Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 09-29-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's 21-point rally from its  2144.00 low had recovered the morning pullback and also its gap up, then 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of last Friday's range at 2164.00. No unfinished business was left outstanding, below having fulfilled the morning's downside objective at its low. The afternoon's no-bias environment was essentially maintained, despite testing its bias-up signal and then breaking higher five minutes before that would normally be acceptable. But the late break was triggered by a headline -- not by excessive optimism -- and relevant levels the break recovered were maintained through the close. Still, trending did not gain traction. Overnight action's new info... The rally's momentum eventually resumed, carrying price slightly higher to 2167.00 before midnight. That happens to be this morning's bias-up signal, which is calculable resistance. Narrow ranging at the high started drifting back down ahead of Europe's opens. That extended eventually to a 3-point deficit from yesterday's cash session close to 2160.75. If, then... The overnight high was the first probe into last Thursday's range since Friday's break under it. The gap up that was indicated initially overnight must be recaptured pre-open in order to resume the rally this morning. That's both because gapping up would dismiss the rally not having gained traction yesterday afternoon, and because the rally has been tenuous anyway. Add to this that natural resistance at last Thursday's "higher prior lows" are not being tested. The alternative isn't necessarily for the trend to reverse back down, but there is plenty of room below for backing-and-filling. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2163.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2167.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2155.75 would be likely to trigger the 2157.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2170.00 would be likely to trigger the 2167.00 bias-up signal.

Neither bias signal even touched. The overnight reaction down had touched the 2157.50 bias-down signal. It wasn't touched again, as bouncing into and out of the 2161.25 open extended up to 2165.75. Having touched neither bias signal, let alone exceeded either signal, this is a no-bias environment with no requirement to test the opposite signal or a target. And with price fluctuating around unchanged, the market seems uninterested in even trying. That said, while a fresh high isn't recovered, exceeding 2166.25 would signal a failed rally effort underway, targeting 2169.25. Meanwhile, back under 2162.25 could retest the overnight low at the 2157.50 bias-down signal, while maintaining the no-bias environment. The next opportunity for new parameters will be no sooner than coming within 10-15 minutes of the bias environment lapsing in one hour.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2172.00 2164.75 ...would target  2176.75  2169.75 Bias-down: under  2159.50 2152.50 ...would target 2154.25  2147.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Back-and-fill becomes bottomless pit. Not gapping up this morning above yesterday's highs already had foreclosed upon resuming the rally, before late-afternoon at the earliest. More likely was a morning to be spent backing-and-filling, probably to 2155.50, possibly to 2152.00, and with room down to 2149.00 before something much bigger might be considered underway. Something much bigger is underway. The question is whether it's already done. The noon hour reacted up from 2155.50 to 2163.00. The decline's resumption barely acknowledged the 2152.50 bias-down signal, and renewed it under the 2147.00 bias-down target at 1:20. Now the 2138.00-2139.00 renewed bias-down target has been met. And it defines the low of a bounce to 2143.50. Back under 2139.00 would target at least a retest of the 2137.25 low, where RSIs were oversold. And that would risk resuming the decline. Otherwise, ignoring the oversold RSIs and recovering 2145.25 (being tested now) could also exit the bias environment above its last relative high at 2149.00 -- which would form a short-squeeze setup targeting 2160.50.

A short-squeeze setup wasn't exploited. It had formed by probing a fresh session extreme during the bias environment and then exiting that environment beyond the prior extreme. But the bounce from 2137.25 up to 2153.75 was retraced back down by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} to 2143.00. And the last hour was spent ranging choppily sideways. Remember that Monday's drop was a test of "lower prior highs" down to 2143.50. So, holding it through Thursday's close does keep alive potential for Thursday's drop to have been only temporary. But closing above 2149.00 instead of at or below it would have helped to confirm. Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at Thursday's low require an eventual retest. Overnight would suffice, and then greeting Friday's open in positive territory could fulfill the short-squeeze setup, after all. Being a Friday, the morning's bias tends to persist through the noon hour. And it's being greeted with a big drop back to relevant support that has already been productive once. So, whichever direction, the session is likely to trend aggressively for awhile. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2162.75 2155.50 ...would target  2167.00  2162.00 Bias-down: under  2147.50  2140.50 ...would target 2141.00 2133.75 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.