Stock Market Trade Signals from Viditrade - 10-27-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s) o Win XP-Friendly entry o non-xp friendly (ilinc) (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Following Sunday night's "inside day," opening Monday in the middle of Friday's non-trending range made intraday trending unlikely. In fact, Monday was an inside day, too. It left outstanding the morning's 2058.50 bias-down target that had been triggered and not invalidated. Overnight action's new info... Gradual weakness eventually slid sharply to probe Monday's 2058.50 unfinished business, down to 2056.75. A choppy range has formed there back up to 2062.00. If, then... Last night's action has probed under Monday's low to barely touch Friday's low. Not quickly rejecting one test then tends to proceed to the next such attraction. So, isolating the tests to overnight action can avoid retesting Friday's low intraday, by already probing a prior high above 2066.00 into Tuesday's open. Otherwise, Friday's low isn't obligated to offer much support if tested, and would likelier be probed down to Thursday's "lower prior highs" under 2049.00. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2057.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2058.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2052.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2053.50 bias-down target at 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2066.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Bias-down triggered late, fulfilled early. Gapping down to 2055.00 bounced up to 2061.00. That was already 1 point higher than optimal for being only a bounce, but still 1 tick short of reversing momentum up. So, momentum reversed down, aggressively. The 2053.50 bias-down target was met to within 1 tick. And it was met before 10:30, offsetting the late 2058.50 bias-down signal which was still being overlapped at 10:15. Regardless, inflection at 2058.25 was triggered. Now another bounce is attacking testing 2058.50 as resistance. Still being a bias-down environment, it's likely to define the range's upper-end for at least another 15-20 minutes. Probing above it any earlier would risk being "no-bias trending" doomed to failure. Extending the bounce back above 2061.00 would start to signal that no-bias trending was developing, anyway. Dipping back under 2057.50 instead would start to signal the pullback was resuming, and extending to test "lower prior highs" at 2047.00-2048.00.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2067.50  2061.00 ...would target  2072.50  2066.00 Bias-down: under  2059.50 2053.00 ...would target 2054.50 2048.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bias-down target still holding, still not rejected. Actually, this morning's 2053.50 bias-down target's test to within 1 tick did react up sharply. And a lot. All the way to 2063.75, which was last night's high. And that reacted down sharply, too, also a lot. Back down to within 2 ticks of 2053.50. Ranging relatively narrowly at the low has defined the noon hour. And soon the noon hour will begin lapsing. Recovering to trigger the afternoon's 2061.00 bias-up signal would suggest fresh lows are off the table. Bounces otherwise should be limited to 2060.00. Tomorrow afternoon's FOMC policy statement is still far enough away that its influence is limited. Anxiousness ahead of today's post-close AAPL earnings are probably more relevant. Potential down to Thursday's "lower prior highs"around 2048.00 remains alive.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today's Market Wrap. Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP)) Tuesday's gap up to 1.1085 still had room for noise up to 1.1100 before resuming the decline, or at least producing one more new low close. The gap didn't extend higher, but it wasn't yet rejected. Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD)) Dipping Tuesday in reaction to Durable Goods still recovered to resume ranging around 1165.50, which must continue holding as support to launch a new upleg. Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV)) Initially dipping Tuesday was recovered to resume ranging around 15.85, potentially to launch a rally to new recovery highs. 30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT)) Tuesday's gap up extended higher to test the bounce limit from last Monday's 158-10 / 158-24 highs. The extended bounce seemed a little much and a little early to be last-minute optimism ahead of Wednesday's FOMC policy statement. Regardless, Wednesday's news would be greeted from a position of strength after closing above 159-02. Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short)) Gapping down to fresh lows Tuesday suggests the decline we've been tracking is becoming more widely believed. A corrective bounce becomes likelier, especially if originating from the 41.50-42.20 area. Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL)) Fresh lows overnight were recovered Tuesday morning to probe above the 2.08 bounce limit that would otherwise maintain the decline's momentum. The bounce limit's test reacted back down to close while testing 2.05 support.

It's not necessarily surprising that Tuesday's weakness didn't extend to last Thursday's "lower prior highs" around 2048.00. Tuesday's lows weren't far below its 2053.00-2053.50 bias parameters, momentarily attacking 2051.00 coming out of the noon hour. But absent an overnight rally, don't be surprised if 2048.00 is being tested instead. Meanwhile, Tuesday's last-hour rally performed above and beyond expectations. It was actually pretty easy, since there really weren't any expectations. No accumulation below, no attraction above, no traction exiting the bias environment. But the 2056.50 buy signal was probed up to 2064.50 through the futures close. AAPL's earnings is all about AAPL now. The broader market can turn its attention to Wednesday afternoon's FOMC policy statement and clues in the language accompanying it. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shwmthv

This evening, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom at: non-xp ilinc

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2071.50 2065.00 ...would target  2078.00 2071.50 Bias-down: under  2062.50  2056.00 ...would target 2054.75 2048.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.