Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's late breakout to 3271.00 did not extend higher until Europe's opens, which produced a new Globex trend extreme at 3284.50. Opening Thursday back in Wednesday's range at 3264.00 tried twice failed to recover 3271.00, even with a no-bias objective above at 3274.00. But attractions above were overwhelmed by developments on the ground. The noon hour slide extended through the bias environment to attack 3214.00. Thursday's last 60-90 minutes ranged narrowly sideways, maintaining the breakout from Tue-Wed's multi-session range. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The last 60-90 minutes of ranging sideways up to 3230.00-32323.00 is stability, but not strength, and neither was Globex's initial firming up to 3239.00. Already probing back under Thursday's low by midnight, the reversal extended down to 3199.25 through Europe's opens. RSIs diverged positively at the low to launch a rally back into yesterday afternoon's sideways range up to 3225.00 -- 2-3 points from unchanged. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Maybe I'm not giving the US-China consulate tiff enough credibility. It seems to have triggered a sell-off in China, which triggered the extra downleg overnight. Most of the other headlines I listed yesterday are one-offs and already discounted: TSLA's earnings reversal, AAPL's iPhone delay, no payroll tax holiday... broadening COVID deaths and House anti-trust against Techs will keep popping onto the market's radar. Quarterly earnings is still ongoing. This being a Friday, the morning's bias is often persists through the noon hour, so bias-down could entrench yesterday's reversal back into June's Complex Ascending Triangle. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm Thursday's breakout from a multi-session range. Otherwise, recovering positive territory through the open would keep alive attractions up to unfinished business at 3284.50 and 3274.00, if not also 3288.00 or higher. A new trend high close on Friday seems the least possible template, and the market loves a challenge. Overnight lows already held a test and retest of the next lower objective at 3203.00, where any further weakness was likely to open. Having probed lower first, exiting the open above 3240.00 or 3250.50 isn't necessary to rally this morning, but would still be helpful. Sponsorship either way probably has only one shot at dictating this morning's trend. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3217.75 would be likely to trigger the 3221.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 3225.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 3233.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3237.25 bias-up signal.

Possibly also held. Trending down this morning had all but required gapping down to and/or through 3203.00. Holding its test overnight confirmed its relevance, having reacted up to attack 3225.00. But it was retested during the open's drop to fresh lows attacking 3194.00. That's how the path down today can begin, but also how it can end if not confirmed. Bias-down triggered under 3221.50, the 3206.50 bias-down target was recovered at 10:15 to avoid renewing bias-down, so only probing the pre-10:15 low can confirm the decline intends has taken control. Sellers put their foot in the door, but have yet to move through it. Meanwhile, the pattern is vulnerable to reversing up. A bounce targeting 3218.00-3219.00 is now being fulfilled, and maintaining its recovery would help to isolate this morning's sellers. But a recovery's burden of proof is much greater than just avoiding fresh lows. Exiting the noon hour still in negative territory would be extra vulnerable to sliding into the weekend, next targeting 3170.50.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3233.25 3225.25 ...would target 3245.50 3237.50 Bias-down: under 3211.00 3203.00 ...would target 3198.25 3190.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Vulnerable to much, much more. The post-open peak at 3218.00-3219.00 fulfilled bounce potential. And having fulfilled it during the bias environment, I pointed out that entering and/or exiting the noon hour any higher would be the minimum requirement for buyers to regain control. Sliding into, through, and now out of the noon hour was borderline overkill, but underscored my point. Probing fresh lows at 3191.50 has triggered this afternoon's 3203.00 bias-down signal. Its 3190.25 bias-down target is met to within 6 ticks, so it won't become unfinished business if left outstanding. Bouncing sharply to 3201.50 stopped too far short of invalidating the bias-down, and the bounce's reaction down is now threatening to resume the decline. The decline isn't required to resume, but that's the afternoon's vulnerability. Back above 3203.00 would start to suggest at least a detour underway.

Fresh lows overnight to 3199.00 had reacted up sharply to 3225.00, still several points under Thursday's close. Two more large downlegs defined the session: Trending back down through the open to 3194.00 reacted up sharply to 3219.00, and trending back down again greeted the afternoon bias environment within 5 ticks of its 3190.25 bias-down target. Still accustomed to bouncing sharply, another sharp bounce to 3213.50 was bias-down uptrending that ultimately reacted down to 3196.00. Closing Friday under Thursday's low confirmed its breakout from the Tue-Wed multi-session range. Despite developing entirely in negative territory, and despite its multiple fresh lows, Friday's session only ranged around its 3209.00 opening print. This is not trending, but it still qualifies as confirming Thursday's breakout. Non-trending confirmation sessions are often followed by a corrective session, leaving the door open to another bounce. So, unfinished business at 3274.00 and 3284.50 can't be dismissed, even if a trend reversal is developing. We'll discuss the potential path higher coming out of the weekend if not already extending Thursday's confirmed breakout, and the likely path to extending Thursday's breakout if June's Complex Ascending Triangle is already reversing. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3225.75 3217.75 ...would target 3240.50 3232.50 Bias-down: under 3206.50 3198.50 ...would target 3190.25 3182.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.