Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 09-16-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday morning's rally developed after the open had held the 1950.50 biias-up signal. The no-bias trending was invalidated by exiting the bias environment above the 1955.50 bias-up target. That tends to reflect serious intent, and a mid-day running correction resolved by surging up to 1973.00. Buyer had gained traction already before the close softened to 1967.25. Overnight action's new info... Dipping initially to 1962.75 was recovered 10 points to within 1 tick of yesterday's 1973.00 high. Another dip attacking 1964.00 is now recovering back to 1970.00. If, then... Gaining traction is usually rewarded by trending the next morning, or after being delayed until the afternoon, in either case targeting 1977.00 and 1185.00. The overnight ranging keeps alive the potential for a post-open rally. Expiration's influences are keeping things lively, and a morning pullback could attack yesterday's 1957.50 noon hour low. That would have to be done early to maintain its potential for being only a detour, and not a deeper drop targeting 1950.50 or lower. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1964.00 would be likely to trigger the 1966.50 bias-down signal. Already under 1957.50 at 9:45 would be likely also to exceed the 1959.75 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 1970.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Probing above the overnight highs. Greeting the open at 1971.00 had ranged 1968.50-1974.25 during the first 3 minutes. Dipping to a fresh low at 1967.00 on news was largely recovered. But the 1972.00 bias-up signal was touched within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. And it was still being overlapped at 10:30. Bias-up did not trigger, nor was it rejected for a no-bias.

This is a noN-bias environment. Bias parameters are still support and resistance, but not predictive. The bias-up target isn't in-play, and neither is an offsetting test of the bias-down signal.

Often, noN-bias environments fluctuate around the untriggered bias signal. Essentially, a "dry cleaners" morning, better devoted to running errands than to navigating choppy and unreliable price action.

Often isn't always. And the reward of probing fresh highs happens to be due to yesterday afternoon's buyers for having gained traction. So, there's at least potential to trend up, but no requirement this morning.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1989.75 1979.50 ...would target  1986.25  1985.00 Bias-down: under  1982.00  1971.75 ...would target  1976.50  1966.25 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bullish can mean there's room for a pullback. This morning's noN-bias environment extended above its 1972.00 bias-up signal before the bias environment began lapsing. And it extended quickly. So quickly that this morning's 1977.00 bias-up target was exceeded at the bias environment's exit. The noon hour extended even higher to 1983.75, where both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs diverged negatively. Reacting down overlapped the 1979.50 bias-up signal within 3 minutes of 1:20 to invoke the grace period. The bias signal barely avoided triggering.

The expectation for probing above 1985.00 remains intact. It's this afternoon's bias-up target, and bias-up wasn't rejected so decisively as to prevent one more fresh high. Back above 1980.25 would be credible for starting that move -- above 1985.00 would target 1996.00 -- as expiration's influence seem one-sided.

But having come already within 5 ticks of fulfilling 1985.00 on the same leg that fulfilled 1977.00, beware of a deeper pullback. That's still likely only to refuel buyers for higher highs, but the buying that's not position-jockeying ahead of expiration is optimism, and that's getting a little stretched.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) One last blip-down at Wednesday's open may have marked the end of digesting last week's confirmed breakout. Quickly recovering into positive territory can now extend higher without further delay to produce at least a third higher close. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Tuesday's 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the recovery from the 1098.40 target proved a launching pad for Wednesday rocketing through 1111.00 and sharply higher to attack 1124.00. The rally remains intact and targeting 1141.50 so long as pullbacks hold 1114.50 Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Gapping up Wednesday from 14.35 support extended higher through 14.65 resistance to fresh highs attacking 15.00. The rally targeting 15.35 remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 14.80. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday's plunge through its 153-12 objective ranged narrowly Wednesday under prior lows, still having potential for extending down to 151-30 unless 152-30 were recovered. Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Days of narrowly ranging flat-to-lower above support reacted up sharply on Wednesday's EIA report. But closing above 46.00 only stretches the rubber band to snap back down if there's no second consecutive higher close Thursday. Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Not confirming Monday's close above 2.77 on Tuesday extended down deeper Wednesday, for what could be a healthy and constructive retest 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back into the prior channel at 2.68. But that extended down to 2.65, the maximum weakness without actually reversing the trend down. Closing above the channel would have greeted Thursday's EIA report from a position of strength, but this is not necessarily a position of weakness.

Even after satisfying potential to 1985.00 and hovering there through Wednesday's cash session close, a post-close surge touched 1989.00. I had cautioned much earlier not to underestimate the upside momentum. The rally has been sponsored by position jockeying ahead of Friday's expiration. Excessive optimism just wasn't a concern. Mechanics will always win out over sentiment. Sometimes mechanics can become extended, too. Closing AT 1985.00 instead of above it, or below it without yet satisfying it, doesn't require extending higher. And Wednesday afternoon's buyers didn't gain traction to earn the same reward that Wednesday owed to Tuesday afternoon's buyers. Meanwhile, having triggered a bullish WedEX, the rally could afford to rest on its laurels and allow a pullback Thursday morning. It's the last opportunity for unsponsored price action, ahead of the afternoon's FOMC events.  Extending higher anyway or eventually would next target 1996.00 and potentially 2020.00.

Details (yes, there's still details) and other markets coverage (yes, there's other markets) were discussed during the post-market Wrap here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/yptkjpk This evening, use these links to monitor overnight Globex trading:  XP-Friendly   ||   non-xp ilinc

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1998.50  1988.25 ...would target  2005.25  1995.00 Bias-down: under  1089.75  1979.50 ...would target  1082.50  1972.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.