 3005.00 too late to be strong-handed sponsorship. Probing Wednesday's high is only becoming more likely. But nothing will makes it probe any likelier to extend higher into the weekend, other than to maintain its break through a relevant timing window. Probing and then rejecting its probe early enough could find the Friday Factors' impending illiquidity forcing a steep reversal into the weekend, instead of a new high close. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3002.50 3006.00 ...would target 3007.50 3011.00 Bias-down: under 2994.50 2997.00 ...would target 2987.25 2990.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.