Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) The monthly Employment Situation report used to be the most reliable catalyst for triggering volatility or trending, but not Friday. Narrow ranges aren't unusual for Fridays otherwise, especially when entered within the prior session's range. Thursday's late collapse to 2969.50 had been recovered entirely overnight to confirm sellers were weak-handed. Overnight optimism up to 2988.25 was retraced to 2972.25 through the open to narrowly avoid triggering a break lower. And sellers were done. As were buyers, recovering only to 2985.50, twice, each time bouncing from 2976.00-2977.00. Thursday's range held, so its breakout was not confirmed, and the weekend was entered with no traction or momentum. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) Friday's late reaction down from 2985.25-2976.75 had recovered 2-3 points into the close. Sunday night's Globex open soon retraced the rest up to 2985.50. Its reaction down was recovered to a fresh high at 2989.00 -- 2 ticks above Friday's pre-open reaction to the Employment Situation report. Choppy, sideways ranging through midnight AND Europe's opens has been supported repeatedly at this morning's 2984.50 bias-up signal, and is only now piercing another fresh high attacking 2990.00. Each higher high lacks complexity that would qualify as a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring an intraday retest. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) A non-confirmed breakout, and no momentum into the weekend, each require gapping up if the rally is resuming this morning. Piercing fresh highs without yet trending higher remains vulnerable to reversing back down this morning. Maintaining or recovering a breakout would next target 2997.75, and potentially 3014.00-3016.00. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2988.00 would be likely to trigger the 2984.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2982.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

And a Dry Cleaners Morning? Eventually touching the 2991.50 bias-up target didn't affect my pre-open update's warning that the move lacked reliable momentum. So extending the rally relied as much if not more so on exceeding the bias-up target by 10:15 as on triggering the 2984.50 bias-up signal. The warning overwhelmed the recovery, and opening within 2 points of the high quickly collapsed to 2982.25. Consolidating narrowly around the 2984.50 bias-up signal dipped briefly to 2980.75, but only to re-enter the consolidation around 2984.50. Still overlapping 2984.50 at both 10:15 and 10:30 has triggered NOn-bias. No no-bias that would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2975.75 bias-down signal while requiring 2984.50 to hold as resistance. And not bias-up that would have put into play the 2991.50 bias-up target. Either could still be met, but neither is in-play. Meanwhile, three of the first hour's 5 15-minute checkpoints did each overlap the same relevant level, 2984.50. That equilibrium doesn't prevent trying to trend this morning, but makes trending difficult. It might be safer treating it as a "dry cleaners morning" that is better spent running errands. Meanwhile, trending attempted this afternoon would be entirely credible for extending.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2988.75 2988.00 ...would target 2996.00 2995.25 Bias-down: under 2981.00 2980.50 ...would target 2973.50 2973.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

And now bias-down target being retested. Trending straight down from the open isn't necessarily bullish. Neither is it necessarily bearish. At least, not in this construct. Not, yet.

But while he day isn't so young anymore, it's not yet done. The post-open downleg could extend to fresh lows at 2955.50 or 2949.00. Its recovery wouldn't be required. The overnight high is not a "new Globex trend extreme" that would otherwise require retest. And the open's gap up above all prior highs doesn't require being filled.

Meanwhile, post-open action so far has only retraced from one end of the Thu-Fri range to the other end. A lot of selling pressure has been expended, while still being within the multi-session range. Limiting or containing today's weakness to the 2972.00-2973.00 area, or recovering back above this morning's 2980.50 low, would keep alive potential to fresh highs.

Greeting Monday's open off the 2991.50 overnight highs was suspect, especially when the open collapsed to attack 2980.50. More so when its reaction up to 2987.00 plunged to 2969.50 at the noon hour low. That was actually a test of the Thu-Fri 2972.00-2973.00 lows, which held as support, still deep enough to form an "outside day." The final hour recovered to attack 2980.50. Monday afternoon's bounce was too shallow to confirm that sellers were done, let alone that buyers were gaining traction. So, nothing either requires or ensures rallying Tuesday morning, and rallying Tuesday morning all but requires gapping up. Alternatively, since the morning's sellers weren't rejected by the close, trending down is only likely to begin by gapping.

But, toward what end? Resuming the rally would next target 2997.75, and probably extend up to 3014.00-3016.50. Breaking lower has some support at 2966.00, then a likelier attraction at 2955.50 and 2949.00 -- probably in a search for strong-handed buyers to sponsor the next rally to new highs. Three days of ranging sideways is now too late to reject Thursday's gap up, although the rally might need to one step back before taking another two steps forward.

One setup to monitor is the "session-long decline." Having rallied into Monday's close, gapping down Tuesday under Monday afternoon's 2972.00 low could form the setup, which would essentially point down for the day. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2985.25 2984.50 ...would target 2992.25 2991.50 Bias-down: under 2974.50 2974.00 ...would target 2967.00 2966.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.