Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday was a second consecutive gap up open, and ranged sideways as is typical for the setup. But not before trying to extend the trend -- up from Wednesday's 2938.50 close to open at 2966.00, then up to 2986.50 through the bias timing window. The rally ended there, pulling back to 2972.00 through the noon hour. The pullback was retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} up to 2981.00 before the last half-hour, which tumbled back down to 2972.00, probably from anxiousness ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report. Thursday qualified as a breakout from a multi-session range. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) Thursday's late collapse got to 2969.50. But the Globex open soon proved its sponsorship was weak-handed anxiousness by recovering back through the collapse's origin to 2982.00. Another reaction attacking 2974.00 below was also recovered through Europe's opens, attacking 2984.00 above. Price has edged higher to attack 2986.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Thursday's breakout still needs confirmation from a second consecutive higher close today. Desperately, considering that sideways ranging breakouts are not optimal for immediate continuation. Being the morning's only pre-open report and and the session's only influential report, payroll's ultimate reaction will probably be the session's deciding factor. "Ultimate" reaction, which depends on whether the first post-open trending attempt outlasts its timing window. This being a Friday, that can persist through the noon hour, or else reverse direction for the balance of the session. Nearby attractions below are the Gap-to-gap 38.2-61.8 retracements at 2955.50 and 2949.00. The next significant higher objectives are 2997.75 and then 3014.00-3016.00. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) There are no preliminary indications before an Employment Situation report.

Nothing to see, move along. Sellers needed not only to be the immediate aggressors, but also productive, to produce trending this morning. They were immediate, but not quite productive, only attacking yesterday's 2972.00 futures close. And their probe under yesterday's 2975.75 cash session close was limited to 10-11 minutes. Their failure should produce a rally. Buyers taking control weren't likely to be quick about recovering, and they certainly haven't been. But late bias-up did trigger, and fresh post-open highs are testing 2983.00. The 2985.50 bias-up target is in-play. Often, Friday's trend in the morning and then chop around in the afternoon. Nothing requires trending up this morning, or today. But not trending this morning would still leave the door open to trending this afternoon, presumably up in this pattern.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2986.00 2986.50 ...would target 2993.00 2993.50 Bias-down: under 2976.50 2977.00 ...would target 2968.50 2969.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Fed Chair Powell stretches the rubber band. The open's dip attacking 2972.00 had stretched the rubber band, which snapped back up to 2984.25. Still short of its objective to test the morning's 2985.50 bias-up signal, which became "unfinished business." Drifting through the noon hour ahead of Fed Chair Powell's 12:30 speech finally reacted down on his remarks, testing this afternoon's 2977.00 bias-down signal. It held, and snapped back up again until testing the 2985.50 unfinished business. This afternoon's 2986.50 bias-up signal could still be tested during the no-bias environment, and probed later. Neither is required, nor is trending up into the weekend -- although that remains possible if not also likely.

Friday's narrow-ranging session wasn't unusual for Fridays. It was unusual for being kicked-off by the monthly Employment Situation report. The intraday range was choppy, but barely tried trending in either direction. Thursday's late collapse to 2969.50 had been recovered entirely overnight to confirm its sellers were weak-handed. Overnight optimism up to 2988.25 was corrected by reacting down on the pre-open news, and then lower to 2972.25 through the open. Any deeper would have triggered a break lower, but that was it for sellers until late-afternoon. Interim price action had eventually attacked 2986.00 entering the afternoon's bias environment. Any higher would have drifted up into the close, but the window only drifted lower. The session ended dipping back down to 2977.00, holding the bias-down signal for a third time intraday, and expending selling pressure without gaining traction for the effort. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2984.50 2984.50 ...would target 2991.50 2991.50 Bias-down: under 2975.75 2975.75 ...would target 2968.75 2968.75 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.