Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday's choppy sideways range only narrowed overnight, but still didn't trend. It didn't retest Thursday's 3012.00 and 3015.00 highs, but neither did it break under 3000.00 support. Friday's open was quick to exploit inhibited sellers, surging through the morning to 3026.50. Like a gap-and-go setup, the balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower to 3017.00. Closing at 3020.00-3021.00 qualified as a breakout from a multi-session range. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night's open gapped up to attack Friday's 3026.50 high to within 1 tick. Hovering narrowly at the high persisted through midnight, and continued narrowing through Europe's opens. The range's upper-end has begun expanding, touching 3029.00 and holding a shallower pullback that has now recovered to a fresh high at 3029.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Last week's intraday resistance at 3013.00-3014.00 barely resisted Friday morning's rally. And the afternoon's flat-to-lower ranging didn't even attack it as support, when it could have been tested and its would have likely held. All of which reflects optimism -- not necessarily excessive, so not necessarily bearish from a contrarian perspective. But if Monday's open doesn't extend higher, or if the open dips to 3013.00-3014.00, then the pattern would become vulnerable to trending down through the morning. A Globex-flip setup could still form since probing Friday's highs overnight is still trading near the 3023.00 earlier Globex low, and its break would point down. Friday breakouts are already among the least likely to be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close. Probing back under 3013.00-3014.00 could extend back under Friday's 3000.00 low. Otherwise, the next higher target in-play is 3035.00. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3027.25 would be likely to trigger the 3025.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3021.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Optimism being well-rewarded. Optimism is a necessary component of rallying, pulling price higher. Pessimism fuels rally's as its trapped sponsorship scrambles to cover or reverse to long. Squeezing pessimists is bullish, but conquering pessimism is not.

Friday's 2-3 instances of optimism never qualified as excessive. Neither did Sunday night's gap up, or its hovering. Its pre-open surge justified a 3036.00 early-entry buy signal. The 3031.75 bias-up target was exceeded at 10:15 to renew the 3025.25 bias-up signal, already testing its 3038.00 renewed bias-up target up to 3040.75.

Along the way, a post-open consolidation persisted through 10:15 that suggests pessimists are no longer scrambling. And it was the first suggestion that optimism has gotten so excessive that it is running out fuel. Now a probe of fresh highs attacking 3043.00 has quickly reversed to probe the post-open consolidation's lower-end down to 3037.00. Reversing down would be supported naturally at the 3033.25 opening gap. But not necessarily durably. The next lower attraction would be the gap-to-gap retracement centered around 3027.75. None of which reverses the trend, and meanwhile the open's gap would want to be retested from below. Back above 3042.00 would start to signal the rally is resuming. If sellers do start being productive, then today's close will be an important indication of the rally's next move. Whether or not probing above 3035.00 is maintained could either reject or reinforce last week's hesitations at 3013.00-3014.00.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3041.75 3040.00 ...would target 3049.25 3047.50 Bias-down: under 3033.75 3032.00 ...would target 3028.25 3026.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Rally peaking for now? The post-open rally to 3042.75 was retraced back down to 3034.50 as the bias environment began lapsing. The 3033.25 opening print did not require being touched, too. The pullback being shallower than possible does reflect optimism. But that optimism has been offset by being restrained during this morning's flat-to-lower ranging. Another fresh high can't be ruled out. Reacting back down from retesting this morning's high, or simply resuming the post-open reversal, would be credible for extending down relentlessly. Retesting this morning's high during the no-bias environment would be especially problematic to extending the rally. Meanwhile, trending up further is always possible at all-time high. Never underestimate the potential for reinforcements to resume the trending. But the burden of proof is on buyers, when they'll by exiting the bias environment still in positive territory.

Monday afternoon's ranging was in-line with a gap-and-go setup, but not within appropriate measurements. Gapping up and trending higher through the morning, then hovering sideways, usually produces a pullback the following day. Monday afternoon's hovering was much closer to the open than appropriate for the setup. But we'll still be prepared for a pullback on Tuesday. A pullback, from a position of strength. Monday's 3033.25 gap up above all prior highs will want to be tested from below if 3022.75-3026.50 "lower prior highs" are tested. Just closing above 3035.00 helps to confirm that immediate selling pressure would be unlikely to reverse the trend down. Closing above 3038.00 would have been optimal, but the close was still testing it. This week's earnings calendar is very busy, and still influential except for Wednesday afternoon's FOMC events. NQs extended to fresh highs Monday afternoon ahead of the post-close GOOGL earnings, while ES did not recover its morning highs, and the Dow underperformed both by probing below the open's gap. At the very least, this influence can inhibit afternoon volatility. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3023.50 3041.75 ...would target 3051.00 3049.25 Bias-down: under 3036.00 3034.25 ...would target 3029.50 3027.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.