Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Overnight dips under Tuesday's 2467.50 low had repeatedly returned to test 2467.50, and to probe it. The choppiness ultimately ended in a late rally that stopped 1 tick short of filling the gap back up to Tuesday's 2472.00-2473.00 close. That was the cash session close. None of which had strong-handed sponsorship. Futures then ticked higher to 2474.25, natural resistance at Tuesday's open. Overnight action's new info... Having stretched the rubber band, Globex began snapping back. Overnight action has only trended down. A bounce at 2466.00 consolidated through Europe's opens without breaking either way. But that eventually broke lower anyway, and just tested this morning's 2461.50 bias-down target. RSI improvement is trying to force a bounce. If, then... If Wednesday avoided trending down for any reason, it is that overnight sellers had discounted the open deeply enough to dissuade sellers. Not entirely, since intraday dips still developed, and intraday bounces were still absorbed. The last one, too, but not until overnight. So, is Thursday's open being greeted by another deep discount? Holding a test of relevant support would suggest as much, and allow a morning rally. But having dipped already to a relevant level (the bias-down target) and stopping optimistically short of yesterday's lows, trending down this morning is likely to quickly resume the overnight slide. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2458.50 would be unlikely to recover the 2461.50 bias-down target by 10:15, and renew the bias-down signal next targeting 2455.75 and 2445.75. Exiting the open under 2463.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2467.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2470.50 would be unlikely to trigger  bias-down. Phonetic dictation... Alright good morning and welcome and we go it is Thursday it's time for Thursday's morning market tour double digits August 10 days double digits in August time flies double digits overnight not at the moment but yesterday's having Monday night or Tuesday and it's going to collapse until after the open is too late either one of those situations would still be vulnerable to recovery let alone actually trending up through the open but that's the flip side is it's not binary it's not a matter of trend down or up if the open isn't immediately trending down there's no requirement on immediately trending backup alright let's look at some other Market starting with currencies the Aussie which did break lower yesterday not extending down overnight not rejecting the overnight or No Yes Or Break overnight but not extending down anyway if not rejected then 78 is in play the PAD as well not extending down it's still sitting here around 1:30 really not a lot of reason to be retesting that at this stage but it is support until broken Looney is piercing lower probing lower long way off from what could have been a queen recovery backup to the high basically midpoint now gyro not really rejecting these lower prioritize being tested retested reread tested let alone breaking back above any kind of a Buy Signal inflection point so that delay is costing it is suggesting that it doesn't have sponsorship and this is the last opportunity closing any lower closing under one 1730 would Target a retest initially of 115 Longmont doesn't really know what to do with itself it's flat it's already held a big Target it was mad yesterday morning so doesn't seem interested today and immediately extending higher above yesterday's high which is the condition the parameter that says the rally is extending and not that at top is topping but we'll see what today ends today does break lower of today stocks to collapse if there is a flight to safety that could be just the kick needed to get out of this I love you say hi and put bonds into a new move crude oil now breaking back up to 50 toward 5010 extended Consolidated range we have to invoke the rule that extending near away or into a narrowing range tens initially to break falsely in One Direction before reversing more substantial in the opposite direction so apparently on our way to retest the high 5010 to some level I would rather we get up into the 51 handle yeah it's likely because of the delay in because of the narrowing going to be only a false break-in reversed maybe so much similarly to stocks as they did yesterday and then natural gas today from a position of strength greeting from a position of strength trending up a little bit of t92 is resistance to 91292 nothing that prevents initially negative knee-jerk reaction down and other than it being outsized could be substantial enough to prove a fresh low that is one nagging one nagging feature missing from the bottom that the retest of last Tuesday's low only developed pre-open don't see it on the intraday chart it was only pretty open not to mention that the intraday went on to stop optimistically short several times of repeating that so just one caveat make it through the eia report and we could have a bottom formed write any questions let me know I'll see you before the open good luck today .

Overnight drop finds reinforcements. Initially bouncing 3 points from a test of this morning's 2461.50, which is this morning's bias-down target, the overnight drop never recovered. The opening print was essentially 2461.50, and it quickly attacked prior lows. Another quick bounce was absorbed and reversed down quickly to fulfill the bearish scenario of sellers taking immediately control.

And the results were dramatic. The opening 15 minutes of volatility ended at what would have been the 2455.75 renewed bias-down target. Its reaction up to 2460.00 really let go with a plunge to 2449.00.

Although that last plunge is now bouncing back up to 2455.75, the mold is already set. The initial bounce from 2455.75 could have ended the drop -- 9:45 was the low print, RSIs diverged positively on its retest, and its bounce limit was violated. But not only were the conditions not exploited, an attempt failed. There is no second bite at that apple this morning, and all bounces to whatever degree should also fail. Back under 2453.75 would start to signal the decline resuming. And the decline should resume regardless, so long as 2458.25 isn't recovered.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2456.75 2454.75 ...would target  2462.75  2460.75 Bias-down: under  2448.00  2446.00 ...would target  2443.00  2441.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Noon hour lows not extending. Failing to absorb the open's dip meant trending down through the morning. And probably also the noon hour. The morning bias environment did lapse at fresh session lows around 2447.00. The noon hour probed down to 2442.75. And now the afternoon bias environment is being entered back above 2447.00 up to 2450.00. Are sellers done for the day? Having held the 2446.00 bias-down signal instead of triggering it, there's no bias-down target in-play. And this morning's doubly-renewed 2445.75 bias-down target was already tested. But until today's series of lower lows and lower highs is reversed, the pattern will remain vulnerable to resuming the decline. Back above 2452.00 would suggest a bigger bounce is forming. But under 2447.00 could probe fresh session lows, even during the no-bias environment.

Gapping down Thursday under Wednesday afternoon's ~2463.00 low formed a "session-long decline" setup, which was confirmed by extending down through the open. All but one timing window probed the prior timing window's low, the exception being the afternoon bias environment. It completed a bounce from 2442.75 to 2453.75. The balance of the session melted down to 2435.75. That's 36 points under Wednesday's 2471.75 close, and 53 points under Tuesday's 2488.50 high. Thursday was also a breakout close. Tuesday's temporary surge had closed back under the range's upper-end, and Wednesday's break had ranged choppily around its lower-end. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm the breakout, and require an eventual third lower close. Not closing Friday back above 2459.50 would also require an eventual third lower close. That was the interim low under which Thursday's close has formed a trend reversal setup. The next lower objective is 2425.25, likely to be probed by at least 4 points. Any post-open weakness Friday would likely fulfill it intraday.  Or, Friday's open may gap down under it and extend deeper into the weekend... and out of it. Of course, lower lows may be avoided altogether -- albeit temporarily -- by avoiding any post-open weakness. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2445.50  2443.25 ...would target  2452.50  2450.50 Bias-down: under  2438.25 2436.25 ...would target  2433.00  2430.75 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.