Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Friday's close AT the decline's 2931.00 target had only met it but didn't reject it, remaining vulnerable to the decline resuming. Which it did Sunday night when currency wars began with China. The 2883.50 overnight low was maintained its break under 2896.00-2898.00 and Monday's open failed to hold a relevant 2879.25 prior low's support. The next lower objective at 2862.00-2866.00 eventually failed, and the next target's 2817.00-2821.00 upper-end finally produced a significant bounce up to 2851.50. But price only drifted lower, to the 2844.00 cash session close and then 14 points lower to the 2830.00 futures settle -- a difference that usually is limited to a few ticks or a couple of points. The closing drift eventually got to 2822.50. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) The decline initially extended quite substantially, quite quickly, and has since reversed quite substantially into positive territory. The initial catalyst was another China trade headline that hit before the Globex open, leveraged by the thinner early overnight environment. Its reversal back into positive territory might be no more -- and no less -- than the market absorbing the news. The news triggered a gap down at the Globex open to the 2817.00-2821.00 target's lower-end (its upper-end had defined the intraday low). That spiked down to attack 2783.00, and soon made a lower low attacking 2776.00. Reversing up recovered the open's plunge to attack 2824.00, and extended to retest yesterday's late 2850.50 high by midnight. Another push higher after Europe's opens is now testing this morning's bias-up signal to within 1 tick. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The bases for two bullish setups have formed. The question is whether they'll be completed, let alone triggered. The Isolation setup forms from having probed yesterday's lows overnight, and prohibits probing yesterday's lows before the close -- the morning, alone, should avoid negative territory, and its reward is to retrace the current downleg. The Globex-flip must only exit the opening 15 minutes of volatility above the earlier Globex low, which then remains bullish either through this morning or also through tomorrow morning. The alternative is not necessarily to resume the decline, and weakness could be limited to a thorough intraday test of 2817.00-2821.00. This morning's 2871.00 bias-up target happens also to be a big line in the sand for a recovery after the decline has touched 2776.00, although its intraday touch would be more reliable. But if the latest China trade headline's big impact, albeit leveraged by the thinner early overnight environment, can maintain being absorbed, then a big low could begin forming. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2849.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2860.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2833.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2827.75 bias-down signal.

Giving noN-bias a little leeway. Ranging sideways for several hours at and the 2860.75 bias-up signal surged immediately post-open to attack the 2871.00 bias-up target. The first half-hour fluctuated choppily between the two. The lower-end was retested in time to trigger the grace period. Probing even lower to 2850.50 was recovered back up to the 2860.75 bias-up signal. But not AT the 10:30 mark, just 1 minute earlier. That's STILL a no-bias. Offsetting tests of the 2827.75 and 2817.75 bias-down parameters is in-play for having rejected tests of both bias-up parameters. However, that 1-tick 1-minute difference, in this environment, just isn't decisive. So, I gave a little leeway to what would have triggered 1 minute earlier -- a noN-bias, which would have allowed the rally to resume. The bounce extended to 2868.00. The bounce and 2860.75 have now been reversed down to 2854.50. the no-bias objectives below are in-play. I would expect fresh post-open lows to suddenly accelerate the downside pace. Only recovering 2868.00 would signal the rally is resuming.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2861.75 2860.25 ...would target 2870.25 2868.75 Bias-down: under 2850.75 2849.50 ...would target 2842.00 2840.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Session so far spent exclusively in positive territory. This morning's reaction down from attacking 2873.00 extended to 2846.00 as the bias environment was lapsing. Bouncing into the noon hour resumed upon exiting the noon hour, and triggered late bias-up. Its 2868.75 target is now being probed by 2 points. That's still under this morning's high. And preventing this morning's sellers from extending down into the afternoon should be rewarded by fresh session highs. The only question should be whether this morning's high holds it retest, or if the fresh highs extend into a new upleg. Meanwhile, this morning's bias objective is "unfinished business" below at 2827.75. And having met the bias-up target, a door remains open to reversing down, regardless of the likelihood for a fresh high. Even if a downleg were to begin, already entering the afternoon bias environment without yet touching negative territory is difficult to turn negative before the close.

Monday night's 80-point swing was legendary, falling 68 points under the cash session close and recovering 22 points above it. But probing just another 7 points higher to attack 2873.00 post-open was enough to stretch buyers too thinly. Tuesday morning retraced down to 2846.00, barely remaining in positive territory. Not entering the afternoon bias environment any lower earned the reward of retesting the morning's high up to 2880.50. Its retest actually attacked 2884.00. The balance of the afternoon ranged sideways, supported by the opening surge's high. A "W" formed, but too late to require its reversal down. Rather, ending the all-positive session at its highs was vulnerable to a short-squeeze -- and still is vulnerable overnight to testing 2896.00-2898.00 and 2903.00-2907.00.

Tuesday's open easily triggered the Globex-flip setup, which normally controls the morning. And extending higher in the afternoon suggests that Wednesday morning will be bullish, too. Isolating the overnight probe under Monday's range and never turning negative triggered another bullish setup that is rewarded by retracing the entire downleg.

Given the current environment's oddities, I have to reserve some suspicion for the potential to suddenly start reversing back down. The morning's "unfinished business" below at 2827.75 and potentially also 2817.75 would be the objective of opening Wednesday in decline. That would reject at least one of the bullish setups -- Globex-flip and/or Isolation -- so I would assume a much strong sellers had retaken control. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2888.00 2886.50 ...would target 2895.00 2893.50 Bias-down: under 2876.50 2875.25 ...would target 2868.75 2867.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.